ATL: KARL - Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:13 am

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

The satellite presentation of Karl has improved this morning. An
increase in deep convection closer to the center has resulted in a
more symmetric dense overcast, with a concentrated area of lightning
noted downshear of the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that is currently investigating Karl has found 850-mb
flight-level winds of 42 kt so far, with peak SFMR retrievals in the
40-45 kt range. Based on these data and a dropsonde that indicated a
slightly lower minimum pressure than last night, the initial
intensity is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

The long-term motion of Karl is now south-southeastward at 6 kt,
although aircraft fixes and radar suggest the motion has been more
southward during the past 3-6 hours. A southward to
south-southwestward motion is expected through early Saturday as
Karl moves around a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. While
many of the models (including ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON) take the
center of Karl inland between 12-24 h, the GFS and HWRF show a more
shallow system turning westward within the low-level flow and
remaining just offshore this weekend. Given that the ECMWF seems to
have a better handle on the current convective structure and initial
motion of Karl, the NHC forecast more closely follows the first set
of models and shows the storm center inland by 24 h.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear and drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment should continue to plague Karl during the
next 12-24 h. Therefore, little net change in strength is expected
through landfall, although small intensity fluctuations are
possible. Karl is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico as
a tropical storm late tonight, then quickly weaken to a depression
and dissipate over the terrain of southern Mexico by late Saturday
or Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:10 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

The deep convection associated with Karl collapsed around midday,
with dry air and deep-layer shear continuing to take a toll on the
cyclone. The second half of the previous Air Force Hurricane Hunter
mission found the minimum pressure had increased to around 1003 mb,
and the peak 850-mb flight-level winds were only 39 kt. Some ASCAT
passes across the eastern portion of the circulation showed at least
25-30 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, with some higher
tropical-storm-force vectors flagged as marginal. Based on these
data and the latest satellite estimates, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt. This could be generous given the current lack of
convection, but another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the storm this evening.

The last few aircraft fixes and earlier ASCAT data indicated the
center of Karl was not moving very much. Although the long-term
motion is estimated at 195/4 kt, the near-term motion appears to be
more of a west-southwestward drift. The shallow cyclone is expected
to move generally southwestward during the next day or so as it
becomes steered by a low-level ridge to the north. More of the
latest track models show the center of Karl moving slower and more
southwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and so the NHC
forecast has been adjusted westward from the previous track. Karl
will likely struggle to generate more organized convection in the
near term given the persistent shear and lack of mid-level moisture
in its environment. Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Karl
weakening to a depression by early Saturday and degenerating into a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 h, when it is near the coast of
southern Mexico. Dissipation should occur soon thereafter due to
the increased likelihood of land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico this
evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 19.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.1N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
ARE DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst
faded earlier this afternoon. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl
is now a tropical depression. All global models agree the cyclone
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.

The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt. Model guidance
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so. The
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and
dissipating inland by 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2022 4:52 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.

The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.

The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#28 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 15, 2022 4:53 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.

The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.

The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests