ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:53 pm

AL, 94, 2022102118, , BEST, 0, 293N, 411W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al792022 to al942022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942022.dat

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3005528
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:59 pm

Where did you come from, that is very unexpected! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Where did you come from, that is very unexpected! :lol:


It actually has been on most models for at least several days of runs. Most runs have this low or its remnant moisture either going into the NE US or SE Canada mid next week or else recurving sharply and staying offshore those areas. It hadn't been discussed because it hasn't been shown to be a tropical or a strong system on the models.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby Landy » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:14 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:17 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Where did you come from, that is very unexpected! :lol:


Wow, that is exactly what I said (up until the comma). :lol:

(Yes, I was talking to our little lemon, so sue me. :oops: )
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Where did you come from, that is very unexpected! :lol:


And maybe is a first in S2K about only one hour as a thread for an area that is made after a TWO is out, is then locked. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2022 6:55 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small, non-tropical area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
east of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity. Although the
environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development during the next few days, the low could
still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by early
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25
mph across the subtropical Atlantic. By the middle of next week,
further development appears unlikely as the system is forecast to
move over cooler waters and encounter stronger upper-level winds.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:00 pm

AL, 94, 2022102200, , BEST, 0, 286N, 428W, 35, 1011, LO


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:44 pm

Some convection with it.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 21, 2022 11:49 pm

I believe this is probably fairly close to becoming a tropical cyclone....Another 12 hours of sustainable convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2022 6:45 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small, non-tropical area of low pressure located well east of
Bermuda is producing limited shower activity. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development during the
next few days, the low could still acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics by early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the subtropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of next week, further development
appears unlikely while the system moves northwestward over cooler
waters of the northwestern Atlantic and encounters stronger
upper-level winds. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:45 am

Moving fast with little convection.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 22, 2022 4:03 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:12 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:47 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly
conducive, and any subtropical or tropical development of the system
should be slow to occur while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the subtropical Atlantic. By the middle part
of this week, further development appears unlikely as the system
turns northward over the cooler waters of the northwestern Atlantic
and encounters stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:50 am

94L looks reinvigorated this morning, and should pass fairly close to Bermuda during the next 24 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:52 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:37 am

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1025 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in
the Subtropical Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite imagery and Bermuda radar data indicate that the
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 150 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
become more concentrated during the past few hours and a small
surface circulation appears to be forming. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, a tropical or subtropical
cyclone could develop while it passes near Bermuda later today and
tonight. Afterward, the system is forecast to turn northward toward
cooler waters and less favorable upper-level winds over the
northwestern Atlantic, and further development is not anticipated by
that time. Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda through tonight.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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