EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 211807
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 21/1730Z

C. 16.2N

D. 104.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN LLCC LOCATED UNDER A WELL DEFINED CDO WITH A >1.25 DEG
DIAMETER RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR BANDING. THE MET
AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Almost a hurricane.

EP, 19, 2022102118, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1048W, 60, 992, TS

[Blown Away]

The forecasted landfall area has seen very few direct hit hurricanes.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES




Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn continues to gradually become
better organized, with the center now embedded in a well-defined
central dense overcast. In addition, convective banding has
increased outside of the CDO, suggesting that the dry air earlier
seen in the circulation is mixing out. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged upward, so
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have
been adjusted downward based on data from a recent ASCAT overpass.

The latest imagery and the scatterometer data confirm that Roslyn
has been moving to the left of the previous forecast, and the
initial position for this advisory is a slight re-location. The
initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/6. Overall, there is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as Roslyn is still
expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge
that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next couple of
days. This will lead to the center passing near or a little west
of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall in mainland
Mexico. However, a combination of the current westward nudge and
an eastward shift in the track guidance results in the new forecast
track being to the west of the previous track through 24 h and a
little to the east of the previous track after that time. The new
forecast is also faster to bring the center to the coast of Mexico,
with landfall now shown between 36-48 h. The new forecast track
lies near the consensus models through 24 h, and thereafter lies a
little to the west of the consensus models.

Roslyn has a small inner core, and light vertical wind shear
conditions are expected during the next 24-30 h. Since the dry air
seems to be mixing out, this should allow Roslyn to steadily to
rapidly intensify during this time. The rapid intensification
indices in the SHIPS model suggest a good chance of 25-35 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and the new intensity forecast
calls for a possibly conservative 25 kt of strengthening during
this time. After that time, the latest large-scale models
forecast increasing shear, and there is uncertainty on how soon
land interaction will occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows a little more strengthening through 36 h, followed by rapid
weakening after the center makes landfall. The system should
dissipate completely over the mountains of Mexico between 60-72 h.

The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane
warnings and watches along the coast of Mexico and for the Islas
Marias. Additional watches and warnings could be required tonight
and Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.4N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.0N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[aspen]

The fact that Roslyn hasn’t bombed out yet despite having a compact core suggests it’s still sorting out some dry air and/or getting a solid eyewall. Assuming dry air doesn’t completely wreck the core, RI could begin sometime tonight. Hopefully recon doesn’t have any surprise issues and makes it to Roslyn tomorrow if it RI’s.

[Iceresistance]

Raw T# just shot up to a 4.

[Astromanía]

Ready to go

[InfernoFlameCat]

RI has appeared to have started. The CDO became remarkably symmetric in a matter of an hour. Will Roslyn follow Patricia’s footsteps?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[Astromanía]

RI has appeared to have started. The CDO became remarkably symmetric in a matter of an hour. Will Roslyn follow Patricia’s footsteps?

It doesn't have the perfect conditions as Patricia, but I bet it can be the stronger storm of the season

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= Dvorak up to 4.5.



https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... c/19E.html

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/ROSLYN.html



.

[cycloneye]

Also 00z Best Track up to hurricane.

EP, 19, 2022102200, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1053W, 75, 982, HU

[Yellow Evan]

RI has appeared to have started. The CDO became remarkably symmetric in a matter of an hour. Will Roslyn follow Patricia’s footsteps?

This doesn’t have the same sort of trough interaction.

[Astromanía]

This thing looks furious

[InfernoFlameCat]

RI has appeared to have started. The CDO became remarkably symmetric in a matter of an hour. Will Roslyn follow Patricia’s footsteps?

This doesn’t have the same sort of trough interaction.

I am certain it wont reach any where near the strength of Patricia, however I do think it will bear many similarities to Patricia.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's all systems go now. I think we could see a mid-strong Cat 4 out of this, not good news for Mexico. Hopefully everyone in the path is prepared

[zzzh]

Patricia, lol
This is not RI. More like EWRC

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/FsLQiHl.jpg
Patricia, lol
This is not RI. More like EWRC

There has to be an eye for an EWRC. This probably just core consolidation at this point