ATL: LISA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
100 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA VERY NEAR BELIZE BARRIER REEF...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

The hurricane is about to make landfall in Belize. Satellite and
radar images show the small core of Lisa moving across Belize's
barrier islands and the eye is getting very close to Belize City.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lisa during
the past few hours and a combination of the flight-level winds and
improvement in structure in radar images support increasing the
initial intensity to 75 kt. Hurricane-force winds only extend about
15 n mi from the center, and those conditions will likely move
across Belize City during the next couple of hours.

Lisa is expected to track westward across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected when Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Over
the weekend, Lisa is expected to stall before drifting southward
in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous
track forecast, and this prediction lies close to the various
consensus models.

After the core of Lisa moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast
due to land interaction. Lisa is expected to become a tropical
storm this evening and weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.
Although the storm is forecast to emerge back over water in the Bay
of Campeche, strong southerly shear should prevent strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lisa dissipating by the end of
the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible near Belize City during
the next few hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of Guatemala, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through this evening.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:33 pm

Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made
landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun
River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT
(2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph
(140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990
mb (29.24 inches).

SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:08 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO BELIZE,
NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 89.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite and radar imagery showed Lisa made landfall earlier
this evening around 2120 UTC southwest of Belize City. The maximum
sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be
75 kt and 990 mb, respectively. The storm has moved farther inland
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to
continue overnight and into tomorrow due to land interaction and
Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression on Thursday. Even
though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche
in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will
likely prevent intensification. The NHC intensity forecast remains
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Lisa
dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

Lisa is moving westward at an estimated 10 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so until the storm
crosses over the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is then forecast to
turn to the northwest and slow in forward speed, eventually
stalling between 60 to 72 hours until the low-level flow turns
Lisa southward. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions
of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico
during the next day or so.

2. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore
flow along the coast of Belize overnight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over
Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.6N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1200Z 17.7N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 19.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:05 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 90.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has continued to move farther inland during the last several
hours, with the center now located over extreme northern Guatemala.
The organization of the storm has continued to decrease in both
satellite imagery and radar data, and the initial intensity is
reduced to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt.

The initial motion is 280/9 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as
Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Starting near 48 h, the
cyclone should slow its forward motion and make a looping turn
toward the southeast, with this motion continuing until the cyclone
dissipates. The track guidance after 24 h has shifted a bit
westward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track for
those time periods is nudged westward as well.

Lisa should continue to weaken while the center stays inland, and
it is forecast to be below tropical-storm strength in about 12 h.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air entrainment are likely to
prevent re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche, and these
conditions should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low
over water by 72 h. The global models are in good agreement that
the system will dissipate by 96 h, and the new intensity forecast
follows that scenario.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala, and portions of southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over
northern Guatemala and the southern portions of the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours, though all
coastal warnings have been discontinued.

3. Elevated Water levels along the coast of Belize should
diminish today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 19.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 7:28 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
700 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 90.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 9:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has been inland for about 18 hours, and there are no
observations of tropical-storm-force winds. Also, using a standard
rate of decay over land shows the cyclone weakening below tropical
storm intensity by now. Therefore the system is being downgraded
to a tropical depression on this advisory.

Satellite fixes and observations from the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar
indicate that the cyclone continues moving mainly westward and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. Over the next couple of
days, Lisa should gradually turn to the northwest and north while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high. In
2-3 days, the increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to meander
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within a weak low-level flow.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
follows the multi-model consensus guidance, TVCA.

Lisa is forecast to move over the waters of the Bay of Campeche in
24 hours. Global models show strong southerly to
south-southwesterly upper-level winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. The associated strong vertical
shear should prevent re-intensification. Global model simulations
also show Lisa's mid- to upper-level vorticity maximum being sheared
north-northeastward into the northern Gulf while the low-level
circulation remains over the Bay of Campeche. The official
intensity forecast, like the previous ones, shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of southeast
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA CONTINUES MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 92.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has been diminishing on
infrared satellite images, although the system still has nearly a
closed ring of precipitation on the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar.
Assuming that at least some weakening has occurred during the day,
the current intensity estimate is set at 25 kt, which is above the
few available surface observations.

Center position estimates from visible satellite images and radar
indicate that Lisa continues to move generally westward, or at
about 280/10 kt. During the next day or two, the cyclone should
gradually turn toward the northwest and north while moving along
the southwestern and western side of a mid-level high pressure area.
Around 48 hours and beyond, the shallow vortex is likely to move
slowly and erratically with the near-surface environmental flow.
The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Strong south-southwesterly upper-level winds are expected to
prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
Therefore, even though the center of Lisa is forecast to soon move
over the waters of the Bay of Campeche, high vertical shear is
likely to prevent re-strengthening of the system. The consensus of
the numerical intensity guidance calls for weakening through 48
hours, and the official forecast shows Lisa becoming a remnant low
in a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.1N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.7N 95.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:04 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 93.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations indicate the
center of Lisa is still inland over southeastern Mexico. The
precipitation associated with the depression has maintained some
organization in radar data from Sabancuy tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms wrap most of the way around the center, with some
fragmented outer bands noted around the northern portion of the
circulation offshore of southeastern Mexico. A couple of Pemex buoys
in this region have reported sustained winds of 20 kt or so during
the past few hours, and the initial intensity of the depression is
held at 25 kt for this advisory.

Lisa is still moving westward at 275/10 kt. A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected on Friday and Friday night as
the cyclone moves around a low- to mid-level ridge. Then, the
models indicate the shallow vortex will likely stall and meander
within the weak low-level environmental flow over the southwestern
Gulf. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the multi-model consensus aids.

Although Lisa is forecast to emerge over the warm waters of the Bay
of Campeche early Friday, strong south-southwesterly upper-level
winds and drier mid-level air should inhibit any significant
development. In fact, model-simulated satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF show all convection being stripped away from the center
during the next 24-48 h by 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Therefore,
the official intensity forecast keeps Lisa a depression, and it
calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low in 48 h and dissipate
on Sunday night.


Key Messages:

1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.1N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1200Z 18.7N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.3N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 19.8N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 04, 2022 3:40 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...CENTER OF LISA EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Radar and satellite data indicates that the center of Lisa is now
over water in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that
the convection has increased over the past several hours,
particularly in a band just northeast of the center. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt based mainly on data from a Mexican buoy
to the northeast of the center.

The initial motion is now 290/9. A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today as the cyclone moves around a low- to
mid-level ridge. After that, the models indicate the shallow
vortex will likely stall and meander southeastward within the weak
low-level environmental flow over the southwestern Gulf. There is
little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast
since the last advisory.

Although the center of Lisa is now over water, the cyclone is
experiencing 20-25 kt of southerly shear. The upper-level winds
should become even less favorable during the next 48-72 h, and the
cyclone is also expected to entrain some dry air. Due to the
current strong convection, some strengthening is forecast during
the next 12 h, and it is not impossible for Lisa to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time. Thereafter, the
upper-level winds and dry air should cause the system to weaken,
with Lisa forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area
by 48 h and dissipate completely by 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.3N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 19.6N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:44 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES




Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa has been over water for most of this morning, and deep
convection associated with the tropical depression has increased.
However, strong upper-level southerly winds appear to be limiting
the majority of that convection to the north of the cyclone's
surface center. Data from a couple of Mexican buoys located east of
Lisa's center have not shown any signs of increasing winds, however
we don't have any recent observations closer to the center of the
depression. The 30 kt initial intensity was therefore based on a
blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lisa this afternoon and
should provide more information about its winds and structure.

It's possible that Lisa could briefly re-attain tropical storm
status this afternoon before an expected increase in the
aforementioned wind shear and intrusions of dry air bring an end to
the window for strengthening tonight. Lisa is forecast to lose its
organized deep convection within about 36 h and dissipate about a
day later, based on the latest dynamical hurricane and global model
guidance.

The depression has turned toward the northwest and is still
forecast to slow down and begin to meander over the western Bay of
Campeche by tomorrow. Exactly how far north Lisa gets will likely
be determined in part by how long it remains a tropical cyclone
since most of the northward steering flow is coming from the
upper-levels, which won't affect Lisa's motion when it becomes a
shallow remnant low. The NHC track forecast has been nudged
northward at most forecast times, and lies between the previous
official forecast and the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 20.6N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 20.3N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 04, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Deep convection that was associated with Lisa this morning has
quickly weakened and become displaced well to the northeast of the
center due strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier
satellite wind data and more recent observations from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the overnight and
morning convective burst did not result in any increase in strength.
Data from the aircraft and the scatterometer instrument suggest
that Lisa's maximum winds are around 25 kt. Since the shear is
forecast to increase further and the mid-level humidity near the
cyclone is expected to decrease, additional weakening is
anticipated. It is possible that some additional bursts of
convection will occur in association with Lisa tonight and early
Saturday, but those bursts are not likely to result in a return of
organized deep convection. Therefore, Lisa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, but this could occur as
early as tonight if convection does not re-develop soon.

Lisa was located a bit farther north and west of the previous
estimates, which has resulted in an adjustment to the initial
position and short-term forecast. Now that Lisa has become
vertically shallow it is expected to move slowly northward
tonight. It should then stall and begin a southward drift over
the weekend before dissipation occurs. The new track forecast is
west of the previous track and is a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.3N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 20.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 19.9N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES




Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa continues to barely hang on to tropical cyclone status this
evening. The broadening low-level circulation has a single burst of
deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the center by
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The subjective
satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 25 kt.
Environmental conditions are not expected to improve in the next
couple of days. The global models forecast the mid-level environment
to become drier and the vertical wind shear to strengthen further.
Simulated satellite imagery shows the little remaining convection
should collapse in less than 12 hours. Therefore, the official
intensity forecast now predicts Lisa will become a post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday morning.

The depression appears to be moving slowly to the north at 3 kt.
This decrease in forward motion seems to indicate that Lisa will not
make as much northward progress before the low-level circulation
stalls and drifts southward in about 12 hours or so. The new track
forecast now shows a turn to the south occurring sooner, similar to
the corrected consensus aid guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 20.1N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 19.9N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:36 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Lisa continues to produce a couple of clusters of convection to the
north and east of the exposed low-level center. This is enough to
keep the system classifiable using the Dvorak Technique, and thus
the cyclone is maintained as a 25-kt depression on this advisory.
It is expected that later today strong vertical wind shear and dry
air entrainment will stop the convection, and thus Lisa is expected
to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 h or less. The remnants are
forecast to dissipate completely after 36 h.

The initial motion is 335/3. A slow northward drift is expected
today, followed by a slow southward drift until the system
dissipates. The new track forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 19.8N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:46 am

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lisa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

...LISA DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 95.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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