WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#41 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:17 am

06Z EPS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:57 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#43 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:59 am

The "original" 93W has gone poof while convection is really blossoming over where JTWC relocated it. Looks like two separate entities to me.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#44 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:40 pm

12z is of both GFS and Euro has trended a little bit west again
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#45 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:44 pm

12Z Euro back to landfall again
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EPS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#46 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:22 pm

18Z EPS
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#47 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:24 pm

TC warning
WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎260000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎12.6N ‎134.9E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎1004HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎12.2N ‎131.1E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎1000HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎13.3N ‎129.0E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎15.1N ‎125.9E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
96HF ‎ ‎300000UTC ‎16.2N ‎123.9E ‎280NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
120HF ‎310000UTC ‎18.0N ‎122.5E ‎390NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT ‎=

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#48 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:36 pm

Hayabusa wrote:18Z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/ojnFeOL.gif


Zeb, is that you?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#49 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:43 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#50 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:19 pm

TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 260200

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC WITH A
PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN SECTION. 93W STILL
HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN
ALIGNMENT THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL
CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#51 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:25 pm

93W is still broad and all that convection is actually south of the LLCC. As JTWC mentioned, "it still has some work to do."

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#52 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:34 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#53 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:25 am

Latest 00Z landfall
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#54 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 26, 2022 2:43 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#55 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 26, 2022 3:19 am

Much fewer strong ensemble members on this run too.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#56 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:38 am

EPS 06Z, more south landfall
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#57 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 26, 2022 3:45 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#58 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:06 pm

Latest GFS 18Z now makes landfall, yep it just seemed very unlikely for a classic recurve in late October La Nina.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#59 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:33 pm

12z Euro is much weaker and more south
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:19 pm

JTWC upgrades.

26W INVEST 221027 0000 12.6N 130.7E WPAC 25 1000
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