EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#201 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:02 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 230020
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 22/2331Z

C. 19.5N

D. 106.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A LG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT
OF 6.0. THE MET IS 6.0 AFTER RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS. THE PT
AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#202 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:10 pm

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#204 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:37 pm

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#205 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 22, 2022 9:07 pm

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#206 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 22, 2022 9:10 pm

I wonder why it’s had so much trouble clearing out the eye today. Maybe shear has tilted the circulation a little? Shear doesn’t look like it’s doing much to the core even though it’s starting to impinge the west side
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#207 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2022 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES



Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn remains a formidable hurricane with a symmetrical Central
Dense Overcast containing very intense, deep convection. An eye has
been occasionally evident on the enhanced IR imagery. Convective
banding features are most prevalent over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the system. The
current intensity is held at 115 kt in accordance with subjective
Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB.

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the north and the
initial motion is now near 360/10 kt. The expected steering regime
through Sunday remains about the same as before. Roslyn should move
around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high, and to the
east of a broad trough near the Baja California peninsula. The track
guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion with
further acceleration, bringing the system ashore over the Mexican
state of Nayarit on Sunday. The official track forecast is just
slightly to the left of, but not significantly different than, the
previous NHC prediction. This is also very close to the latest
dynamical model consensus and in between the GFS and ECMWF tracks
which have come into better agreement.

Prior to landfall, some increase in southwesterly shear over Roslyn
is predicted by the global models. Therefore, slight weakening is
possible during the next 12 hours. Nonetheless, given the conducive
thermodynamic environment including very warm ocean waters with SSTs
of 29 deg C or higher, it is expected that Roslyn will still be near
major hurricane intensity when its center crosses the coastline.
After landfall, rapid weakening will occur over the mountainous
terrain of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a
dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning
area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.0N 106.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.9N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#208 Postby canebeard » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:51 pm

A perfect 9.

Looks cat 5 to me on this one enhanced wv image.

Image
Last edited by canebeard on Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#209 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#210 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:24 am

canebeard wrote:A perfect 9.

Looks cat 5 to me on this one enhanced wv image.

https://i.imgur.com/feQBt0D.jpg

No way, not without a clear eye
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#211 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 23, 2022 1:26 am

what's that big, stationary convection blob north of Roselyn? Probably if the core gets there,
may end up being destroyed. :D
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#212 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Oct 23, 2022 2:05 am

canebeard wrote:A perfect 9.

Looks cat 5 to me on this one enhanced wv image.

https://i.imgur.com/feQBt0D.jpg


Looks like a very impressive strong 3 - mid cat 4 to me. Very impressive cyclone, but struggling to clear the eye out, definitely don't get a cat 5 vibe based purely on that image.
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#213 Postby canebeard » Sun Oct 23, 2022 2:27 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
canebeard wrote:A perfect 9.

Looks cat 5 to me on this one enhanced wv image.

https://i.imgur.com/feQBt0D.jpg


Looks like a very impressive strong 3 - mid cat 4 to me. Very impressive cyclodIne, but struggling to clear the eye out, definitely don't get a cat 5 vibe based purely on that image.


Easy to say once the plane comes in with 958 pressure; a pressure in the middle of the typical cat 3 range.
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#214 Postby bob rulz » Sun Oct 23, 2022 2:51 am

canebeard wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
canebeard wrote:A perfect 9.

Looks cat 5 to me on this one enhanced wv image.

https://i.imgur.com/feQBt0D.jpg


Looks like a very impressive strong 3 - mid cat 4 to me. Very impressive cyclodIne, but struggling to clear the eye out, definitely don't get a cat 5 vibe based purely on that image.


Easy to say once the plane comes in with 958 pressure; a pressure in the middle of the typical cat 3 range.


It doesn't have a perfectly clear eye. It doesn't look cat 5 either.
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#215 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2022 3:48 am

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Roslyn is nearing west-central Mexico this morning, with a cloud
pattern that is becoming a little less organized with a more
obscured eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
provided valuable data this evening, despite severe turbulence,
showing that the hurricane hasn't lost much strength, with
flight-level and SFMR winds both supporting a current intensity of
110 kt. This intensity also matches a slightly higher central
pressure of about 958 mb, up just a few mb since the last
reconnaissance mission.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery show that Roslyn has
turned to the north-northeast and is moving faster, at about 14 kt.
The hurricane should continue to accelerate and make landfall in
the next several hours, likely in northern Nayarit, similar to the
track models. There isn't much time left for any increase in shear
to affect Roslyn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall
at about its current strength. Rapid weakening will occur over the
mountainous terrain of western Mexico later this morning, and Roslyn
should lose its circulation this evening. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico within the next several
hours, accompanied by damaging winds and a life-threatening storm
surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 21.1N 106.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#216 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:26 am

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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#217 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:35 am

Hurricane Roslyn Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...ROSLYN MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Roslyn has made landfall in
west-central mainland Mexico near Santa Cruz in northern Nayarit
around 520 AM MDT (1120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure
is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35 inches).

SUMMARY OF 520 AM MDT...1120 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 105.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#218 Postby Astromanía » Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:50 am

Strongest landfall in Mexico since Patricia 2015, who could have thought it would have been in the pacific in a la niña year
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#219 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:14 am

All MH Mexico landfalls, 14 since records started.

150 mph
*Patricia (2015)
145 mph
*Madeline (1976)
140 mph
*Twelve (1957)
*Fifteen (1959)
*Kenna (2002)
125 mph
*Olivia (1967)
*Tico (1983)
*Lane (2006)
*Odile (2014)
120 mph
*Roslyn (2022)
115 mph
*Olivia (1975)
*Liza (1976)
*Kiko (1989)
*Willa (2018)
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Re: EPAC: ROSLYN - Hurricane

#220 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:50 am

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