ATL: LISA - Advisories

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ATL: LISA - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:49 pm

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...ADVISORIES INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 73.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island of Jamaica.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grand Cayman Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 73.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue over the next several days with a gradual turn to the
west by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could be
near hurricane intensity by Tuesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning late Monday and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern
Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches
with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

This morning we were fortunate to have concurrent NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions, which provided a wealth of
flight-level, Tail Doppler Radar, and dropsonde data over the system
in the central Caribbean Sea. The data indicated that a
well-defined, while somewhat broad, circulation had formed with a
minimum pressure of 1005 mb. A combination of SFMR winds and surface
dropsonde data also suggested that the system had 35-kt winds in its
northern semicircle. With that said, the satellite presentation of
the system currently lacks sufficient convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone. However, given the well-defined
center and tropical-storm-force winds, there is significant risk for
tropical storm conditions in the near future in portions of Jamaica
and Grand Cayman Island. With the expectation that this system will
likely become a tropical storm soon, advisories have been initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen.

The estimated motion of the disturbance is off to the west-northwest
at 290/9 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the
next day or so, as an expansive mid-level ridge is currently
centered north of the system and expected to move westward with
the cyclone. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge may
nose further westward as a deep-layer trough becomes established
well to the the northeast, which could result in a south of due
west motion when the system approaches the coast of
Belize. Landfall is expected between the 72- and 96-hour forecast
points. The initial NHC track forecast is roughly a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, which is also quite close to
the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids.

Based on the current structure, it may take a bit longer for the
convection to become sufficently organized to allow the formation of
a tropical cyclone, but this is forecast to occur at some point
tonight, likely during the typical diurnal maximum. After deep
convection become better established, environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for further intensification, especially in
the 24-48 hour period when the vertical wind shear is expected to be
lowest (5-15 kt) as the system traverses 29-30 C sea-surface
temperatures. Mid-level relative humidity is quite low (55-60
percent), but given the relatively low shear, this may act to keep
the system's structure small with a constricted radius of maximum
winds. The initial intensity forecast after 24 hours closely follows
the latest HCCA and ICON intensity guidance, making the system a
Category 1 hurricane in 60-72 hours. The system should weaken
quickly over land and is forecast to dissipate before day 5.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued
a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica, and the government in the
Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman
Island.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:33 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 74.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 74.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

Satellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate there has been little change in the structure of the
disturbance this evening. Satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center is apparent in satellite imagery between two areas
of disorganized convection to the northwest of a loosely-curved
convective band. The aircraft data shows that the circulation at
460 mb is located to the southeast of the surface center and is not
well defined at that level. Dropsondes to the northeast of the
center showed surface winds of 30 kt, and drops near the center
suggest the central pressure is near 1005 mb. Based on these data,
the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The estimated initial motion is a little to the left of the
previous advisory, 280/10 kt. A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so
due to the presence of a westward moving mid-level ridge north of
the center. After that time, the ridge should build a little
faster toward the west and southwest, resulting in a south of west
motion as the system approaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just after 72 h. The forecast guidance has shifted
southward through 60 h, and the new forecast track is nudged in
that direction. However, the new track lies to the north of the
various consensus models. It should be noted that the the forecast
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the
circulation center becomes better defined.

A combination of the current disorganized structure, moderate
west-northwesterly shear, and weakly convergent upper-level flow
should limit intensification for the next 12-24 h. However, the
system is still expected to become a tropical storm in about 12 h
when the convection increases during the diurnal maximum. After 24
h, increased upper-level divergence, decreased shear, and better
organization should allow a faster development rate, and the system
is expected to steadily strengthen. The new intensity forecast
follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to become a
hurricane before landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula, with a
forecast peak intensity of 70 kt being near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance.

No changes to the current watches are required at this time. A
Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for Jamaica Monday morning
depending on the evolution of the track and the 34-kt wind radii.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 15.8N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1200Z 16.0N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0000Z 16.3N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 16.7N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 17.1N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 17.3N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.1N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:55 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

The system has changed little in organization overnight. Deep
convection is not very extensive at this time and convective banding
features are rather limited, as evidenced by a Dvorak classification
of T1.0 from TAFB. Thus, the disturbance still lacks sufficient
organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is somewhat
elongated from south to north, and the maximum winds are 30-35 kt.
Satellite images show that the broad center is located just to the
west of the main area of deep convection.

The disturbance continues moving generally westward, or around
270/10 kt. A mid-level anticyclone to the north of the system
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward track for the next
48 hours or so. Then, as the high shifts westward, the system is
forecast to turn west-southwestward when it nears the coast of
Belize or eastern Yucatan. The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus and not much different from the previous NHC
prediction. It should be noted, however, that the the forecast
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the
circulation center becomes better defined.

It is expected that the system will acquire sufficient convective
organization to make the transition to a tropical cyclone in 12
hours or so. During the next couple of days, the system/tropical
cyclone will be traversing very warm waters and moving through a
fairly moist air mass. Also, the upper-level winds are forecast by
the global models to become increasingly anticyclonic which should
enhance the outflow over the area. Therefore strengthening appears
likely and the official forecast continues to call for hurricane
status before landfall in Belize or the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
This is near or above the latest intensity consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning today for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 15.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1800Z 16.1N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0600Z 16.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 16.8N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 17.2N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 17.4N 86.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.2N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:24 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level
circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system
is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused
the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary
convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler
radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with
height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had
numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the
pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to
call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35
kt.

After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at
about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward
for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As
the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move
westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches
Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and
only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast.

Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic
conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level
humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still
have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern
quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen
the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for
the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous
forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the
high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of
the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official
forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend,
but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger
changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data
for the 12 UTC suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required by late today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:09 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND
THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras, plus a
Tropical Storm Watch for the entire north coast of the country.

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala
northward to south of Chetumal Mexico.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Guatemala from the border with Honduras
westward to Puerto Barrios.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa is becoming better organized.
A large ball of convection has formed just southeast of the center,
and banding features are becoming more prominent northwest of the
center. Additionally, wind data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that the low-level circulation was becoming
less elongated, with a more circular pattern on the final pass.
The plane found maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 49 kt and
numerous SFMR values of 35 kt during the mission. This was the
basis for the 40 kt initial wind speed on the intermediate, and that
value is kept for this advisory.

Cirrus cloud motions are showing that the upper-level flow near Lisa
is changing from westerly to easterly, with outflow also increasing
in the western quadrant. This change suggests that the shear is
abating near the tropical cyclone. While oceanic conditions are
also favorable for strengthening, there is still a fair bit of dry
air aloft that Lisa will have to encounter, which could temper
intensification rates. Overall, gradual strengthening is expected,
and the new forecast is similar to the previous one. Interestingly,
the model guidance is stronger than the last cycle, perhaps due to
the aircraft data, and is now more consistent with the latest NHC
intensity prediction.

Aircraft fixes show that Lisa continues to move westward at about 12
kt. There have been no changes to the synoptic pattern with the
storm forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next
day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. Lisa should move
westward or possibly a little south-of-west while it approaches
Belize on Wednesday due to the ridge strengthening. Model guidance
remains in very good agreement and, similar to the last advisory, a
small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, with
the core of Lisa impacting Belize on Wednesday. We will have to
monitor whether some portion of Lisa tries to pull a trick in the
southern Bay of Campeche at long range with some models suggesting
that a portion of the circulation could make it there, but that's
not considered likely at this time.

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras
and Belize due to the new forecast and timing, with tropical storm
watches on the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Guatemala and
portions of the southeastern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of Jamaica, the north coast of
Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and the southeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

2. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

3. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.5N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE AND THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Lisa is gradually becoming better organized with the associated
convection deepening and expanding around the center. However, the
system still lacks banding features. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are currently investigating Lisa and so far have found
flight-level winds as high as 46 kt and peak SFMR winds of about 35
kt. This data supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A low- to
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Lisa is expected to build
westward. This pattern should keep the storm on a steady westward
path, bringing the core of the cyclone near or just north of the Bay
Islands of Honduras late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and across
Belize by late Wednesday. The models are in fairly good agreement
through landfall, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one during the next couple of days. After landfall, the
models diverge with some solutions showing a northwest track and
others a southwest motion. The NHC track forecast continues to split
the difference, and it is a touch south of the previous one to be a
little closer to the various consensus models.

The environmental conditions appear relatively favorable for Lisa
to strengthen during the next 36 to 48 hours. SSTs are quite warm
beneath the cyclone and the vertical wind shear is expected to be
low to moderate. There is some dry air near the system, however,
which might slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the consensus models and continues to
show Lisa becoming a hurricane when it is over the Gulf of Honduras
early Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain that intensity when
it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system
moves inland, and even though the forecast shows a 96-h point, it
is certainty possible that Lisa could have dissipated by then.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where
tropical storm conditions are possible.

3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.0N 81.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.9N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0000Z 16.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:35 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand
overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding
noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not
yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found
flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of
40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in
organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The
storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and
remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening,
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast
follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is
between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower
statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and
Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa
should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track
during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring
the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early
Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The
dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC
track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated
track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and
24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast
thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Caribbean coast
of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
where tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday
afternoon.

3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands starting late Tuesday through Thursday.

4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.4N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.7N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.0N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 03/1800Z 17.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0600Z 17.0N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA POISED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 81.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:11 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 81.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided
critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has
started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to
55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde
data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt
as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite
classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small
radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with
the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample
fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it
approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast,
but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are
increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast
is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No
significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low-
to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the
tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next
couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the
cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and
across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models
remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by
Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala to
south of Chetumal Mexico.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better
organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with
more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates have increased as
well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the
TAFB fix and near an average of the available values. Two Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be
investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data.

Conditions look ripe for continued intensification. Other than some
lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low
shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding
outflow pattern. These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of
rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin
flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours.
Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa
becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall. The new NHC
forecast is similar to those models (note that further
intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize
landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt. This
westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated
due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a
vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level
southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near
landfall. Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20
n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in
that direction.

With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the
forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across
Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Although the new NHC
forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn't expected to
be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and
re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.7N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.2N 87.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 17.3N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 17.6N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 18.4N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 19.8N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING LISA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found that Lisa is
strengthening this evening. Lisa is a small storm, with
tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to 60 n mi from the
center. The minimum central pressure continues to fall, and the
latest estimate from the dropsonde observations is 993 mb. Data
from the SFMR and Tail Doppler Radar show that surface or
near-surface winds range between 55 to 60 kt, and the initial
intensity is increased to 60 kt.

Lisa is on a strengthening trend. Models suggest atmospheric and
oceanic conditions should be conducive for additional
intensification until the storm makes landfall in Belize within 24
hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is still
possible. The official forecast shows a peak of 75 kt in 12 hours,
however the true peak intensity will likely occur between 12 and 24
hours and could be higher. Rapid weakening is expected after the
storm moves inland, and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression
in the Bay of Campeche in 72 to 96 hours and weaken to a remnant low
by the end of the forecast period.

The storm is moving just north of west at 280/13 kt. The track
reasoning is unchanged. A ridge to the north will continue to steer
Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall
on Wednesday evening. The storm is expected to follow the flow
around the low-to-mid level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 3 days
or so. The cyclone is then expected to turn southward in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward from the previous advisory in the short term, and the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been adjusted northward
to account for this shift.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting
Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and southeastern
Yucatan by Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning early Wednesday,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1200Z 17.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 17.5N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0000Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/0000Z 18.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum central pressure was
near 992 mb. Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from
Belize show little change in organization, and based on these
observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the
cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The
forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as
it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern
Mexico. The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before
the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause
enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is
still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h.

The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will
continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed
through landfall. The storm is the expected to follow the flow
around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60
h. After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn
southward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar
to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is
in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan
by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 19.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:45 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
700 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE HEADED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 86.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:04 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 87.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning,
with strong convection near the center. Flight-level, SFMR-observed
surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds
are near 70 kt. This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core
hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across.

The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has
a small window for additional intensification before the center
crosses the coastline. The official forecast shows a 75-kt
intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that
Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall. The cyclone
will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. Although the center is forecast to emerge over
the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause
the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or
sooner.

Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt. Over the
next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high pressure area. In 3-5 days, the weak and
shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow. The
official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus
guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.3N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 17.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 18.6N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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