ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

VIS imagery, ASCAT, Buoys all pointing to this being a TD.
Just waiting in IR-Sat analysis.
Maybe NHC will pull the trigger for a PTC once that comes in.

[NDG]

One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/WViaOjj.png

I guess that is why the Euro is not so aggressive with 98L like the rest of the models. But if UL difluence gets going like the GFS shows it should moisten up its own environment, though most of the moisture could still stay to the north of the low pressure center, time will tell.

[tolakram]

VIS imagery, ASCAT, Buoys all pointing to this being a TD.
Just waiting in IR-Sat analysis.
Maybe NHC will pull the trigger for a PTC once that comes in.

Where is the center? You said over Hispaniola, I see something north, as did you a few posts ago. Is that a stable center? I could see PTC but just winds do not make a TD in my opinion.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like your typical nor'eastern… GFS might be overdoing it.

[NDG]

98L has that subtropical look to it if not extra tropical with that dry air pinching in. Do not be surprised when later today and tomorrow it will not have the best satellite presentation as the models show but at some point it will start getting more tropical characteristics later tomorrow into Tuesday, especially on Wednesday.

[NDG]

Looks like your typical nor'eastern… GFS might be overdoing it.

Is nothing like a nor easter, the set up is nothing like it, and is just not the GFS, the ICON and CMC intensify it into a hurricane over the warm tropical waters.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like your typical nor'eastern… GFS might be overdoing it.

Wait what? This system isn't even at that kind of latitude, it's literally south of the Tropic of Cancer

[GCANE]

VIS imagery, ASCAT, Buoys all pointing to this being a TD.
Just waiting in IR-Sat analysis.
Maybe NHC will pull the trigger for a PTC once that comes in.

Where is the center? You said over Hispaniola, I see something north, as did you a few posts ago. Is that a stable center? I could see PTC but just winds do not make a TD in my opinion.

It's complicated.
The broad CoC is over Hispaniola due to UL Cutoff Low working down to the surface.
A swirl due to firing convection is NE of that at 21N 67W.
The two should move together later today.
I think I said yesterday it would be around 23N 70W.
This is pretty much how GFS has been advertising the setup for the past few days.
Also forecasts the development of the feeder band from the EPAC and MDR ITCZ infeeds.
I am surprised how well this is evolving per GFS forecast.
This in due to the fact it is a synoptic-scale development as opposed to a meso-scale development.

BTW, last ASCAT showed tons of west winds, thus my comment about a TD.

[toad strangler]

Nor’ Easters do not form in this area. They typically come from the GOM or just off the SE Coast.

These storms usually take a north or northeastward track following their development, intensifying along the way due to the temperature difference between the cold Arctic air transported across the U.S. by the polar jet and the warm air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.

That’s not to say 98L won’t be sub tropical though. Good chance of that.

[GCANE]

Nor’ Easters do not form in this area. They typically come from the GOM or just of the SE Coast.

These storms usually take a north or northeastward track following their development, intensifying along the way due to the temperature difference between the cold Arctic air transported across the U.S. by the polar jet and the warm air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.

That’s not good say 98L won’t be sub tropical though. Good chance of that.

This will run up the coast and expand out.
Pretty much the same effect as a N'easter.
Would be a disaster if this phases with the Great Lakes Low this is forecast to develop while this is in FL, especially if the Great-Lakes Low bombs out.

[GCANE]

Moisture getting into the Mona Passage.
That dry-air infeed is getting quickly pinched off.

[Michele B]

One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/WViaOjj.png

Hope it DRIES out and BLOWS AWAY In the other direction.

[GCANE]

The swirl is already picking up an infeed coming across PR.

[MetroMike]

I see problems arising because this is a November event shaping up and local TV mets want to downplay the real possibilities at least here in the Tampa area. Because this has no public track as it is not designated by the NHC as a PTC it relies on communication by local weather experts who seem to dismiss the potential because it’s November.

This is not a normal setup and things are about a month behind in the tropics and it is real difficult to change the mindsets of TV mets.

[robbielyn]

One big problem for 98L is the amount of dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/WViaOjj.png

But the idea that it could form a "protective bubble" and enter an anomalously low shear environment that blunts dry air intrusions cannot be ruled out imho

that dry air will get pinched off after it crosses hispaniola.

[robbielyn]

I see problems arising because this is a November event shaping up and local TV mets want to downplay the real possibilities at least here in the Tampa area. Because this has no public track as it is not designated by the NHC as a PTC it relies on communication by local weather experts who seem to dismiss the potential because it’s November.

This is not a normal setup and things are about a month behind in the tropics and it is real difficult to change the mindsets of TV mets.

Brian shields has a youtube channel mr weatherman he’s an orlando met my bad anyways he talks about a hurricane coming. he’s not downplaying it.

[ObsessedMiami]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

[GCANE]

Wow, popups already forming along the north-shore of DR.
Very early in the day for that.
Indicates a very moist and unstable boundary layer.
Another indication this will develop quickly once the vorts stack.

[GCANE]

Swirl's convection starting to fire off lightning.

[toad strangler]

The timing for Election Day is most interesting for planners. If shelters have to open, many would be acting as polling places only 24 hours before the event. Plus any delays in recounting. Ooofff bad timing, Just another Emergency Planner headache for a November storm

Honestly it’s mind boggling why people don’t take advantage of early voting. You have just about two weeks to do it.

Anyway, I’ll be shocked if this bundles up into a true warm core eyewall concentrated energy cyclone. Im leaning heavily to a sub tropical cyclone with a large swath of rain and wind to the N of whatever flavor of center forms. Yeah, similar to a Nor’Easter. Just not where you would expect to see one develop. Although it may end up taking the NE route up the CONUS east coast.