ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:36 am

AL, 98, 2022110612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 668W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al982022


I guess it will be a very long thread.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was up for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123171
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:42 am

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 98, 2022110612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 668W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al982022


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

Here comes the hwrf, that will get everyone excited.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:47 am

It will be interesting what will the first hurricane intensity models will show later this morning.
Will have to wait for the 12z HWRF later this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:48 am

Looks like with both of our 70% systems the race for Nicole just got hotter...

Also, wow. This seems like it is going to be a very stunning but potentially hazardous event. Who would have thought in August that this season would end up producing November threats for the CONUS? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:53 am

Artemis I can’t catch a break. NASA just rolled it back out for its November 14th launch date, and now a hurricane might hit the Space Coast later this week. There is a very high chance the mission gets delayed again because of 98L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby tolakram » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:53 am

Floater just moved to 98L.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Invest right on time in my opinion, you have to have evidence of some center of circulation.

long shortwave loop
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-prregional-07-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby GCANE » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:54 am

Convection south of DR is moving west to east.
Puts the CoC over the middle of Hispaniola.
Will move north and over water later today.
Also, watching for the dry-air pinch off to occur then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:55 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby SFLcane » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:59 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby MetroMike » Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:59 am

Concerning pattern here that may try to hit both coasts of Florida, certainly a non zero chance of a big November surprise.

The implications for Election Day may be unprecedented and if there are any recounts warranted in any districts this will add to the confusion of balancing ballot security and public safety.Don’t believe officials have any idea what could happen in reguards to this important week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:00 am

Nice spin 21N 67W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:02 am

Could be a very unique system. Only 2 hurricanes ever impacted Florida in November/December. Kate in 1985 and Hurricane #7 ("Yankee" hurricane) in 1935. The latter is the only November hurricane to hit Florida from the east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:04 am



:eek: Also the Gulf Stream just before the Florida east coast could help intensify it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:08 am

One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby GCANE » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:13 am

This will impact the majority of the CONUS population, from Florida to Maine
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:14 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/WViaOjj.png


But the idea that it could form a "protective bubble" and enter an anomalously low shear environment that blunts dry air intrusions cannot be ruled out imho
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby Blown Away » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:14 am

GCANE wrote:Nice spin 21N 67W


Image

Nice spot GCANE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby GCANE » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:17 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/WViaOjj.png


Expecting that to get pinched off later today as the feed from the EPAC fires off convection, expands, and fills that in.
LL spin at 21N 67W will move into the CoC currently over Hispaniola, which will move north.
Vort stacking will ensue then with a feeder band from the EPAC and MDR ITCZ.
Pretty dang good setup for intensification IMHO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby GCANE » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:21 am

Too bad recon not going out today.
Maybe they'll change their minds later today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:22 am



Joe Bastardi may have also generally said that Florida is overdue for a November Hurricane Landfall (not including Eta in 2020).
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