THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. A 021529Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A CENTRAL CORE OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER POSITION, WITH A MUCH BETTER
STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD SUGGEST. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IN NOT TOO
SHABBY FOR 93S TO DEVELOP WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS
THAT HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE LOOPING BACK ON ITSELF AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A LOW END TS STRENGTH CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. A 021529Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A CENTRAL CORE OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER POSITION, WITH A MUCH BETTER
STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD SUGGEST. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IN NOT TOO
SHABBY FOR 93S TO DEVELOP WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS
THAT HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE LOOPING BACK ON ITSELF AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A LOW END TS STRENGTH CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.