ATL: NICOLE - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#441 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:55 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#442 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:56 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Spaghetti plots all still way off raw data.


You mean they don’t include current recon data?



Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.


So these plots are from this morning?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#443 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:57 pm

18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#444 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:00 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
You mean they don’t include current recon data?



Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.


So these plots are from this morning?


No they are just wrong period. Lol

From the 11am

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#445 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:02 pm


That looks south to me, real far south.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#446 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:02 pm

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#447 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:07 pm

Euro trend:

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#448 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:08 pm

chris_fit wrote:18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit


18Z UKMET is near Vero Beach, which is ~20 miles south of 12Z and about an hour earlier and one mb stronger for landfall.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#449 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:13 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:

Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.


So these plots are from this morning?


No they are just wrong period. Lol

From the 11am

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.


Lol, I’m not sure who but I think one of us is confused. I know what it said at 11am but how do we know they are still wrong this evening?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#450 Postby chris_fit » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:13 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit


18Z UKMET is near Vero Beach, which is ~20 miles south of 12Z and about an hour earlier and one mb stronger for landfall.


Geez everything shifting South again. Gots a tarp on my roof from Ian. Stay away from west central Florida Nicole!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#451 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif


Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#452 Postby tronbunny » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:17 pm

I really do not like the idea that there will be any impact at all on SW Florida as they try to recover from Ian.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#453 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:21 pm



That’s my call PB landfall.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#454 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:21 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif


Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?


12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#455 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:37 pm

NDG wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif


Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?


12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/cPOK50s.png
https://i.imgur.com/kESXLy4.png


18z Euro better defined COC.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#456 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:49 pm

NDG wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif


Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?


12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/cPOK50s.png
https://i.imgur.com/kESXLy4.png


Yes but the 18Z Euro turn WNW takes a bit longer than the 12Z, just off the Palm Beach coast. It looks like it gets closer to the Palm Beach County coastline.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#457 Postby crimi481 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:48 pm

Looks hybrid - center within much larger center? Anomaly . Model confusion. I know I am lol
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#458 Postby Beachside » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:10 pm

So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#459 Postby sweetpea » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:12 pm

Beachside wrote:So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.


It changed for Thursday a little bit, about 20 miles further west.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#460 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:17 pm

Beachside wrote:So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.


Yup, no change. Still landfall around Ft. Pierce.
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