ATL: MARTIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:11 am

1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#22 Postby Buck » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:17 am

I always like making it to the M name for some reason.
3 likes   

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#23 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:41 am

Looks like a vigorous circulation on visible.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#24 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:01 am

Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:05 am

Buck wrote:I always like making it to the M name for some reason.


13th named storm of the season...of course, black cats, the Jersey Devil, and Jason Vorrhees would be happy :lol:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#26 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:05 am

For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.
1 likes   

User avatar
LemieT
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 75
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:31 pm
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#27 Postby LemieT » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:12 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.



One weirdo season...
1 likes   

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#28 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:26 am

LemieT wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.



One weirdo season...


La Nina years tend to have a lot of late season activity.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#29 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:47 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.



It's amazing how hurricanes the last 10 years will struggle at 15-20N in the "MDR", but absolutely flourish in the middle of the Atlantic near 40N even in November.
3 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#30 Postby Teban54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:01 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes.



It's amazing how hurricanes the last 10 years will struggle at 15-20N in the "MDR", but absolutely flourish in the middle of the Atlantic near 40N even in November.

Makes me wonder if there's a need to distinguish Main Development Region from Main Intensification Region lol.
1 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#31 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:05 am

Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#32 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:48 am

Yep it been a weird season, Martin is looking good for this late in the season.

2 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#33 Postby Teban54 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:13 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.

Danielle and Earl.

Earl may have given Bermuda a scare, though.
1 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#34 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:12 pm

Teban54 wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Finally a storm expected to become a hurricane without plowing into land somewhere. Seems to be a rare occurrence this season.

Danielle and Earl.

Earl may have given Bermuda a scare, though.

Danielle's really the only one that didn't threaten land at some point
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#35 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:25 pm

The 12z HWRF shows Martin peaking in the mid-960s with winds around 75-85 kt before post-tropical transition, which seems to be around 06z-12z Thursday morning.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#36 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:12 pm

Teban54 wrote:Makes me wonder if there's a need to distinguish Main Development Region from Main Intensification Region lol.


The Martin Development Region, if you will
11 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#37 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:25 pm

aspen wrote:Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?


2001 had Michelle and Noel on November 5, though I can't think of any seasons outside of that
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Landy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:43 pm
Location: Port Orange, FL

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#38 Postby Landy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:35 pm

Hammy wrote:
aspen wrote:Martin’s first advisory calls for a 70 kt peak before turning into a 75 kt extratropical low. There’s a chance we could have Hurricanes Lisa and Martin active at the same time. Has there ever been a November with two simultaneously active hurricanes?


2001 had Michelle and Noel on November 5, though I can't think of any seasons outside of that


Klotzbach made a tweet earlier today regarding this. 1932 also saw two concurrent November hurricanes being the Cuba hurricane and Storm 15. So 2022 would be the third occurrence if it comes to pass. :D
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:50 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#40 Postby Buck » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:51 pm

There he goes... popping owffff with that deep convection.
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests