#1529 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:06 pm
This is unofficial, but here is my assessment and best track of Nicole:
AL172022, NICOLE, 29,
20221106, 1200, , LO, 20.6N, 66.8W, 30, 1006,
20221106, 1800, , SS, 22.4N, 66.9W, 35, 1005,
20221107, 0000, , SS, 24.0N, 67.5W, 40, 1003,
20221107, 0600, , SS, 25.2N, 68.3W, 40, 1002,
20221107, 1200, , SS, 25.9N, 69.1W, 40, 1001,
20221107, 1800, , SS, 26.4N, 70.0W, 40, 1000,
20221108, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.8W, 45, 998,
20221108, 0600, , TS, 27.4N, 71.4W, 45, 997,
20221108, 1200, , TS, 27.7N, 72.2W, 50, 992,
20221108, 1800, , TS, 27.6N, 73.2W, 50, 990,
20221109, 0000, , TS, 27.2N, 74.3W, 55, 985,
20221109, 0600, , TS, 26.8N, 75.3W, 60, 985,
20221109, 1200, , TS, 26.6N, 76.2W, 60, 984,
20221109, 1715, L, HU, 26.5N, 77.1W, 65, 983,
20221109, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 77.3W, 65, 983,
20221110, 2330, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.3W, 70, 980,
20221110, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 78.4W, 70, 979,
20221110, 0600, , HU, 27.3N, 79.9W, 65, 979,
20221110, 0800, L, HU, 27.4N, 80.3W, 65, 980,
20221110, 1200, , TS, 28.0N, 81.6W, 50, 984,
20221110, 1800, , TS, 28.9N, 82.8W, 45, 988,
20221110, 2230, L, TS, 29.8N, 83.6W, 40, 989,
20221111, 0000, , TS, 30.1N, 83.8W, 35, 991,
20221111, 0600, , TS, 31.3N, 84.5W, 30, 996,
20221111, 1200, , TD, 33.2N, 84.5W, 30, 998,
20221111, 1800, , TD, 35.8N, 83.5W, 25, 999,
Absorbed by incoming front at 0000Z November 12.
* Genesis is moved up 12 hours. An ASCAT pass around 0000Z November 7 showed a solid circulation, and the frontal structures appeared to be gone by then. Hence, 1800Z November 6 is genesis as a subtropical storm in this analysis.
* It's debatable when it went from subtropical to tropical. My analysis has it at 0000Z November 8, but arguments could be made earlier or later.
* Added in the Bahamian landfalls, both of which I estimate were at hurricane intensity.
* The peak intensity I estimate was 70 kt at 0000Z November 10. That is based on 78 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the NOAA flight and a peak SFMR reading which I recall was 67 kt.
* Slight weakening likely occurred before landfall in Florida, although data was limited for the peak winds. Radar velocities dropped slightly before landfall as well, which support an intensity of 65 kt. The pressure, however, likely fell a bit more based on surface data from multiple storm chasers - analyzed at 978 mb.
* A Gulf landfall is added as I estimate it went back over water late on November 10 as a 40 kt tropical storm. After that, little change is made to absorption.
Last edited by
CrazyC83 on Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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