ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:54 pm

NOAA gulfstream jet plane flying now.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:40 pm

There was a gap from early this mornings last mission until now that the NOAA plane is on route.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:19 pm

AF plane is also on route. Who helps with the posting at recon thread?
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ATL: NICOLE - Recon update=Extrapolated 980 mbs

#24 Postby TallahasseeMan » Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:32 pm

Winds relatively weak for such a low pressure reading. Max looks to be ~58-60 kts
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:46 pm

Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 5:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.


The data supports the current 55 kt intensity, but with a lower pressure.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:43 pm

That 75kt was flagged.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#28 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.


The data supports the current 55 kt intensity, but with a lower pressure.


Relatively small eye where the updraft spirals so it didn't pull in as much dry inflow from the east today.
Outflow is probably moistening the air to the west now but earlier WXman57 mentioned humidity readings were quite low as far south as JAX.
Models are showing increasing moisture before landfall but we might get an Eyewall replacement cycle before then.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#29 Postby Pelicane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:48 pm

Dropsonde was 984 mb. It dropped 1 mb between passes.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:That 75kt was flagged.


It turned out it was not flagged.

URNT12 KBIX 090015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172022
A. 08/23:44:30Z
B. 27.24 deg N 074.25 deg W
C. 850 mb 1280 m
D. 984 mb
E. 095 deg 7 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 56 kt
I. 331 deg 16 nm 23:34:30Z
J. 068 deg 75 kt
K. 331 deg 16 nm 23:34:30Z
L. 41 kt
M. 118 deg 11 nm 23:51:30Z
N. 202 deg 48 kt
O. 121 deg 14 nm 23:52:30Z
P. 13 C / 1518 m
Q. 20 C / 1522 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 0.8 nm
U. AF306 0817A NICOLE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 331 / 16 NM 23:34:30Z
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:12 pm

The latest VDM has center closed with 72kt. Will they upgrade to hurricane at 1 PM?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:40 pm

Next 2 missions will be after 4 PM EST.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:38 pm

The two planes are flying now.
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ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#34 Postby Jr0d » Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:04 pm

Looks like the NOAA plane is now doing a SAR mission, circling around an area between WPB and Grand Bahamas
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ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#35 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:23 pm

Just watched Miss Piggy flyover me here in Panama City Beach. Could hear those engines as she was passing over at 21kft. NOAA43
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

#36 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:31 pm

Earlier this afternoon, an AF plane was going to fly into Nicole but turned back as the center never made it well in the water in NE GOM, but moving along the coastline.

Image
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