ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:59 pm

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Corrected header

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE CONTINUES BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 78.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES



Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the
center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast.
Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt. Dvorak satellite
classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because
the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at
this time. Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a
very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern
semicircle.

Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward
heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt. The system
should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or
so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone,
moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida. In 36 to
48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east
of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast
is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the
multi-model consensus prediction.

The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making
landfall in Florida. Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over
Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the
extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in
any significant re-intensification. The system should weaken to a
depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern
United States. Nicole should merge with another extratropical low
over the eastern United States after 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along
the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the
warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.0N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 32.6N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:19 am

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH
OF VERO BEACH...

Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole
has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on
North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h), and the
minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches).

This will be the last hourly update given the degraded radar
structure of Nicole.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 80.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE NOW A TROPICAL STORM, CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 80.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Nicole's center made landfall around 3 AM EST (0800 UTC) in the
vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida. Now that the center is inland over
Florida, it is assumed that weakening has begun, and Nicole is being
designated as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. Mid-level
high pressure is sliding eastward off the North Carolina/Virginia
coast, with a large deep-layer trough moving eastward from the
Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to cause Nicole to turn
northwestward later today and then accelerate toward the
north-northeast over the southeastern U.S. on Friday. There has
been no appreciable change in the track guidance on this cycle, and
the new NHC track forecast essentially lies on top of the previous
prediction.

Weakening is expected to continue while Nicole's center moves
across central Florida during the morning hours. Although the
center may emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico
early this afternoon, it won't be over water long enough to aid in
any re-intensification. Continued weakening is forecast tonight
and on Friday while Nicole moves across the southeastern United
States. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the
solutions from Decay-SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State
Superensemble. Nicole is forecast to merge with another
extratropical system over the Mid-Atlantic states by 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 27.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
24H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:15 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 81.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES





Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole is currently over west central Florida to the
northeast of Tampa. While the cyclone remains well organized in
satellite imagery, surface observation and Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to near 45 kt, and
that the central pressure has risen to near 985 mb.

The initial motion is 295/14 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole is moving eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude
trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the
west. This evolution should cause Nicole to turn northwestward
today, with the center moving just offshore of the coast of the
Florida Big Bend. The storm should turn northward tonight and move
over the southeastern United States. On Friday, Nicole or its
remnants should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of
the trough. The new forecast track is similar to, but just a little
west of the previous track, and it lies close to the various
consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected this morning while the center
remains over land. While the center is forecast to briefly emerge
over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not expected to be
over water long enough for significant re-intensification. After
landfall in the Florida Panhandle, Nicole should weaken to a
depression by 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone will become
post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather
system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the
St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central
Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending
northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into
western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 29.9N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/1200Z 32.9N 83.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Correct directions from Tallahassee and Tampa in the summary table

...CENTER OF NICOLE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION...
...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES




Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa
around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend
region northwest of Cedar Key. An earlier scatterometer overpass
showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of
Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of
40 kt. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has
risen to near 990 mb. In addition to weakening, the 34-kt
wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly
in the northeastern quadrant. This has resulted in significant
changes to the warnings with this advisory.

The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to
persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are
approaching from the west. This evolution should cause the storm to
turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion
toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected until the center moves
farther inland tonight. When that happens, Nicole should weaken to
a depression over Georgia. On Friday and Friday night, the system
is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to
the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.

2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the
northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the
Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST
12H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 34.9N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 83.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES






Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate
that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the
Florida/Georgia border. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure
has risen to 992 mb. Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a
significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt. The
cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge. During
the next day or so, the system should accelerate
north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large
trough until it dissipates.

Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther
inland during the next day or so. By Friday night, the system is
expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St.
Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains,
and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central
Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 33.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 37.0N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:45 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES





Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NWS radar data and surface observations indicate the center of
Nicole is located over southwestern Georgia this morning. The
heaviest precipitation is occurring within outer rainbands that are
displaced well away from the center over portions of Georgia, South
Carolina, and northern Florida. The strongest sustained winds
appear to be occurring over the southeastern U.S. offshore waters,
where NOAA buoy 41004 southeast of Charleston has been reporting
peak 1-minute winds between 25-30 kt. Scatterometer data received
just after the previous advisory showed a broad area of 25-kt wind
vectors over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well. Based on these
data, Nicole remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

Nicole has begun turning more northward during the past few hours,
and its initial motion is now north-northwestward at 335/14 kt. The
system is expected to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
today within the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from
the west. This motion should bring the center of Nicole across
central and northern Georgia this morning and toward western
portions of the Carolinas later today. Nicole is forecast to lose
its warm core structure and become a post-tropical cyclone later
today, then dissipate by 24 h as it becomes absorbed by a large
frontal system moving across the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible
today across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by tonight into
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 31.9N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 34.9N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 84.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole's winds
are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash
flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today.
There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the
northeast of Nicole's center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.

The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now
appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast.
The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined
and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to
accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight.

Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm
surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by
the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction
Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as
Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on
Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole Advisory Number 19
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL172022
400 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...
...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/DELMARVA EARLY THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Tornado Watch 569 is in effect until 6 pm EST for northeast North
Carolina, eastern Virginia and adjacent Coastal Waters.

Flood Watches are in effect through late tonight along the spine of
the Appalachian Mountains from extreme northeast Georgia and
northwest South Carolina to western North Carolina and southwest
Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole
was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 47 mph (76
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. As the system has quickly transitioned to an extratropical
cyclone... and will orbit around the periphery of a deepening low
over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada... gusty surface winds
and pressure falls will persist across the Northeast into this
weekend. However, the risk of excessive rainfall and localized
flash flooding with this extratropical transition will continue to
diminish through Saturday and this will be the final advisory for
Nicole.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for post-tropical cyclone Nicole can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible early this
evening across portions of southeast Virginia and Delmarva.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain across the central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England through Saturday morning.

Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River in Florida is
ongoing.

Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England, through early Saturday, limited
flooding impacts will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster G. Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 37.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/0600Z 42.5N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1800Z 46.1N 68.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#35 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:04 pm

Hey Luis, thanks for all the info you post! 8-)
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:50 pm

Blown Away wrote:Hey Luis, thanks for all the info you post! 8-)


Thank you.
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