EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Any recent MW images?

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1032816183063347302/20221021.0001.f16.37pct37h37v.19E.ROSLYN.40kts.1005mb.15.4N.102.6W.075pc.jpg

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/926509624142725190/1032814962411839618/image0.jpg

Maybe RI is underway?

Still displaced but it's getting close to stacking properly.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...ROSLYN STRENGTHENS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo



Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

Roslyn looks better organized on satellite imagery this evening.
Deep convection has increased near and over the estimated center
position, and the expanding dense convective overcast has cloud tops
colder than -75 to -80 deg C. The objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON
estimates have increased to 40-45 kt, and SAB and TAFB provided
consensus T3.0/45 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

Roslyn is moving west-northwestward at 285/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As this
ridge shifts eastward during the next couple of days, the cyclone
will become steered by the flow between the ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the northwest, well offshore of southern California. This
should induce a turn toward the north and north-northeast this
weekend, eventually bringing the center of Roslyn inland along the
coast of west-central Mexico. There is still a large spread in the
track guidance beyond 48 h regarding how sharply the cyclone
recurves and how fast it moves inland. The GFS remains on the right
side of the guidance envelope and brings Roslyn inland early Sunday,
while several other models show a slower and more gradual
recurvature with landfall later in the day. Overall, little change
was made to the NHC track forecast, which still lies slightly east
of the TVCE and HCCA aids.

The cyclone will move over warm sea surface temperatures within a
weak deep-layer shear environment during the next couple of days or
so. This is expected to support strengthening, and Roslyn is
forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday with continued
intensification over the weekend. Given the favorable environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the
guidance, generally between the IVCN and HCCA aids. While rapid
intensification is not explicitly forecast, the GFS-based DTOPS
guidance shows a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 h. Beyond 48 h, the intensity will be dependent
on the cyclone's track and whether it remains far enough offshore to
avoid the negative influences of land. The official forecast shows
Roslyn inland and rapidly weakening by 72 h, with dissipation soon
thereafter over the mountains of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or
over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday,
accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of mainland Mexico
from Playa Perula northward to San Blas, and additional watches or
warnings will likely be required on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.7N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.9N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.5N 106.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 23.4N 105.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[zeehag]

these storms are trying to give me a heart attack or stroke.. my boat is resting on land here... 23.1870° N, 106.4206° W , and the predictions are getting much too close for my comfort. these are so much more fun to watch when i know i am not going to suffer consequences of my cheering them on.

[Yellow Evan]

0z HWRF comes in much stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 210551
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 21/0531Z

C. 16.0N

D. 103.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...11.5/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS
3.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 19, 2022102106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1035W, 55, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 80, 20, 60, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ROSLYN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN STILL STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Roslyn's structure has evolved since the previous advisory. A more
distinct core of deep convection appears to be developing, and
infrared satellite images have even shown hints of an eye feature
during the past few hours. An elongated convective band now
extends around the northeastern and southeastern quadrants of the
circulation. Based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB
and SAB, and a CI number of 3.4 from the UW-CIMSS ADT, Roslyn is
now estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt.

Recent scatterometer data and conventional satellite images
indicate that Roslyn's center is a bit to the northeast of where it
was estimated to be last evening, and the initial motion is
west-northwestward, or 300/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning has
not changed. Roslyn is expected to recurve around the western edge
of a mid-level area of high pressure that will migrate eastward
across Mexico during the next couple of days. In 2 to 3 days,
Roslyn and its remnants are then expected to accelerate
north-northeastward in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer
mid-latitude trough. With the exception of the UKMET model (which
is a western outlier), there is very little cross-track spread
among the other track models, and most of the differences are in
the forward speeds after 36 hours. The biggest change in this
forecast package is that with the northeastward adjustment of
Roslyn's center, the entire official track forecast has been
shifted east of the previous prediction, and lies close to the
updated TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

If Roslyn is indeed developing a better-defined core, environmental
conditions could support rapid intensification (RI). The SHIPS RI
indices are now showing a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 30-kt
increase in intensity over the next 24 hours, and the HWRF,
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA consensus aids are all showing RI. RI is
therefore now explicitly forecast, and Roslyn should reach
hurricane strength later today. In 36 to 48 hours, an increase in
southwesterly shear could induce some weakening, but regardless,
Roslyn is expected to reach the coast of west-central Mexico as a
hurricane. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and
although the official forecast shows a remnant low over northern
Mexico in 72 hours for continuity, Roslyn is likely to have
dissipated by that time.

Given the relocation of Roslyn's center and the updates to the
forecast, hurricane and tropical storm warnings are now in effect
for portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Hurricane
watches have also been extended northward along the coast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended
northward later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.6N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.4N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.7N 106.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 23.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 25.7N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 211212
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 21/1130Z

C. 16.3N

D. 103.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Netzero9455]

Anyone have any opinion as to possible effects in the Puerto Vallarta area?

[Kingarabian]

This is likely a hurricane now. Recent MW passes show a small but strong eyewall. Although it's not completely closed.

[cycloneye]

This is likely a hurricane now. Recent MW passes show a small but strong eyewall. Although it's not completely closed.

The plane will tell if it is.

[zzzh]

I think this is no more than 55kt. We will see what recon finds

[cycloneye]

Well folks, plane returns to base.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Well folks, plane returns to base.

Would they try to send out another available plane today? It’s not like there are any other storms in need of recon. If not, when’s the next flight?

[Hurricane2022]

Well folks, plane returns to base.

when’s the next flight?

Tomorrow at 1730 UTC

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES



Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Visible satellite imagery suggests that Roslyn is getting better
organized, with the formation of a central dense overcast with
overshooting tops near the center. A recent GMI overpass indicates
these tops are related to a partial eyewall that has formed under
the overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates remain near 55 kt, and based on these data the
initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. One note
is that there seem to be a tongue of dry air wrapping cyclonically
around the CDO from the northwest to southeast. It should be noted
that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for
this afternoon has been canceled due to mechanical issues.

The recent satellite data suggest that the center is a little south
of the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat
uncertain 300/6 kt. Despite this shift, there is little change in
the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Roslyn
is still expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level
ridge that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next
couple of days. This will lead to the center passing near or a
little west of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall
in mainland Mexico. There is little change to either the forecast
guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory,
and the new track lies near or just east of the various consensus
models.

Since Roslyn is developing a better defined inner core, its current
environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures could
allow for rapid intensification. One obstacle to that, though, is
the dry air currently near the core. The GFS, HRWF, and HMON models
forecast this dry air to get mixed out during the next 12-24 h, and
based on this premise, the new intensity forecast will follow the
previous forecast in showing rapid strengthening to a peak intensity
of 95 kt before landfall. After landfall, Roslyn is expected to
rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and although the
official forecast shows a remnant low over northern Mexico in 72
hours for continuity, Roslyn will likely dissipate before then.

The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane
warning along the coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required on the next advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended
northward later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[aspen]

Well folks, plane returns to base.

when’s the next flight?

Tomorrow at 1730 UTC

So pretty much the latest they can go to try and capture peak intensity. Why is there such a long gap between flights? Shouldn’t it be 12-hour intervals since this is threatening land?

[Astromanía]

This doesn't look good, this could surpass Willa 2018 intensity at landfall and the worst thing is Puerto Vallarta and Tepic are on the way

[Iceresistance]

when’s the next flight?

Tomorrow at 1730 UTC

So pretty much the latest they can go to try and capture peak intensity. Why is there such a long gap between flights? Shouldn’t it be 12-hour intervals since this is threatening land?

The Recon page has mentioned "Mechanical Problems" to the AF Plane.