ATL: MARTIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: MARTIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:24 pm

Is this the same system that tried to develop north of Puerto Rico?

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 300 miles
northeast of Bermuda. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the
low, while it is attached to a frontal boundary to the north, also
has a small core with gale-force winds and a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms near the center. This system has a small
window for some additional subtropical or tropical development
before it is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low
in 2-3 days while it moves east-northeastward. For more information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:24 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:50 pm

Thought that was it for this disturbance yesterday. Maybe could get a short-lived storm out of this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:54 pm

It looks better then lisa!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:09 pm

That was extremely fast! Even faster than 94L! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:45 pm

Doesn't have much time but it's certainly not the worst looking invest ever. If it can sustain a little more convection I could see it becoming a short lived TD/weak TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 31, 2022 3:59 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Doesn't have much time but it's certainly not the worst looking invest ever. If it can sustain a little more convection I could see it becoming a short lived TD/weak TS.

Seeing how many other really good-looking invests went unclassified this year, I’m doubtful this one officially becomes a TC.

There are so many invests this year that were likely brief TDs or TSs, but the NHC never pulled the trigger on them. I think at least one could and should get upgraded in post-season, with the two best candidates being the August western Gulf disturbance and 95L in September.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:58 pm

8 PM TWO:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 350 miles
northeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity, while not
well-organized, has persisted near the center of the low today and
the system is producing gale-force winds near its center. Some
tropical or subtropical development is possible tonight through
early Thursday while the low moves generally east-northeastward. On
Thursday, the system is expected to become fully extratropical and
merge with a larger non-tropical low over the north-central
Atlantic. For more information on this system, including Gale
Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:41 pm

As someone mentioned above the NHC seems to have changed their tone on these brief subtropical spin up systems compared to the last few years. Had several of them this year they didn't pull the trigger on. Curious to see what they do post season.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:48 pm

That actually looks like a sheared tropical storm to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 31, 2022 11:29 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:19 am

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 425 miles
northeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
continued to persist near and to the north of the center of the
low overnight. Some additional development is possible through
late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and the system could become a
tropical or subtropical storm while it moves generally
east-northeastward. By early Thursday, the system is expected to
become fully extratropical and merge with a larger non-tropical low
over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:22 am

Nice new burst of convection over the center. I've certainly seen much worse classified, if it were me I would probably upgrade it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:10 am

Up to 70%.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
better organized overnight in association with a non-tropical area
of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical or
subtropical storm within the next day or so while it moves generally
east-northeastward. By late Wednesday night or early Thursday, the
system is expected to become fully extratropical and merge with a
larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:41 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:As someone mentioned above the NHC seems to have changed their tone on these brief subtropical spin up systems compared to the last few years. Had several of them this year they didn't pull the trigger on. Curious to see what they do post season.

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NHC has had an acting director since June (Ken Graham was tapped as NWS director) so I have to wonder if that has something to do with it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:56 am

Up to 90%.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This
low has been acquiring tropical characteristics during
the last 24 hours, and environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development. The system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical storm later today while it moves generally
east-northeastward. By late Wednesday night or early Thursday, the
system is expected to become fully extratropical and merge with a
larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, including Storm Warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:57 am

We should have TS Martin at 11am. I don’t know what could possibly hold this back from classification.

The 06z HWRF has this become a hurricane Wednesday night before turning post-tropical Thursday morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:48 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MARTIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#20 Postby Subtrop » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:07 am

AL, 16, 2022110112, , BEST, 0, 353N, 565W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 180, 60, 60, 180, 1014, 250, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARTIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037, TRANSITIONED, alD62022 to al162022,
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