ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1521 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:07 am

From the 10 AM EST discussion.

Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1522 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:05 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1523 Postby toad strangler » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:08 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1524 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:13 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1525 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:37 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1526 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:38 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1527 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:46 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1528 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:46 pm

Canaveral National Seashore has sustained some pretty significant damage and beach erosion.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1529 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:06 pm

This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Nicole:

AL172022, NICOLE, 29,
20221106, 1200, , LO, 20.6N, 66.8W, 30, 1006,
20221106, 1800, , SS, 22.4N, 66.9W, 35, 1005,
20221107, 0000, , SS, 24.0N, 67.5W, 40, 1003,
20221107, 0600, , SS, 25.2N, 68.3W, 40, 1002,
20221107, 1200, , SS, 25.9N, 69.1W, 40, 1001,
20221107, 1800, , SS, 26.4N, 70.0W, 40, 1000,
20221108, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.8W, 45, 998,
20221108, 0600, , TS, 27.4N, 71.4W, 45, 997,
20221108, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 72.2W, 50, 992,
20221108, 1800, , TS, 27.6N, 73.2W, 50, 990,
20221109, 0000, , TS, 27.2N, 74.3W, 55, 985,
20221109, 0600, , TS, 26.8N, 75.3W, 60, 985,
20221109, 1200, , TS, 26.6N, 76.2W, 60, 984,
20221109, 1715, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 65, 983,
20221109, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.3W, 65, 983,
20221110, 2330, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.3W, 70, 980,
20221110, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 78.4W, 70, 979,
20221110, 0600, , HU, 27.3N, 79.9W, 65, 979,
20221110, 0800, L, HU, 27.4N, 80.3W, 65, 980,
20221110, 1200, , TS, 28.0N, 81.6W, 50, 984,
20221110, 1800, , TS, 28.9N, 82.8W, 45, 988,
20221110, 2230, L, TS, 29.8N, 83.6W, 40, 989,
20221111, 0000, , TS, 30.1N, 83.8W, 35, 991,
20221111, 0600, , TS, 31.3N, 84.5W, 30, 996,
20221111, 1200, , TD, 33.2N, 84.5W, 30, 998,
20221111, 1800, , TD, 35.8N, 83.5W, 25, 999,

Absorbed by incoming front at 0000Z November 12.

* Genesis is moved up 12 hours. An ASCAT pass around 0000Z November 7 showed a solid circulation, and the frontal structures appeared to be gone by then. Hence, 1800Z November 6 is genesis as a subtropical storm in this analysis.

* It's debatable when it went from subtropical to tropical. My analysis has it at 0000Z November 8, but arguments could be made earlier or later.

* Added in the Bahamian landfalls, both of which I estimate were at hurricane intensity.

* The peak intensity I estimate was 70 kt at 0000Z November 10. That is based on 78 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the NOAA flight and a peak SFMR reading which I recall was 67 kt.

* Slight weakening likely occurred before landfall in Florida, although data was limited for the peak winds. Radar velocities dropped slightly before landfall as well, which support an intensity of 65 kt. The pressure, however, likely fell a bit more based on surface data from multiple storm chasers - analyzed at 978 mb.

* A Gulf landfall is added as I estimate it went back over water late on November 10 as a 40 kt tropical storm. After that, little change is made to absorption.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1530 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Nicole:

AL172022, NICOLE, 29,
20221106, 1200, , LO, 20.6N, 66.8W, 30, 1006,
20221106, 1800, , SS, 22.4N, 66.9W, 35, 1005,
20221107, 0000, , SS, 24.0N, 67.5W, 40, 1003,
20221107, 0600, , SS, 25.2N, 68.3W, 40, 1002,
20221107, 1200, , SS, 25.9N, 69.1W, 40, 1001,
20221107, 1800, , SS, 26.4N, 70.0W, 40, 1000,
20221108, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.8W, 45, 998,
20221108, 0600, , TS, 27.4N, 71.4W, 45, 997,
20221108, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 72.2W, 50, 992,
20221108, 1800, , TS, 27.6N, 73.2W, 50, 990,
20221109, 0000, , TS, 27.2N, 74.3W, 55, 985,
20221109, 0600, , TS, 26.8N, 75.3W, 60, 985,
20221109, 1200, , TS, 26.6N, 76.2W, 60, 984,
20221109, 1715, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 65, 983,
20221109, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.3W, 65, 983,
20221110, 2330, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.3W, 70, 980,
20221110, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 78.4W, 70, 979,
20221110, 0600, , HU, 27.3N, 79.9W, 65, 978,
20221110, 0800, L, HU, 27.4N, 80.3W, 65, 978,
20221110, 1200, , TS, 28.0N, 81.6W, 50, 984,
20221110, 1800, , TS, 28.9N, 82.8W, 45, 988,
20221110, 2230, L, TS, 29.8N, 83.6W, 40, 989,
20221111, 0000, , TS, 30.1N, 83.8W, 35, 991,
20221111, 0600, , TS, 31.3N, 84.5W, 30, 996,
20221111, 1200, , TD, 33.2N, 84.5W, 30, 998,
20221111, 1800, , TD, 35.8N, 83.5W, 25, 999,

Absorbed by incoming front at 0000Z November 12.

* Genesis is moved up 12 hours. An ASCAT pass around 0000Z November 7 showed a solid circulation, and the frontal structures appeared to be gone by then. Hence, 1800Z November 6 is genesis as a subtropical storm in this analysis.

* It's debatable when it went from subtropical to tropical. My analysis has it at 0000Z November 8, but arguments could be made earlier or later.

* Added in the Bahamian landfalls, both of which I estimate were at hurricane intensity.

* The peak intensity I estimate was 70 kt at 0000Z November 10. That is based on 78 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the NOAA flight and a peak SFMR reading which I recall was 67 kt.

* Slight weakening likely occurred before landfall in Florida, although data was limited for the peak winds. Radar velocities dropped slightly before landfall as well, which support an intensity of 65 kt. The pressure, however, likely fell a bit more based on surface data from multiple storm chasers - analyzed at 978 mb.

* A Gulf landfall is added as I estimate it went back over water late on November 10 as a 40 kt tropical storm. After that, little change is made to absorption.


I highly doubt pressure was below the 980.6 mb that both myself and Mike Theiss recorded on N Hutchison Island. The pressure readings you referenced from other chasers were barely in the N portion of the eye. Faulty measurements I’m sure.
Last edited by ncforecaster89 on Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1531 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:53 pm

One of the more weirder storms I’ve tracked since it seemed to emulate Kate 1985 albeit weaker. Still, a November hurricane landfall in eastern Florida is probably the weirdest thing 2022 has done, although it has done practically that all season. Here’s to hoping it’s the last storm this season!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1532 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:36 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Nicole:

AL172022, NICOLE, 29,
20221106, 1200, , LO, 20.6N, 66.8W, 30, 1006,
20221106, 1800, , SS, 22.4N, 66.9W, 35, 1005,
20221107, 0000, , SS, 24.0N, 67.5W, 40, 1003,
20221107, 0600, , SS, 25.2N, 68.3W, 40, 1002,
20221107, 1200, , SS, 25.9N, 69.1W, 40, 1001,
20221107, 1800, , SS, 26.4N, 70.0W, 40, 1000,
20221108, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.8W, 45, 998,
20221108, 0600, , TS, 27.4N, 71.4W, 45, 997,
20221108, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 72.2W, 50, 992,
20221108, 1800, , TS, 27.6N, 73.2W, 50, 990,
20221109, 0000, , TS, 27.2N, 74.3W, 55, 985,
20221109, 0600, , TS, 26.8N, 75.3W, 60, 985,
20221109, 1200, , TS, 26.6N, 76.2W, 60, 984,
20221109, 1715, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 65, 983,
20221109, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.3W, 65, 983,
20221110, 2330, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.3W, 70, 980,
20221110, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 78.4W, 70, 979,
20221110, 0600, , HU, 27.3N, 79.9W, 65, 978,
20221110, 0800, L, HU, 27.4N, 80.3W, 65, 978,
20221110, 1200, , TS, 28.0N, 81.6W, 50, 984,
20221110, 1800, , TS, 28.9N, 82.8W, 45, 988,
20221110, 2230, L, TS, 29.8N, 83.6W, 40, 989,
20221111, 0000, , TS, 30.1N, 83.8W, 35, 991,
20221111, 0600, , TS, 31.3N, 84.5W, 30, 996,
20221111, 1200, , TD, 33.2N, 84.5W, 30, 998,
20221111, 1800, , TD, 35.8N, 83.5W, 25, 999,

Absorbed by incoming front at 0000Z November 12.

* Genesis is moved up 12 hours. An ASCAT pass around 0000Z November 7 showed a solid circulation, and the frontal structures appeared to be gone by then. Hence, 1800Z November 6 is genesis as a subtropical storm in this analysis.

* It's debatable when it went from subtropical to tropical. My analysis has it at 0000Z November 8, but arguments could be made earlier or later.

* Added in the Bahamian landfalls, both of which I estimate were at hurricane intensity.

* The peak intensity I estimate was 70 kt at 0000Z November 10. That is based on 78 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the NOAA flight and a peak SFMR reading which I recall was 67 kt.

* Slight weakening likely occurred before landfall in Florida, although data was limited for the peak winds. Radar velocities dropped slightly before landfall as well, which support an intensity of 65 kt. The pressure, however, likely fell a bit more based on surface data from multiple storm chasers - analyzed at 978 mb.

* A Gulf landfall is added as I estimate it went back over water late on November 10 as a 40 kt tropical storm. After that, little change is made to absorption.


I highly doubt pressure was below the 980.6 mb that both myself and Mike Theiss recorded on N Hutchison Island. The pressure readings you referenced from other chasers were barely in the N portion of the eye. Faulty measurements I’m sure.


I thought about that possibility, but the fact there were multiple such readings make me suggest that perhaps there was tilt between the pressure and radar centers.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1533 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ncforecaster89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Nicole:

AL172022, NICOLE, 29,
20221106, 1200, , LO, 20.6N, 66.8W, 30, 1006,
20221106, 1800, , SS, 22.4N, 66.9W, 35, 1005,
20221107, 0000, , SS, 24.0N, 67.5W, 40, 1003,
20221107, 0600, , SS, 25.2N, 68.3W, 40, 1002,
20221107, 1200, , SS, 25.9N, 69.1W, 40, 1001,
20221107, 1800, , SS, 26.4N, 70.0W, 40, 1000,
20221108, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.8W, 45, 998,
20221108, 0600, , TS, 27.4N, 71.4W, 45, 997,
20221108, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 72.2W, 50, 992,
20221108, 1800, , TS, 27.6N, 73.2W, 50, 990,
20221109, 0000, , TS, 27.2N, 74.3W, 55, 985,
20221109, 0600, , TS, 26.8N, 75.3W, 60, 985,
20221109, 1200, , TS, 26.6N, 76.2W, 60, 984,
20221109, 1715, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 65, 983,
20221109, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.3W, 65, 983,
20221110, 2330, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.3W, 70, 980,
20221110, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 78.4W, 70, 979,
20221110, 0600, , HU, 27.3N, 79.9W, 65, 978,
20221110, 0800, L, HU, 27.4N, 80.3W, 65, 978,
20221110, 1200, , TS, 28.0N, 81.6W, 50, 984,
20221110, 1800, , TS, 28.9N, 82.8W, 45, 988,
20221110, 2230, L, TS, 29.8N, 83.6W, 40, 989,
20221111, 0000, , TS, 30.1N, 83.8W, 35, 991,
20221111, 0600, , TS, 31.3N, 84.5W, 30, 996,
20221111, 1200, , TD, 33.2N, 84.5W, 30, 998,
20221111, 1800, , TD, 35.8N, 83.5W, 25, 999,

Absorbed by incoming front at 0000Z November 12.

* Genesis is moved up 12 hours. An ASCAT pass around 0000Z November 7 showed a solid circulation, and the frontal structures appeared to be gone by then. Hence, 1800Z November 6 is genesis as a subtropical storm in this analysis.

* It's debatable when it went from subtropical to tropical. My analysis has it at 0000Z November 8, but arguments could be made earlier or later.

* Added in the Bahamian landfalls, both of which I estimate were at hurricane intensity.

* The peak intensity I estimate was 70 kt at 0000Z November 10. That is based on 78 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the NOAA flight and a peak SFMR reading which I recall was 67 kt.

* Slight weakening likely occurred before landfall in Florida, although data was limited for the peak winds. Radar velocities dropped slightly before landfall as well, which support an intensity of 65 kt. The pressure, however, likely fell a bit more based on surface data from multiple storm chasers - analyzed at 978 mb.

* A Gulf landfall is added as I estimate it went back over water late on November 10 as a 40 kt tropical storm. After that, little change is made to absorption.


I highly doubt pressure was below the 980.6 mb that both myself and Mike Theiss recorded on N Hutchison Island. The pressure readings you referenced from other chasers were barely in the N portion of the eye. Faulty measurements I’m sure.


I thought about that possibility, but the fact there were multiple such readings make me suggest that perhaps there was tilt between the pressure and radar centers.


Hi Crazy! I always appreciate and respect these post-storm best-tracks you put together after each storm and agree with your assessments except the pressure only because I traveled up and down A1A and there was no pressure in the eye lower than the 980.6 on N Hutchison Island.

I’m aware of R. Timmer’s 977 mb. Who else supposedly had lower than the aforementioned?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1534 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:30 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
ncforecaster89 wrote:
I highly doubt pressure was below the 980.6 mb that both myself and Mike Theiss recorded on N Hutchison Island. The pressure readings you referenced from other chasers were barely in the N portion of the eye. Faulty measurements I’m sure.


I thought about that possibility, but the fact there were multiple such readings make me suggest that perhaps there was tilt between the pressure and radar centers.


Hi Crazy! I always appreciate and respect these post-storm best-tracks you put together after each storm and agree with your assessments except the pressure only because I traveled up and down A1A and there was no pressure in the eye lower than the 980.6 on N Hutchison Island.

I’m aware of R. Timmer’s 977 mb. Who else supposedly had lower than the aforementioned?


I thought I saw a 979 but it was recalibrated. I now agree that 980 was the pressure at landfall, and 979 the overall minimum.
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