EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

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EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:27 am

EP, 90, 2022101800, , BEST, 0, 113N, 973W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:38 am

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next two to three days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:39 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902022 10/18/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 45 54 64 73 79 81 82 81 77 71 49 34
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 45 54 64 73 79 81 82 81 77 49 34 29
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 46 50 54 58 61 60 41 31 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 2 1 3 5 8 7 7 7 12 14 14 24 57 78
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 -6 -5 -7 -4 0 11 8 8
SHEAR DIR 68 34 60 78 119 211 223 260 259 278 162 177 168 210 219 243 227
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.9 27.7 28.3 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 159 164 169 169 170 164 160 157 156 155 165 144 155 135
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.1 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 3 4 3 6 4 8 5 7 3 5 3 0
700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 85 85 80 76 69 65 62 58 54 53 58 56 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 11 13 17 19 23 25 26 26 24 20 5 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 21 18 29 25 11 9 8 17 42 44 51 43 41 109 68
200 MB DIV 74 84 86 108 133 114 122 130 118 68 57 69 79 56 107 52 131
700-850 TADV -4 -8 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -15 11 -8
LAND (KM) 502 445 387 327 266 214 185 182 183 143 115 88 142 98 -179 -593 -653
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.3 97.8 98.2 98.5 98.7 99.2 99.9 101.0 102.2 103.3 104.4 105.7 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 10 11 12 19 33 39
HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 16 20 26 28 35 41 30 23 19 27 25 3 3 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 51.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. -4. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 12. 17. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 12. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 20. 29. 39. 48. 54. 56. 57. 56. 52. 46. 24. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 97.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 6.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 53.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 26.4% 13.5% 8.7% 1.7% 39.5% 64.9% 31.6%
Bayesian: 0.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 4.1%
Consensus: 0.7% 20.2% 12.6% 3.1% 0.6% 24.1% 39.7% 11.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:40 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902022 10/18/22 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 36 38 48 56 65 75 79 80 82 77 73 60 42 24
V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 36 38 48 56 65 75 79 80 82 77 73 41 31 28
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 59 55 35 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 1 2 5 6 8 6 1 12 10 15 15 37 60 89
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 1 -6 -1 -2 -1 -5 -7 -5 -4 5 17 9 -1
SHEAR DIR 33 74 111 153 227 183 229 256 263 229 174 175 179 222 226 245 218
SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.3 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.4 27.7 27.8 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 166 169 169 170 167 161 158 156 154 153 160 146 150 124
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 7 6 6 4 5 4 2 0
700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 86 86 82 78 71 67 62 60 55 52 53 55 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 13 15 18 21 24 25 27 26 22 14 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 20 31 29 22 3 0 8 19 48 42 47 35 63 79 52
200 MB DIV 85 89 111 134 123 109 130 119 90 62 47 88 66 76 50 73 89
700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -3 -5 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -13 37 -2
LAND (KM) 423 354 296 249 216 186 189 187 179 137 113 130 206 30 -345 -519 -784
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.7 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.2 98.6 98.8 99.0 99.7 100.7 101.8 103.0 104.1 105.2 106.7 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 5 4 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 14 24 36 36
HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 22 25 28 32 42 36 28 22 18 24 21 2 2 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 46. 48. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. -8. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 24. 25. 27. 22. 17. 7. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 13. 23. 31. 40. 50. 54. 55. 57. 52. 48. 35. 17. -1.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 97.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 8.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 6.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 7.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 38.1% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 56.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 27.7% 16.5% 10.9% 1.5% 41.7% 70.2% 30.6%
Bayesian: 0.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 3.8%
Consensus: 0.9% 23.4% 15.5% 3.9% 0.5% 26.6% 42.2% 11.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 10/18/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:04 am

Last several runs from really all major global models have sped up development with 90E, with the GFS and ECMWF now showing TCG underway by early Wednesday. This is a little surprising given the TCG here involves a breakdown of the zonally oriented monsoon trough but given they’ve nailed the recent increase in convection, I believe them. Timing of TCG is important as time of favorable conditions will control how strong this gets.

Image

Image

Image

This is the best ULAC I’ve ever seen modeled in this basin. GFS area averaged soundings for multiple runs have agreed that shear should be less than 10 knots (with uniform directionally flow and low level flow is just as fast as mid level flow here making sneaky mid-level shear less likely) through most of Saturday and while ULAC becomes a little displaced from the cyclone, shear should be aligned with the storm motion and by then it’ll also have a jet interaction to enhance poleward outflow as a trough off the west coast will result in recurvature over Nayarit or Sinaloa. 90E has an insane ceiling with this environment and given the fact it’s modeled to be compact but how fast TCG occurs, inner core dynamics, and stochastic processes will determine how likely it is to reach that ceiling.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:59 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad and
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days
while the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:06 pm

Still very east to west elongated. Needs another day.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:11 am

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is located a couple hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little better
organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form in the next couple of days while the system moves
generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Papin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:13 am

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to become more
concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure located a
couple hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two
as the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:15 am

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Much better organized this evening but this is still a trough. Another DMin is needed to drill down an LLC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:55 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:59 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a trough of low
pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the system
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern and western
coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:10 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:33 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 11:15 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2022 12:50 pm

100%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located a couple hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to become better organized. In addition, recent
satellite wind data indicates the circulation is becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight as the system moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the
southwestern and western coasts of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 2:04 pm

EP, 90, 2022101918, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1009W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#20 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:01 pm

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this RI to a 150 mph+ hurricane.
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