ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#141 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:59 pm

AF303 descending
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#142 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:22 pm

Anti-cyclone displaced SE of the LL vorts.
PV streamer starting to form over Lisa.
Could slow done intensification
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#143 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:49 pm

Recon just found the LLC at 16.7N/83.8W. The SE quad has much higher winds (up to 45 kt) than last flight, with peak winds supporting an intensity of 55 kt. The pressure gradient is super compact with a pressure down to 996mb extrapolated. If no shear or dry air interrupts Lisa, it could undergo a formidable phase of RI with this structure.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#144 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:53 pm

StormSkeptic wrote:To me, the most interesting item from the latest vortex message is the 5° difference in temperature in the core and the tightening of the wind field.

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)

This indicates the core is warming and will likely lead to the pressure continuing to drop and strengthening.


The sunset loop shows strong thunderstorms with a CDO starting to ramp up.
GFS waited till the 18Z model run to forecast a low end hurricane.

Don't know if recon will find a very deep pressure drop yet, but 24 hours from now there might be a 25% chance of cat 2 core winds over a small area of coastline at landfall.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#145 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:12 pm

Holy Pinhole eye! :double:

A. 01/22:39:00Z
B. 16.72 deg N 083.81 deg W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 997 mb
E. 130 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 44 kt
I. 119 deg 25 nm 22:28:30Z
J. 183 deg 44 kt
K. 098 deg 8 nm 22:33:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 046 deg 6 nm 22:41:00Z
N. 136 deg 59 kt
O. 046 deg 8 nm 22:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 21 C / 1520 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1015A LISA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 046 / 8 NM 22:41:30Z
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#146 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:15 pm

Yep, 997mb, as expected. Winds may be up to 55 kts now, though FL winds are only about 60 kts NE of the center.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#147 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:21 pm

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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#148 Postby Teban54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Holy Pinhole eye! :double:

A. 01/22:39:00Z
B. 16.72 deg N 083.81 deg W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 997 mb
E. 130 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 44 kt
I. 119 deg 25 nm 22:28:30Z
J. 183 deg 44 kt
K. 098 deg 8 nm 22:33:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 046 deg 6 nm 22:41:00Z
N. 136 deg 59 kt
O. 046 deg 8 nm 22:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 21 C / 1520 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1015A LISA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 046 / 8 NM 22:41:30Z

Now THAT'S what you call a pinhole...
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#149 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:36 pm

The AF plane is leaving after just a single center pass. Meanwhile, the NOAA plane is about to make a center pass but its barometer isn’t working.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#150 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:52 pm

997/23 eye drop from NOAA3 supports 995 mbar. It did not find winds as high as the AF pass.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#151 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:11 pm

VDM reported a pinhole
Closed eye, 6nm diameter
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#152 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:17 pm

GCANE wrote:VDM reported a pinhole
Closed eye, 6nm diameter

Newest VDM reported a large 15nm eye that was open to the SE. The differing reports are probably due to the fact that Lisa is still in the process of wrapping its bands into one single eyewall; I remember something similar with Ian, within 12 hours of its Cuba landfall.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#153 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:44 pm

NOAA3 missed the eye. The closest drop they got recorded 997/57, meaning the actual pressure has possibly dropped into the lower 990s. FL and SFMR winds in the NW quadrant are both between 55-60 kt.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#154 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:02 pm

AL, 15, 2022110200, , BEST, 0, 167N, 841W, 60, 993, TS


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal152022.dat
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#155 Postby chaser1 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:28 pm

Belize in November? What a fantastic destination for a honeymoon, someone said :lol:
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#156 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:33 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#157 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:35 pm

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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#158 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:34 pm

There is a growing possibility Lisa may make landfall as a Cat 2. I don't think Belize has seen many storms that strong in November.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#159 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:57 pm

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1587646568068485121



A category 3 or even C4 'cane is starting to look a real possibility now. :double:
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#160 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:19 pm

Lisa is moving at a pretty quick pace so I don't think it will have enough time to become a major. Probably be another case of "if it had 12 more hours over water"...
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