ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:09 pm

underthwx wrote:The National Hurricane Center shows Karls 7am Thursday position south/southwest of where it is located today, on a course towards a landfall in southern Mexico where preparations should be made for tropical storm conditions during the forecasted period, designated by the National Hurricane Center....


Looks like mostly open farmlands with isolated small towns down there. Biggest threat will be heavy rainfall in some areas. Since most of the rain will be east of the center, it could reach all the way to Coatzacoalcos, the only large city down there. We have the center moving inland about 50 miles east of the NHC, right into Coatzacoalcos with peak wind 40 mph out over the water.

Karl should be weakening as it reaches the coast, too. Increasing westerly shear is beginning to impact Karl. Very little in the way of squalls in its western half. Shear will be increasing from now up to landfall.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby underthwx » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
underthwx wrote:The National Hurricane Center shows Karls 7am Thursday position south/southwest of where it is located today, on a course towards a landfall in southern Mexico where preparations should be made for tropical storm conditions during the forecasted period, designated by the National Hurricane Center....


Looks like mostly open farmlands with isolated small towns down there. Biggest threat will be heavy rainfall in some areas. Since most of the rain will be east of the center, it could reach all the way to Coatzacoalcos, the only large city down there. We have the center moving inland about 50 miles east of the NHC, right into Coatzacoalcos with peak wind 40 mph out over the water.

Karl should be weakening as it reaches the coast, too. Increasing westerly shear is beginning to impact Karl. Very little in the way of squalls in its western half. Shear will be increasing from now up to landfall.

Sounds good Xman....bring on the shear!....thanks for your expertise!
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:14 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:16 pm

NHC shifted their track east to Coatzacoalcos, too. Only big city in the southern BoC. Shouldn't be much of a wind issue, though, just rain.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:17 pm

Now up to 50kts and forecast to peak at 55kts. Looks like it was able to get a little stronger than I expected, but still shouldn't get much stronger than that
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:25 pm

Wasn’t recon supposed to launch at 4:30pm EST? It’s almost 5:30 and there’s nothing on TT except for the previous flight.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:32 pm

aspen wrote:Wasn’t recon supposed to launch at 4:30pm EST? It’s almost 5:30 and there’s nothing on TT except for the previous flight.

They just took off.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:29 pm

Karl appears to have weakened. Plane finding only 40-45 kts now.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby wx98 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:Karl appears to have weakened. Plane finding only 40-45 kts now.

It also appears to have finally stalled out, signaling the southward turn.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:10 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:01 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:16 pm

Looks like shear has gotten quite a bit stronger now

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 6:50 am

Shear is tearing Karl apart. It's right over the exposed center now. No TS winds NE or SW quadrants on recon's first pass. None likely NW, either. Plane might find a small pocket of 35kt wind to the SE.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:01 am

Slightly north of current forecast track
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:25 am

Definitely moving SSE now. Recon found a small area of 35 kt wind SE of the center in those squalls. Don't think it will be a TS when it reaches Mexico tomorrow night.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:28 am

Appears the LLC is moving toward the constantly firing tower.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:50 am

Very strong tower, recon measuring 45 mm/hr rain rate
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:59 am

Definitely having the LLC moving under the tower.
Tower is stationary and constantly firing.
The only shear I see with the tower is some UL winds coming from the north and is well removed north of the LLC.
The ARWB that was over this is now moving east along with the RW.
Now, a new AWRB is replacing it which is coming from the west.
This accounts for the UL winds seen and the discussions of shear and tracking to the SE.
If Karl hangs on and doesn't make landfall, the new AWRB will position over the TC and Karl could make a comeback.
Need to watch how that tower evolves today.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby ThunderForce » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:56 am

Reading the recent posts... I'm confused. Is Karl weakening from shear and moving slowly south-southeastward, or is it moving slowly northward/stationary and relocating its low-level circulation to a tower to possibly allow it to strengthen again?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:24 am

I am surprised the increase in convection this morning after the shellacking it took from wind shear last night.
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