ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

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ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#1 Postby AJC3 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:48 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island,
and Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, Florida, and along the
southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.5 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast
Tuesday through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move
near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east
coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima of 6 inches, across the northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from this system is expected to impact portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States by mid to late week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better
organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east
of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification
of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward,
or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days,
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast
intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows
the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week.

2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:54 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
800 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:59 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Georgia
and east coast of Florida from Altamaha Sound southward to
Hallandale Beach.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound, Georgia
southward to Volusia/Brevard County Line and south of Hallandale
Beach to north of Ocean Reef.


Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical,
as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated
upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest
winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial
intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is
supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from
TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the
NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range.

Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning,
with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is expected through the day, though there might be some
wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level
circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low.
After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to
amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole
and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position
itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is
expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it
moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs
is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad
mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the
Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to
recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast,
though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this
adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA).

Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear
environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm
sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to
contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification
expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this
cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane
in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS
guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and
the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern
Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust
reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much
of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida
beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions
of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of
the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected
to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida
peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with
river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.2N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:48 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
200 PM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...LARGE NICOLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 70.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended southward along the St.
Johns River south to East Palatka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef



Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Nicole's structure has changed little today. There is some limited
convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and
thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern
Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
been investigating the system this afternoon and has found
flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about
80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band
well removed from the center. The aircraft reported that the
pressure is down to around 1000 mb. The initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and
earlier satellite wind data.

Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt. A northwestward
motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around
the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday,
Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a
strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States.
This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is
forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn
west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves
over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is
expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the
forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track
forecast is relatively high. The new NHC track foreast is similar
to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track
slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4.
There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the
GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is
near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.

Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest
that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening.
Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should
allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and
this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in
gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole. Most of the
dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a
smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24
to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification
is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to
the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near
hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest
Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind
speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and
near the most recent dynamical hurricane models. Regardless of
Nicole's exact intensity, the storm's large size due to an enhanced
pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning has been issued.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and
Georgia beginning by early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible across much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.6N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 K /H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 71.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Hallandale Beach
Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.



Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Satellite images continue to show the signature of a subtropical
cyclone, with limited deep convective activity near the center and a
large band of convection extending well to the east and southeast.
A subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, along with
observations from NOAA data buoy 41047 indicate little change in
strength, and the current intensity estimate remains at 40 kt. The
system remains very broad, with the strongest winds well removed
from the center.

Nicole is moving slowly northwestward, or about 310/7 kt, on the
northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, and this general
motion is likely to continue into Tuesday morning. The system
should turn toward the west and west-southwest beginning tomorrow
as an eastward-moving high pressure area builds to its north, and
move over the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Then, the cyclone is
likely to move around the western periphery of the ridge near
northern Florida and accelerate northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the east-central United States
around day 4. Nicole should continue to accelerate northeastward
near the northeastern United States coast around the end of the
forecast period. The official track forecast is very close to the
simple dynamical model consensus, TVCA, and is also similar to the
previous NHC track.

There is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity
forecast. Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry
mid-level air suggest that it will take some time for the cyclone to
begin strengthening. It is expected, however, that the system will
at least begin to acquire an inner core structure within 24 hours
and be near or at hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the
northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. The official
intensity forecast remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus
guidance and is a little above the GFS and ECMWF global model
wind speed predictions. Regardless of Nicole's exact intensity,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the cyclone will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during the
next few days.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia
beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge
warning is now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should
listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.0N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 27.4N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 27.2N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 09/1200Z 26.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 26.8N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 28.9N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 33.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 41.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:58 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE FORECAST TO MAKE A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM AND
BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 71.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River.




Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole appears to be beginning its transition to a tropical storm,
with the low-level center now embedded beneath a relatively small
but persistent burst of deep convection. The system still has a
broad cloud and wind field, however, with bands of convection
extending over 500 n mi to the east of the center, and gale-force
winds expanding significantly over the northwestern quadrant. The
initial intensity remains 40 kt based on ship and scatterometer
observations during the past several hours, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft which measured a peak 925-mb flight-level
wind of 52 kt. Nicole's center is just north of NOAA buoy 41047,
and that platform indicates that the minimum pressure has fallen to
995 mb.

The NOAA buoy and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Nicole's center
has taken a northward jog since the previous advisory, and the
initial motion remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. However, a ridge
axis to the north should cause Nicole to turn westward and then
west-southwestward today and tonight, followed by a recurvature
around the western side of an eastward-moving area of high pressure
Wednesday through Friday. Because of the recent short-term motion
which deviated from the previous forecast track, the track guidance
has shifted northward a bit during the next 2-3 days. As a result,
the NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward and is
closest to the GFS, ECWMF, and HCCA solutions, and just a bit south
of the TVCA multi-model consensus.

With Nicole's structure beginning to take on more tropical
characteristics, strengthening is likely to commence later today.
Warm 27-28 degree Celsius waters and a more diffluence upper-level
environment are expected to aid this intensification, and the NHC
intensity forecast continues to show Nicole near or at hurricane
strength as it's moving near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaching the east coast of Florida. This forecast is just above
the highest intensity guidance, with the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA
aids showing an intensity of 60-65 kt at 48 hours. Weakening is
expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and accelerates
northeastward over the southeastern United States, although the
system could still produce tropical-storm-force winds over the
adjacent offshore waters. Nicole should be extratropical by day 4
over the Mid-Atlantic U.S., and most of the global models show the
circulation dissipating by day 5, with a separate extratropical low
forming over northern New England or Quebec.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in
Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge
warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should
listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
rises on portions of the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 27.6N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.9N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 29.0N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 30.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 38.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:55 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Boca Raton to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.


Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported
that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found
700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of
40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to
45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm
westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest
Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to
northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern
United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Although there is
good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the
west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida. The
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for
steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast calls for
Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas
and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus
aids. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida
and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United
States. Although the system could still produce
tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters.
Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the
global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with
possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES




Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the central convection associated
with Nicole has become better organized this afternoon, with a
curved convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way
around the center. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds
near 45 kt about 60 n mi northwest of the center, and a just
received microwave overpass shows an additional increase in
organization. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 55 kt. Water vapor and air mass imagery shows a large
area of mid- to upper-level dry air over the southern semicircle of
the circulation, and some of this may be entraining into the core at
this time.

Nicole is continuing its anticipated turn with the initial motion
now 260/9. A strong deep-layer ridge over the eastern United
States should steer the storm west-southwestward during the next
24-30 h, with this motion bringing the center near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn westward to
west-northwestward as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
There is some spread in the guidance as to how much of a turn will
occur, with the ECMWF and GFS showing a more westward motion, while
the HWRF and HMON show a more northwestward motion. This part of
the forecast track is along the south edge of the guidance and
agreement with the ECMWF and UKMET. After landfall in Florida,
Nicole should turn generally northwestward, with the center
forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of
Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the
north and northeast through the eastern United States as the cyclone
recurves on the east side of a large baroclinic trough moving
through the central United States. This part of the forecast track
is closer to the various consensus models, and overall the new
forecast track is a little south of the previous track through 60 h
and a little west of the previous track after that time.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions, while not ideal due to a nearby
upper-level trough, are expected to allow some strengthening before
the cyclone reaches Florida. The new intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast and calls for Nicole to become a hurricane when it
is near the northwest Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches
Florida. This part of the intensity forecast is at the high end of
the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves
inland over Florida and while it accelerates northeastward over the
southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected
to start between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with the storm
likely to maintain gale-force winds after transition. The cyclone
is expected to dissipate as it merges with another mid-latitude low
pressure area by 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.5N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.6N 82.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 34.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 45.0N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:02 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor
imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity
is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment,
significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.1N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:02 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AND PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Nicole's satellite presentation has not changed since last evening.
The associated convection is fairly fragmented, and cloud-top
temperatures are not particularly cold compared to a typical
tropical cyclone (they're only as cold as -50 degrees Celsius near
the center). The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on data
from last evening's reconnaissance mission.

Aircraft fixes and radar data from the Bahamas indicate that Nicole
has continued to move west-southwestward (250/11 kt), even a little
south of the previous NHC track prediction. However, track model
guidance indicates that Nicole should turn westward soon, and its
center is forecast to move across the Abacos and Grand Bahama
Island later today and approach the southeast or east-central coast
of Florida tonight. After 24 hours, high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. is expected to slide eastward over the Atlantic,
and that will cause Nicole to recurve around its western flank,
moving across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
and then across the southeastern U.S. Nicole is then expected to
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states in 60-72
hours ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and cold front.
Due to Nicole's recent short-term motion, the NHC official forecast
has been nudged southward and westward during the first 48 hours
and lies fairly close to the ECMWF and TVCA multi-model consensus.
It's worth noting that a few models, including the GFS, HWRF, and
HCCA, are a little west of the official forecast over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle.

Nicole will continue to move over warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius
today, although the cyclone will likely also be contending with some
shear and a dry and not particularly unstable environment.
Therefore, only slight additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Nicole could still become a hurricane later today while it moves
across the northwestern Bahamas and reaches the east coast of
Florida. Weakening is expected once the center moves over Florida,
and Nicole is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength by 60
hours once it's over Georgia or South Carolina. Nicole is expected
to merge with a cold front and become extratropical over the
Mid-Atlantic by day 3, although most global models indicate that
feature will dissipate soon thereafter, with a secondary
extratropical low developing farther north over New England or
eastern Canada.

Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that Nicole's
tropical-storm-force wind field continues to expand on its northern
side, and that has been reflected in the new forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 26.6N 75.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 26.6N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.1N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 28.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 30.7N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z 34.1N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 38.7N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:08 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MOVING TOWARD GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:30 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES





Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Convection has increased in both coverage and organization near the
center of Nicole, with a curved band or partial eyewall now
present near the center. However, this has not yet resulted in any
intensification, with reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicating the maximum winds are near
60 kt and the central pressure near 986 mb.

The aircraft and satellite data, along with radar data from the
Bahamas show that Nicole is now moving westward with an initial
motion of 265/10. This motion should bring the center across the
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas during the next
several hours. Subsequently, a westward to west-northwestward
motion should bring the center to the southeast or east-central
coast of Florida tonight. After landfall in Florida, a low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide
eastward over the Atlantic, with Nicole turning northwestward and
northward across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S. Finally, a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Nicole to
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The new
track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and generally
follows the more southerly and westerly GFS/ECMWF solutions.

While Nicole is over warm sea surface temperatures, a combination
of shear of dry air entrainment is likely to allow only gradual
intensification. However, that gradual intensification should
allow Nicole to become a hurricane later today while crossing the
northwestern Bahamas. Weakening is expected once the center moves
over Florida, and even if the center emerges for a time over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico re-intensification is not expected.
The new intensity forecast calls for Nicole to weaken to a
depression over land by 48 h, and then become extratropical by 60 h
as it merges with a frontal system. The global models are in good
agreement that Nicole should dissipate inside the frontal system by
72 h as another low forms to the north.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 26.5N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 27.6N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 29.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 32.4N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:38 pm

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of
70 mph (110 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it. Data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE PASSES OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES



Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The satellite presentation of Nicole has not changed much since
late this morning. Curved bands of convection wrap around much of
the circulation and there has been a ragged eyewall in radar data
from both the Bahamas and Miami. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 985 mb and
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt during its final pass
through the center and northwestern portion of the storm as Nicole
made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas just
prior to 1700 UTC. Those aircraft data still supported an
intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Recent center fixes show that Nicole is moving westward or 270
degrees at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the north of the
cyclone is expected to shift eastward causing Nicole to turn
west-northwestward to northwestward tonight. This motion
should bring the center onshore the coast of southeastern or
east-central Florida overnight, and across the Florida peninsula
Thursday morning. As Nicole passes over north Florida late
Thursday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United
States is expected to turn the cyclone or its remnants northward
and then northeastward across inland portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement during
the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in spread during the
recurvature portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours,
but is slightly west thereafter to be close to the latest consensus
aids.

Nicole still has about 12 hours in which to strengthen. Given the
slightly improved inner core structure and the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream that Nicole will be traversing, the forecast still
calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status before reaching the
east coast of Florida. After landfall, weakening should occur as
the center cross the Florida peninsula. Even if the center briefly
emerges over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
re-intensification is not expected. Nicole is forecast to weaken
further over the southeastern United Sates, and then dissipate along
a frontal zone moving into the eastern United States by 60 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas through this evening, where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along
the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or
tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.5N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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