ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:27 am

AL, 95, 2022102812, , BEST, 0, 120N, 660W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038, SPAWNINVEST, al722022 to al952022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952022.dat

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was up for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123154
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:33 am

Looks good for development as the trough north of Hispaniola is forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:40 am

Quite a few short-duration towers in the vicinity of 13.5N 66.5W.
Since this is mostly shear driven, I expect this to continue off and on thru Saturday.
Shear will then relax and a spin up is possible then.
There is a possibility the developing surface low may take a track thru the N Carib as opposed to what the models have been advertising this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:41 am

Looks like this will be sitting under a strong anti-cyclone for the duration this is in the mid-Carib.
I am not seeing any strong steering influence by the time this gets to 75W.
Probably the biggest factor would be this deepening due to pulling high TPW air out of the EPAC across Panama.
If that is the case, then the track would be more to the NW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:51 am

Looks like we may be watching this all week long.
The next major steering influencer is a possible deep negative-tilt trough across the plains in a week's time.
Could get dicey since the west Carib will be an ARWB then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:18 am

Should become Lisa I would think. Intensity is up in the air at this point
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:38 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:39 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:55 am

Recon flies tomorrow.
The way this has been firing this morning, they should close it off then IMHO



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT FRI 28 OCTOBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z OCTOBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 29/1800Z A. 30/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST B. NOAA3 0215A CYCLONE
C. 29/1630Z C. 30/0900Z
D. 13.8N 68.5W D. 15.0N 70.0W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z E. 30/1000Z TO 30/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:52 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:31 pm

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward
for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:59 pm

AL, 95, 2022102818, , BEST, 0, 123N, 666W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:00 pm

Just when models were becoming less optimistic with it too. Will be an error for them if this does develop.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:36 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Just when models were becoming less optimistic with it too. Will be an error for them if this does develop.


Won't be the first time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:46 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:50 pm

Already seeing some gradual erosion of the UL Trof as indicated by some minor popups starting to fire over DR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby Nuno » Fri Oct 28, 2022 3:03 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Just when models were becoming less optimistic with it too. Will be an error for them if this does develop.


Usually the signal for when its about to take off :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:09 pm

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward
for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:15 pm

I think that development chances may decrease after 48 hrs. System will be moving into some very dry air west of 75W. GFS is finally catching on. May not be much left of it by the time it reaches Central America. Euro sees the same thing. Desert conditions central and western Caribbean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022102818&fh=96
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