ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

VDM's report drop in pressure from 1002 to 999mb
Latest center fix is directly under the tower.
IR is showing a well-defined and consistent warm core.

[wx98]

Reading the recent posts... I'm confused. Is Karl weakening from shear and moving slowly south-southeastward, or is it moving slowly northward/stationary and relocating its low-level circulation to a tower to possibly allow it to strengthen again?

Karl is moving slowly SSE but doesn't appear to be weakening. The winds may be lower, but a recent center pass found 999 mbar, which is lower than earlier this morning.

[LarryWx]

Reading the recent posts... I'm confused. Is Karl weakening from shear and moving slowly south-southeastward, or is it moving slowly northward/stationary and relocating its low-level circulation to a tower to possibly allow it to strengthen again?

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Reading the recent posts... I'm confused. Is Karl weakening from shear and moving slowly south-southeastward, or is it moving slowly northward/stationary and relocating its low-level circulation to a tower to possibly allow it to strengthen again?

Karl is moving slowly SSE but doesn't appear to be weakening. The winds may be lower, but a recent center pass found 999 mbar, which is lower than earlier this morning.

It seems to be to be a very basic setup. If Karl moves south it enters into better conditions, relatively. It the LLC moves north Karl gets torn apart. Those strong upper level winds are also drifting south or modulating north and south.



source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[tropicwatch]

They might have to change the forecast from weakening towards landfall to strengthening towards landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

They might have to change the forecast from weakening towards landfall to strengthening towards landfall.

I could see it maintaining, but I don’t see much chance for strengthening to landfall. Hostile conditions will likely follow it south to the coast and it looks like it’s having some trouble staying ahead of them, given it’s most recent haircut on the nw side

[GCANE]

IR showing a well defined warm core but now moving rapidly south.

[wxman57]

Center passed right over buoy 42055. Peak sustained wind 29 kts. Probably a small area of TS wind in the squalls southeast of the center. Pressure up a little now. Not sure it will hold onto TS strength prior to moving into Mexico. I'm fairly sure that the NHC will not indicate weakening prior to landfall. They need to keep the public on alert. That's their job.

[GCANE]

Recon heading home

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Recon was there for the peak, and now convection is decreasing. Center is exposed again. Might still have some 35 kt winds SE of the center over a very small area.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Recon is in Karl right now

[underthwx]

If this question has been asked, forgive me. But as I look at the forecast track for Karl, I can't help but wonder if it's possible that whatever is left of Karl, can pass over the land, into the Pacific ocean, and regenerate?..Just curious...

[GCANE]

999mb
75 mm/hr rain rate

[GCANE]

Significantly east of forecast track, by about 45 miles

[wxman57]

If this question has been asked, forgive me. But as I look at the forecast track for Karl, I can't help but wonder if it's possible that whatever is left of Karl, can pass over the land, into the Pacific ocean, and regenerate?..Just curious...

Euro indicates that the LLC dissipates quickly inland, but the energy from the wave regenerates in the East Pac next Tue/Wed.

[GCANE]

89 GHz soundings shows center of warm core at about 150 mb.
Very high up in altitude which confirms why it is so apparent on IR

[GCANE]

At the top of the scale on 85GHz satellite down-looking radar
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks