ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#301 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:41 pm

Looks like shear letting up.
It appears its getting under the new ARWB I mentioned earlier today.
This confirms the shift in track.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#302 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:44 pm

The trough in the PV streamers, well north of Karl, has moved significantly east confirming it is now under the new ARWB
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#303 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:14 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#304 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:32 pm

Looks like Karl maybe stalling out
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#305 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:32 pm

From a ship close to the center about 7 central.

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#306 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:34 pm

Pretty significant change in direction of the convection on the top portion of this radar

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/GUI/vi ... 50_gif.php
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#307 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:37 pm

tropicwatch wrote:From a ship close to the center about 7 central.

https://tropicwatch.info/2022-10-13%2020-29-03-89.png


The rapidly falling pressure is another indication of Karl coming under the influence of the new ARWB
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#308 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:41 pm

More and more of the convection on radar moving north now
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#309 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:44 pm

RAP also showing the peak of the trough is directly south of the MS Delta
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#310 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:48 pm

New fix is going to come in 8 miles SW of the previous fix
Also confirms being steered by the new ARWB.
Southern progression may significantly slow down.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#311 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:44 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#312 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:16 am

Shear on the increase. Old ARWB is taken a dip south accounting for Karl's move back to the SW and the increase in shear.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#313 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:32 am

Karl hanging on. Recon finding 999mb pressure, and the center is still under the convection.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#314 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:43 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Karl hanging on. Recon finding 999mb pressure, and the center is still under the convection.

It’s interesting how, despite its battle with shear and decreasing winds, Karl’s pressure has remained constant around 1000 (+/-1) mbar for nearly two days straight. It also always reforms its center under a new convective burst when shear rips off the old one. Quite a persistent storm that none of the models saw coming.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#315 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:18 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#316 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:31 am

Running out of steam now, convection warming and pressure up 4mb from the last pass
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#317 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:32 am

Yeah, Karl is barely holding on to its TS status. Will be inland within 24 hours, likely making landfall with winds under TS strength. No wind issue for Mexico, just rain.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#318 Postby MetroMike » Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:11 am

Pressures have increased since last night as per the 10am adv. People said this would be gone yesterday. Don't count this out yet.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#319 Postby MetroMike » Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:12 am

MetroMike wrote:Pressures have decreased since last night as per the 10am adv. People said this would be gone yesterday. Don't count this out yet.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#320 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:33 am

Karl is fading fast. Pressure is rising, winds are dropping, and convection is moving well SE of the nearly exposed center. Hard to argue that Karl is still a TS this afternoon. Bye Karl. Just some rain for Mexico today/tomorrow.

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