ATL: NICOLE - Models

[cane5]

How does, if any, would a stronger deeper hurricane moving WSW respond to a very strong HP?? Past examples they go farther S? Does this apply here?

Look at Katrina, was heading right at me, I was ready to go in the eye and boom, takes the big dive and rolls through the everglades.

Let me leave this right here for everyone else who doesn't remember Katrina...

https://imgur.com/zwiNLn7

I'm used to too many of these ATL storms under strong high pressures being pushed further south than expected (Andrew, Ike, Irma, Katrina etc). Lots of conflicting models, but I would bet on this being closer to WPB or even Broward than the models are currently showing, with its current heading. Still gonna be nasty for everyone up the east coast no matter what.

Also the warm gulfstream waters have its own kind of effects. Suddenly feeling there is more time for this cosmic shift south. Also latest Sstallite looks to me it’s making that sw move ?

[Blown Away]

Boca and miles south would get blasted by heavy rain.

Yep, Nicole will have that big calm eye probably @40 miles wide

[caneman]

Really can't argue with the Euro and GFS they have been steady. Rather shocked that the NHC gave so much weight towards the other models.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Really can't argue with the Euro and GFS they have been steady. Rather shocked that the NHC gave so much weight towards the other models.

Hard to see the 2 best models in the world busting like this...

[SFLcane]

Going with a prediction 85-90mph hurricane near or over West Palm Beach.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... Landfall @Port St Lucie... Big shift SW

[jlauderdal]

Really can't argue with the Euro and GFS they have been steady. Rather shocked that the NHC gave so much weight towards the other models.

They gave a ton if weight to the tvcn, as usual.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/r6amsZo.gif
18z HWRF... Landfall @Port St Lucie... Big shift SW

Certainly appears the gfs might be on to something here.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/r6amsZo.gif
18z HWRF... Landfall @Port St Lucie... Big shift SW

Certainly appears the gfs might be on to something here.

The GFS has it in for WPB, it keeps coming back.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/r6amsZo.gif
18z HWRF... Landfall @Port St Lucie... Big shift SW

Certainly appears the gfs might be on to something here.

The GFS has it in for WPB, it keeps coming back.

I feel like that would be worse for me in Palm city than if it were to make landfall as forecast in PSL. Late night runs will be interesting. Guess I'm staying up

[toad strangler]

Certainly appears the gfs might be on to something here.

The GFS has it in for WPB, it keeps coming back.

I feel like that would be worse for me in Palm city than if it were to make landfall as forecast in PSL. Late night runs will be interesting. Guess I'm staying up

Landfall in WPB would be no bueno for Palm City and Port Saint Lucie.

[jlauderdal]

Certainly appears the gfs might be on to something here.

The GFS has it in for WPB, it keeps coming back.

I feel like that would be worse for me in Palm city than if it were to make landfall as forecast in PSL. Late night runs will be interesting. Guess I'm staying up

Did you put up the shutters?

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS has it in for WPB, it keeps coming back.

I feel like that would be worse for me in Palm city than if it were to make landfall as forecast in PSL. Late night runs will be interesting. Guess I'm staying up

Did you put up the shutters?

No, not yet. I didn’t have time this morning and it was dark when I got home tonight. I’m going to do it in the morning tomorrow if necessary.

[eastcoastFL]

[SFLcane]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17_ens.gif

Lol apparently the gfs is on crack as the 00z models now shifted even further north.

[sweetpea]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17_ens.gif

Hmm, almost all over my head on the second landfall. Not much being said about that, hope everyone stays safe on the East Coast!

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17_ens.gif

Lol apparently the gfs is on crack as the 00z models now shifted even further north.

Spaghetti plots all still way off raw data.

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17_ens.gif

Lol apparently the gfs is on crack as the 00z models now shifted even further north.

Sounds good to me, lol. I don’t know what to think anymore. We are far past the days of models being locked in with 48-72 hours to go. These home brew type storms are always so much harder to get a handle on than the long tracking types.

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17_ens.gif

Lol apparently the gfs is on crack as the 00z models now shifted even further north.

Spaghetti plots all still way off raw data.

You mean they don’t include current recon data?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lol apparently the gfs is on crack as the 00z models now shifted even further north.

Spaghetti plots all still way off raw data.

You mean they don’t include current recon data?

Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.