SIO: FOUR - Post-Tropical

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Iceresistance
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SIO: FOUR - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 02, 2022 2:39 pm

From JTWC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. A 021529Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A CENTRAL CORE OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER POSITION, WITH A MUCH BETTER
STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD SUGGEST. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IN NOT TOO
SHABBY FOR 93S TO DEVELOP WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS
THAT HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE LOOPING BACK ON ITSELF AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A LOW END TS STRENGTH CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: SIO: FOUR - Tropical Cyclone

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2022 6:37 am

04S FOUR 221106 0600 12.6S 83.7E SHEM 30 1008
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Iceresistance
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Re: SIO: FOUR - Tropical Cyclone

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:44 am

Where did it go? It has literally vanished from the face of the Earth!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: SIO: FOUR - Tropical Cyclone

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:45 am

Iceresistance wrote:Where did it go? It has literally vanished from the face of the Earth!


Is Post-Tropical.
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