MED: 01M/Unnamed (JON) - Post-Tropical

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MED: 01M/Unnamed (JON) - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:01 pm

Based on some models, it has a slight chance for development of a hybrid, weak subtropical/tropical system over the eastern Mediterranean Sea, near Cyprus in the next days. The CMC is the strongest and most tropical-like, the other models now predict a weaker and more sheared system.

CMC:
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ARPEGE (French model):
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GFS:
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ICON (German model):
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Re: Chance for Medicane Development

#2 Postby Europa non è lontana » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:23 pm

Precursor system passing near Greece now.

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Many of the 18z models suggested the system would pass over Karpathos today, which should provide excellent opportunities for data collection if those models verify. Generally, those models kept the pressure around 1000mb (HIRLAM, as always, being a notable outlier). The 00z model runs should shed further light on the future of the system.
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Re: Chance for Medicane Development

#3 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:35 am

It is organising quite fast, and it seems the low level center is unter that large convective cluster. Stations in East Crete report pressure of 1003-1004 hPa which is a bit (2-3 hPa) lower than what the models predicted by this time. Also in Sitia already fell more than 500 mm rain today if this measurement is correct: https://penteli.meteo.gr/stations/sitia/
The models did not change much since yesterday, the ICON is a bit stronger, the CMC is weaker, while the GFS brings the cyclone more southward and keeps weaker, however the circulation is tighter than on the earlier runs.

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Re: Chance for Medicane Development

#4 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:01 am

The models are showing a depression forming and drifting in to the eastern Med before swinging north. The winds would be mostly in the 25-30 mph range however Crete and the Aegean sea could see 40 mph winds as it pulls winds down from the north and geography speeds it up due to compression

ECMWF Loop


ICON showing the compression from the mountains of Crete and islands of Aegean.
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Re: MED: Developing Low Pressure South of Greece

#5 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:49 am

In the afternoon a strong band of thunderstorms developed on the E-NE side of the cyclone and moved away to NE. Since then, the central convection has been weakened and the cyclone's center became visible both in satellite and Muğla's (Turkey) radar images just east of Crete. It seems that currently the cyclone also weakening slowly (as the models predicted), the pressure is rising over East Crete. In addition, now it is clear that the earlier mentioned precipitation data was an error, but an other station to west reported total rain of 139 mm from the morning which seems right and some other stations also measured 50-100 mm rain in that area.

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Re: MED: Developing Low Pressure South of Greece

#6 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Oct 15, 2022 1:28 pm

The latest model runs did not change much, except the Swiss model which bring the cyclone near Egypt and then back northward to Cyprus, and strengthen it to a moderate tropical storm (the earlier had similar path but with a weaker cyclone).

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Re: MED: Developing Low Pressure South of Greece

#7 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:40 pm

Hello all!....what meteorological agency covers systems in the Mediterranean?
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Re: MED: Developing Low Pressure South of Greece

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:11 pm

I'm curious, which model has performed best over the years when it comes to predicting the intensity of these medicanes?
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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#9 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:24 am

underthwx wrote:Hello all!....what meteorological agency covers systems in the Mediterranean?


There is no official agency which tracks these systems or makes warnings for them (but national meteorological services make general warnings to their territory, for example due to thunderstorms, severe wind, large amount of precipitation or coastal hazards / large waves, which can be followed here: https://www.meteoalarm.org/en/)
In the last few years, the British meteorological service (MetOffice) added the mediterranean systems to their yearly tropical cyclone track list, for example in 2020 you can find 02M, 03M and Ianos here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/tracks/nhem20/ , while in 2021 Apollo and Blas here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/tracks/nhem21/ In addition, Rolf (as 01M) in 2011 and Trixie (as 90M) in 2014 was oficially declared to a tropical system by the NOAA https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/tropical/2011/bulletins/archive.html, however, they stopped the tracking of the Mediterranean systems thereafter.
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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#10 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:33 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:I'm curious, which model has performed best over the years when it comes to predicting the intensity of these medicanes?


It changes from cyclone to cyclone, but in general maybe the ICON, the GFS and the ECMWF are the best, but the latter two sometimes underestimate (or even not develop) the cyclones in their early runs. In contrast, the Arpege and the Hirlam (the Finnish model) often overestimate the intensity, the latter significantly, and the CMC also tend toward overestimation, but not every time.
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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#11 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:09 am

underthwx wrote:Hello all!....what meteorological agency covers systems in the Mediterranean?


Also, for reference you can find a page with links to all the Medicane threads in the Storm2k archives which I put together a couple of years ago...

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4&t=121657
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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#12 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:48 am

Although there wasn't any significant convection near the center in the night hours, it seems that the cyclone didn't weaken much, if any. Ships near the center reported pressure of 1004-1006 hPa early morning (~6 UTC) and two ships measured gale force wind west of it. I don't know how accurate is the first ship with those sustained winds of ~95 km/h (50 kt), but based on the other ship, winds of at least ~75 km/h (40 kt) are likely occuring there, which also a bit stronger than the models predicted.
https://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/obs_boueebateau.php?code2=EUMDE17&jour2=16&mois2=9&annee2=2022
https://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/obs_boueebateau.php?code2=9XLHEBZ&jour2=16&mois2=9&annee2=2022

As for now, the convection has started to redevelop on the NE side of the circulation.

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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#13 Postby alan1961 » Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:04 am

It certainly clobbered Crete on friday/saturday :eek:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-63272388
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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#14 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:15 am

In the night hours a larger area of quite deep convection developed NE of the center, but is quickly got sheared away. In the morning, a new area of expanding convection redeveloped near the center, but it is a bit shallower than earlier.
I think the cyclone is maybe a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm now, and it has some opportunity to strengthen today before the shear will increase further on tomorrow.

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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#15 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:33 pm

The cyclone finally became much more organized in the afternoon, the low level center moved under the convection and spiral bands formed which were visible on the radar images too. An ASCAT pass around 08 UTC measured maximum winds between 25-30 kt, and since then the low likely strengtehened a bit, into a weak tropical storm.

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Re: MED: Subtropical Cyclone South of Greece

#16 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:06 am

The cyclone has been gradually weakening since yesterday evening, now is only a cute swirl with scattered showers north of the center. An ASCAT pass measureded maximum winds around 30 kt yesterday evening, after the convection started to weaken, while a SMAP pass measured 30-33 kt winds today morning. The peak intensity likely was 35-40 kt yesterday, in the late afternoon.

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Mediterranean: 01M tropical depression/storm

#17 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:11 am

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2022



TROPICAL STORM 01M ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 30.5E



ATCF IDENTIFIER : ME012022



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.10.2022 33.6N 30.5E WEAK

12UTC 19.10.2022 34.1N 31.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: MED: 01M/Unnamed - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:47 am

It is still fighting. :)

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Re: MED: 01M/Unnamed - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:29 am

From yesterday Met Office Tropical Cyclone Guidance designates this as 01M;
I think it should be present in active storm / invest:

TROPICAL STORM 01M ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 30.5E


ATCF IDENTIFIER : ME012022


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.10.2022 33.6N 30.5E WEAK

12UTC 19.10.2022 34.1N 31.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: MED: 01M/Unnamed - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Oct 19, 2022 2:04 pm

On 17th afternoon the GPM's DPR nicely captured the storm, when it was about its peak intensity. I made some images from the data, the curved bands were very well detectable around the center where almost an eye-like feature appeared.

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