WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 26W - Tropical Depression

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:59 pm

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:13 pm

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎270000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2222 ‎NALGAE ‎(2222) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎12.2N ‎132.0E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎240NM ‎SOUTH ‎150NM ‎NORTH
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎13.0N ‎128.7E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
48HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎14.3N ‎124.5E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
72HF ‎ ‎300000UTC ‎15.7N ‎120.9E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
96HF ‎ ‎310000UTC ‎16.6N ‎119.2E ‎320NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
120HF ‎010000UTC ‎18.8N ‎118.7E ‎500NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT ‎=

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:21 pm

EPS 18Z
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 26, 2022 8:40 pm

First warning
Image
WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.6N 130.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 386 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA THAT IS DISORGANIZED BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE AND FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS EXTENDING OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NE-SW. THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERIES EXPOSE A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) AND ALSO SHOWS A STEADY STREAM OF STRATOCUMULUS LINES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD NORTHEAST SURGE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND ELONGATED WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS MORE THAN 60NM TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LARGE AND RAGGED BUT DEFINED
LLC FEATURE IN THE 2213Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED 6-HR WEAK SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
AURORA PROVINCE, PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 60, THEN EXIT INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 84. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
MORE NORTHWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY HIGHER. AFTER
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN WILL REDUCE IT TO
55KTS, THE RE-INTENSIFY TO 60KTS AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM WATERS
OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTO LUZON STRAIT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS WIDELY AND UNEVENLY SPREAD OUT
TO 390 NM BY TAU 120 WITH NVGM ON THE LEFT- AND AEMN ON THE
RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS, PLUS THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM, LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 26, 2022 11:51 pm

18z

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:16 am

It's hard to spot the real center, basing on IR sat loop alone you would think that the CoC is near 10N.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 27, 2022 4:41 am

06Z JTWC forecast track has been nudged more to the south and has landfall over Catanduanes Island by 18Z Friday / 2am Saturday PhT (latest ECMWF run is even a few hours earlier than that). Passage over the Bicol Peninsula is also a possibility now, and such track would give Nalgae lesser time to intensify. Uncertainty is still large though, especially with a poorly-organized, monsoonal-type storm like Nalgae where a prominent center is hard to locate, and where models and agencies analyze the center can affect the overall forecast. Interestingly, JTWC placed the 06Z center position significantly more north and west than the rest of the agencies, yet it has the most southward forecast track. Let's see if other agencies will follow suit on a track closer to Bicol.

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:17 am

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:05 am

HWRF 06Z now also landfall, first on Catanduanes
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:43 am

microwave signature still looks terrible

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:05 am

Strong burst of deep convection near the center of TS Nalgae ( and rapidly expanding). This is most likely the beginning of the CDO building process.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:00 pm

Our house was damaged during the previous super typhoon and the repairs and clean up are still ongoing. I'm hoping that this will not be as damaging as the previous one.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:25 pm

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:11 pm

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 27, 2022 9:21 pm

49 knots converted from smap fix more than 4 hours ago
WP, ‎26, ‎202210272145, ‎ ‎30, ‎SMAP, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎IR, ‎ ‎, ‎1210N, ‎12840E, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎46, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎34, ‎ ‎NEQ, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎76, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎W, ‎ ‎NASA, ‎RSS, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎max. ‎wind ‎is ‎10 ‎minute ‎sustained ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎
WP, ‎26, ‎202210272145, ‎ ‎30, ‎SMAP, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎IR, ‎ ‎, ‎1210N, ‎12840E, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎46, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎50, ‎ ‎NEQ, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎W, ‎ ‎NASA, ‎RSS, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎max. ‎wind ‎is ‎10 ‎minute ‎sustained ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎
WP, ‎26, ‎202210272145, ‎ ‎30, ‎SMAP, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎IR, ‎ ‎, ‎1210N, ‎12840E, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎46, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎64, ‎ ‎NEQ, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎ ‎0, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎W, ‎ ‎NASA, ‎RSS, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎ ‎, ‎1, ‎ ‎max. ‎wind ‎is ‎10 ‎minute ‎sustained
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:24 pm

I think its large nature is stopping Nalgae from undergoing RI. Apart from very warm SST, Noru in September ERI'd because of its very compact size.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:22 pm

JTWC has lowered their intensity forecast. They are no longer anticipating a typhoon landfall.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:40 pm

Nalgae's radius of gale force wind is now 300 nmi (or a diameter of 600 nmi / 1100 km) per JMA.

Legazpi and Tanay sounding both showing tropopause capable of colder than -85°C at 90mb heights. Precipitable water are well over 2 inches

This would be a huge rain event.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:22 am

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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:57 am

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