ATL: KARL - Advisories

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ATL: KARL - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz.

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:54 pm

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

NNNN
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the
earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation
was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with
at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the
mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any
stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt,
which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The
next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday
morning.

Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time,
a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of
Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank
of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward
Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the
coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest
dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and
the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than
the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward
adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast
is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good
agreement with the ECMWF model.

Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:41 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several
hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the
primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the
center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the
northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to
33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge
of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over
northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this
anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn
and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest
track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with
several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south
motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is
shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of
the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back
westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later
today.

Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after
72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 94.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Despite the ragged satellite presentation, Karl has slightly
strengthened this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating the storm found SFMR wind speeds of 37 kt
and a decreased extrapolated minimum central pressure. Given these
data, the initial intensity was raised to 40 kt on the earlier
intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now.

Karl is slowly moving northward at about 3 kt. A general northward
motion is forecast for the next 12 hours. Thereafter, a building
ridge over northern Mexico is expected to steer Karl generally
southward until it makes landfall between 60-72 h. The model
guidance has continued to shift eastward and shows Karl making the
hairpin turn to the right, instead of left as shown in earlier
cycles. The official track forecast has been shifted rather
significantly to the east in order to remain within the model
guidance envelope. The NHC track, however, is on the westernmost
edge of the envelope, and should the guidance continue to shift
eastward, further adjustments may be needed in future advisories.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Frontera,
Mexico to account for the shift in the track forecast.

Based on the satellite appearance, the deep-layer vertical wind
shear over Karl seems to be increasing. Global model guidance
suggests the shear will continue to increase and possible force
dry mid-level humidities located upshear into the circulation.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast no longer shows
additional strengthening and instead holds Karl at 40 kt for the
next day or so followed by slight weakening before landfall. The
cyclone is expected to rapidly decay and dissipate once it moves
inland.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 21.7N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:44 pm

Tropical Storm Karl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Karl has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and it will replace the intermediate
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 1235 PM CDT...1735 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Special Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





Tropical Storm Karl Special Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karl
found believable SFMR wind speeds between 48-52 kt east of the
center. Based on these observations, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt. The near-term intensity forecast has been
raised to account for the higher initial intensity. The reasoning
for the intensity forecast has not changed from the earlier
advisory. Karl is still expected to gradually weaken until
making landfall in 60-72 h.

The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward at
12 and 24 hours based on its recent motion and now reflects a
hairpin turn to the right that should be complete in about 24 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Karl has improved since early
this morning, but the system is being affected by moderate
westerly shear. The center is located near the western edge of a
persistent cluster of convection that has cloud top temperatures of
around -80C. As mentioned in the earlier Special Advisory, an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb
flight level wind of 58 kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt as it
exited the eastern portion of the storm. There has been little
overall change in structure since the plane departed, so the initial
intensity is held at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance mission into the
storm is scheduled for this evening.

Karl has continued to move northward, but its poleward progress
is forecast to end very soon. A ridge building over northern
Mexico is forecast to start steering the cyclone generally
southward later tonight or early Thursday. A southward motion
should then continue, and this motion is expected to bring
the center near the southern coast of Bay of Campeche on Friday.
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance suite is in slightly better
agreement, but it was once again east of the previous NHC advisory.
Another fairly significant eastward shift was required, but the
latest forecast is now closer to the consensus aids as well as
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Karl is located over warm water but within an area of moderate
westerly wind shear. The shear is forecast to increase slightly,
however some additional slight strengthening is possible in the
short term. After that, the shear and slightly lower mid-level
humidity is expected to cause gradual weakening before Karl reaches
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and
dissipation should occur. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly
higher than before, and it is not much different than the latest
ICON and HCCA consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 22.2N 94.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 22.2N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.5N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 18.7N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Shear is having a greater influence on Karl this evening, with
GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite imagery showing the low-level
center now exposed to the northwest of a strong cluster of deep
convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the storm found a similar peak 850-mb flight-level
wind as earlier today (57 kt), but the SFMR readings have not been
as high. However, the strongest winds from earlier were directly
east of the center, and the current aircraft has not sampled that
area of the storm. Plus, the central pressure was found to have
fallen to 1000 mb during this mission. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains 50 kt.

The center does not look like it's moved very much during the past
few hours, and that is confirmed by the aircraft fixes. A mid-level
high located over west-central Mexico and a large-amplitude
mid-latitude trough over the United States are expected to impart
northerly or northwesterly flow over Karl on Thursday, which should
push the cyclone southward into the Bay of Campeche during the next
couple of days. The track guidance has again shifted eastward a bit
on this cycle, but most of that is related to Karl's adjusted
initial position and not with any particular change in forecast
reasoning. The updated NHC track is nudged eastward from the
previous prediction, especially during the first 48 hours, and it
shows Karl reaching the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in
Mexico by Saturday morning.

Deep-layer shear has increased to near 20 kt out of the west, and
that magnitude is unlikely to decrease during the next few days.
Even though ocean temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, a
combination of the continued shear and surrounding dry mid-level
air is expected to cause a gradual weakening trend while Karl
approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity
forecast lies between the aggressive statistical-dynamical guidance
(which show a little bit of strengthening) and the regional
hurricane models and consensus aids (which show almost immediate
weakening). Fast weakening is expected after Karl reaches land,
and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low, or
even dissipate, by late Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Chiapas states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 22.4N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 21.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.1N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 18.1N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 16.9N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 4:13 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Karl has become less organized since the last advisory due to the
effects of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The
central convection has decreased, and the strongest convection is
now occurring in a band well east of the center. Surface wind
estimates received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft since the last advisory were in the 40-45 kt range, and
recently-received scatterometer data showed no winds higher than 40
kt. In addition, the last aircraft-reported central pressure had
risen to 1002 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 45 kt.

Karl remains nearly stationary. A mid-level ridge located over
west-central Mexico and a high-amplitude mid-latitude trough over
the eastern United States are expected to impart northerly or
northwesterly flow over Karl today, which should push the cyclone
southeastward and southward into the Bay of Campeche during the
next couple of days. A turn toward the southwest could occur near
the end of the forecast period as the steering flow becomes more
northeasterly. The guidance has changed little since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast. The new track shows the center of Karl
reaching the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday
morning.

A combination of northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause Karl to gradually weaken during the next
couple of days, and the new intensity forecast shows a little more
weakening before the cyclone makes landfall. This part of the
intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. After landfall, quick weakening is expected, with Karl
forecast to become a depression by 60 h, a remnant low by 72 h, and
dissipate by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast due to the reduced initial
intensity.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday or early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.4N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.7N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.7N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 16.4N 95.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:17 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern
portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055
indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is
located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only
measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of
around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to
the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more
time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest
winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the
entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening
over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm
when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening
and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the
cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its
anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion
estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is
expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A
southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which
should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday
night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly
eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how
fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing
differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is
close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of
Campeche.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

The partially exposed center of Karl is evident in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon. The convective overcast has a sharp edge on
the northwestern side of the circulation, indicating that strong
west-northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds
are occurring mainly downshear of the center, where the deepest
convection has been ongoing today. Despite finding a slightly lower
minimum pressure than this morning, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
reported flight-level winds and SFMR data early this afternoon that
support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory,
which is consistent with recent ASCAT wind data.

The hostile environmental conditions that Karl is contending with
are not expected to improve during the next day or so. Moderate
west-northwesterly shear and continued intrusions of drier mid-level
air should make it difficult for Karl's convective organization to
improve much. The latest guidance suggests that little change in
strength or even slight weakening is possible during the next 24-36
hours as the storm moves toward the coast. The NHC track forecast
still shows Karl moving onshore as a tropical storm on Friday night
or early Saturday, then quickly weakening and eventually
dissipating over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by
Saturday night.

Karl is moving south-southeastward at a faster forward speed than
earlier today (155/6 kt). This general motion should continue
through tonight, followed by a southward to south-southwestward
motion on Friday as Karl moves around the eastern periphery of a
mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. The NHC track forecast has
once again been adjusted slightly eastward in the direction of the
latest multi-model consensus aids. There are still some along-track
differences noted in the guidance, with the slower GFS and HWRF
solutions moving Karl inland later than the rest of the global
models. Following a consensus approach, the NHC forecast is somewhat
faster than the previous one and shows Karl just inland by 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 20.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 20.1N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy.



Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Karl has a tilted vertical structure, typical for a cyclone
affected by shear. The low-level center remains on the northwestern
edge of an area of deep convection, with an elevated center found
by the plane slightly east of that location under the convective
canopy. The highest reliable surface winds sampled by the SFMR
instrument on board the aircraft were 34 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 998 mb. Earlier satellite wind data suggest that some
stronger winds were occurring to the south of where the aircraft
measured the recent peak winds. Based on these data and the lack of
much change in the appearance of Karl, its assumed that cyclone
still has maximum surface winds of around 40 kt.

Karl has been deviating to the east of the previous forecast track
this evening, likely due to the ongoing downshear development of the
deep convection, and the initial motion is 135/6 kt. The storm
should turn southward by Friday and then south-southwestward by
Friday night as the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level
ridge over west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is
expected to continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico in a couple
of days. The model guidance has once again shifted slightly east,
likely due to the east-of-track initial position. The latest NHC
track forecast was nudged eastward as a result. Based on the
increasing possibility of impacts farther east along the southern
Mexico coast, a Tropical Storm Warning was issued from Ciudad del
Carmen to Sabancuy.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear impacting Karl is expected to
persist until landfall. Mid-level dry air intrusions are also
forecast to continue for the next day or so. Therefore,
strengthening is unlikely. The model guidance suggests that Karl
should maintain its current intensity overnight, and perhaps
weaken slightly before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico
Friday night or early Saturday. Once inland, the cyclone should
steadily weaken on Saturday and dissipate by Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.6N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:13 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Karl remains disorganized this
morning, with the low-level center at the northwestern edge of a
newly-formed convective burst. Recent scatterometer data and
earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
did not conclusively indicate any tropical-storm force winds in the
system. However, the central pressure was near 1001 mb, and based
on likely undersampling of the winds the initial intensity is set
at 35 kt.

The initial motion is southeastward or 140/5 kt. Karl should turn
southward later today and then south-southwestward by tonight as
the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level ridge over
west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is expected to
continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico between 36-48 h. While
the forecast track follows the consensus models and has not changed
much from the previous advisory, it should be noted that the GFS is
an outlier in that it turns a weak and vertically shallow Karl more
westward and keeps it offshore through 48 h.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and
upper-level convergence affecting Karl should continue through
landfall. Thus, little change in strength is likely before
landfall, although it cannot be ruled out that Karl could weaken to
a depression before reaching the coast. After landfall, the
cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate between 36-48 h. Even,
if the cyclone stays over water longer as suggested by the GFS, the
generally hostile environment should not allow strengthening.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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