WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#21 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:59 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Latest two runs of the GFS has this becoming an intense typhoon again, but recurve.

What's up Hayabusa. Is this recurve keeping the cyclone away from all land?

Yes but I'm skeptical such a recurve track happening in a La Nina October.


Yeah it also involves a recurve straight into a strong subtropical ridge.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#22 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:04 pm

There's currently a col north of 93W. Question is will 93W gain enough latitude to be picked up by a passing trough
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#23 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:11 pm

mrbagyo wrote:There's currently a col north of 93W. Question is will 93W gain enough latitude to be picked up by a passing trough
https://imgur.com/vbrpV0h.gif


Another factor is how quick the STR will rebuild after the trough has passed...based on the model runs the ridge is already rebuilding/strengthening before 93W tracks more northward, and it appears that there's a second trough that will erode the STR again, causing 93W to recurve completely.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#24 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:02 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:There's currently a col north of 93W. Question is will 93W gain enough latitude to be picked up by a passing trough
https://imgur.com/vbrpV0h.gif


Another factor is how quick the STR will rebuild after the trough has passed...based on the model runs the ridge is already rebuilding/strengthening before 93W tracks more northward, and it appears that there's a second trough that will erode the STR again, causing 93W to recurve completely.

Also, the longer that 93W remains disorganized and weak, the more likely it will drift west closer to PH (like ECMWF shows). The GFS deepens 93W fast enough (thus, steering shifts to the upper levels) that the trough somehow influences it to move poleward in the near term.
In my opinion, GFS develops 93W too fast and it's unlikely to recurve out to sea so early. The system will likely threaten PH.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 24, 2022 12:39 am

Scatterometer pass earlier this morning
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:13 am

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N
134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH DISPLACED AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 240052Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VWS (5-10KTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WEAK EASTERN
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#27 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 24, 2022 5:52 am

Notable westward shift in the 06Z GFS run — it has 93W reaching 130E longitude by TAU 120hr. Previous runs kept the system well east of 130E. Let's see if GFS gradually adjusts more west from here on out. I should also note though that the ECMWF ensembles have slightly shifted east at 00Z.

Trend gif from the last 4 GFS runs:
Image

ECMWF ensembles 10-23 12Z and 10-24 00Z:
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#28 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:21 am

06Z
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#29 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:20 am

93W INVEST 221024 1200 11.9N 134.4E WPAC 15 1005
Image

hy2 pass (about 6 hrs old)
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latest ASCAT
Image

JMA is now expecting a TD out of this within the next 48 hrs
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#30 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:51 pm

12Z, maybe I would believe this kind of track if we're still in April like what happened with Surigae
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#31 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:33 pm

Now I know why the GFS has been more east with 93W compared to other models. Apparently, the one that it shows developing is a separate vortex just to the east of 93W, which is now showing up on the CIMSS 850mb vorticity analysis product as well. Looking at the satellite image, convection is indeed building up near 136E. This will probably get tagged as another invest, or if not, JTWC might relocate 93W eastward. GFS has the western vortex (which is currently 93W) drifting west and dissipating within the next 48hrs.

CIMSS 850mb vortivity as of 10-24 21Z:
Image

GFS 10-24 18Z:
Image
Image

The ECMWF and CMC models have also picked up on this secondary vortex, which appears to be the reason why they have trended more eastward (notice how the 12Z ECMWF ensembles initialized the system more to the east compared to 00Z). It's a waiting game for now on which system becomes more dominant, but after seeing this new data, a non-landfall scenario for the Philippines seems to be becoming more likely.

ECMWF ensembles 10-24 00Z and 12Z:
Image
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:36 pm

Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 250100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250100Z-250600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE CIRCULATION WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
HIDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE CIRCULATION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:23 pm

Image
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Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#34 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:23 pm

18Z EPS
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#35 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:37 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#36 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:16 am

18z GFS wants a Kuril Islands bomb cyclone out of this.

reminds me a bit of typhoon Lan 2017
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#37 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 12:57 am

00Z GFS with another significant westward shift although it still develops the eastern vortex near 135E.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#38 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:27 am

HWRF also favors the eastern vortex. It shows quick development after it merges with the vortex that's currently referred to as 93W (JTWC 06Z position: 11.8N 128.9E).

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:58 am

00Z
Image
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#40 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:35 am

relocated further east


93W INVEST 221025 1200 11.2N 135.3E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 221025 0600 11.8N 128.9E WPAC 15 1005
93W INVEST 221025 0000 11.6N 130.2E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 221024 1800 11.0N 132.2E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 221024 1200 10.5N 133.9E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 221024 0600 9.8N 135.2E WPAC 15 1005
93W INVEST 221024 0000 9.3N 136.1E WPAC 15 1004
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