ATL: NICOLE - Models

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#461 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:18 pm

crimi481 wrote:Looks hybrid - center within much larger center? Anomaly . Model confusion. I know I am lol


It’s exactly as HWRF had predicted as far as structure goes for this time in the forecast. Then if Ramps back up before dawn.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#462 Postby jhpigott » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:21 pm

Florida landfall on 0z ICON looks sw of prior run.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#463 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:27 pm

jhpigott wrote:Florida landfall on 0z ICON looks sw of prior run.


Image

00z ICON… SW of 18z with Stuart/PSL landfall…
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#464 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:46 pm

The GFS shifted slightly north and is stronger at 979mb

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#465 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS shifted slightly north and is stronger at 979mb

https://i.postimg.cc/9XYHJFd8/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh0-36.gif


Looks right on the NHC track
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#466 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:10 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS shifted slightly north and is stronger at 979mb

https://i.postimg.cc/9XYHJFd8/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh0-36.gif


Looks right on the NHC track


It’s time to watch satellite being almost within 24 hours. The LLC tightening up happens in most models over the Gulf Stream between Grand Bahama and FL.

Seems a path below Grand Bahama is landfall between WPB to Jupiter and above is Jupiter to Ft Pierce… JMHO
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#467 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:12 pm

Broward back to light winds looks like.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#468 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:15 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Broward back to light winds looks like.


Nicole is still diving WSW and the bottom of track was 26.9N per NHC 10pm. Nicole is almost there and no signs of W turn.

That is one heck of a high pressure out there we have been feeling all day…
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#469 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:23 pm

Image

00z CMC… Landfall near Ft Pierce… Another W shift for one of the R outliers since the beginning…
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#470 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:14 am

LarryWx wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit


18Z UKMET is near Vero Beach, which is ~20 miles south of 12Z and about an hour earlier and one mb stronger for landfall.


0Z UKMET continued the south trend on landfall and does so at Ft. Pierce vs Vero Beach on the 18Z:

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 74.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2022 0 27.3N 74.6W 991 46
1200UTC 09.11.2022 12 26.9N 76.4W 990 45
0000UTC 10.11.2022 24 26.9N 79.2W 987 47
1200UTC 10.11.2022 36 28.5N 82.0W 989 39
0000UTC 11.11.2022 48 30.1N 84.6W 992 33
1200UTC 11.11.2022 60 32.8N 84.6W 998 25
0000UTC 12.11.2022 72 39.5N 81.2W 994 20
1200UTC 12.11.2022 84 45.7N 73.4W 985 33
0000UTC 13.11.2022 96 48.6N 61.0W 987 44
1200UTC 13.11.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#471 Postby Beachside » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:22 am

4am NHC update ticks track a bit farther south. Now Hobe Sound landfall.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#472 Postby chris_fit » Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:32 am

06Z GFS shifted W/S slightly especially in the 24+ range. Almost looks like it tightens up as it goes across te state.

Image

Image

Compared to the 00Z

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#473 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:43 am

I think someone broke the HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#474 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:00 am



Those are 10 meter winds lol.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#475 Postby SFLcane » Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:13 am

FYI, consensus model way south now over WPB.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#476 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:22 am

SFLcane wrote:


Those are 10 meter winds lol.


Ohh crap, thank god lol. I need coffee.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#477 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:22 am

New 12z TVCN is back north over Ft Pierce.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#478 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:24 am



These are winds at H85, not at the surface.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#479 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:33 am

06z Euro also shifted north, now Ft Pierce & Vero Beach.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#480 Postby Beachside » Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:47 am

NDG wrote:New 12z TVCN is back north over Ft Pierce.

https://i.imgur.com/ADziUrM.gif

Well that stinks for those of us on the Space Coast :x
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