WPAC: INVEST 90W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:13 pm

Well here it is, let's see if it does something
90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 221123 0000 7.8N 167.3E WPAC 15 0

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:26 pm

EPS 18Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:37 am

GFS on and off with this system but they're back to showing a strong TS and typhoon which slams close to Davao City. CMC having a Rai repeat but weaker
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:27 am

The models have consensus of a strong ridge to the north that will move it west.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:23 am

cycloneye wrote:The models have consensus of a strong ridge to the north that will move it west.

Yeah, has high potential because of this. We'll see.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:58 am

12z Best Track:

WP, 90, 2022112312, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1624E, 15, 1010, DB
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:15 pm

Euro ensembles are bullish.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:20 am

Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:24 am

cycloneye wrote:Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/MpvPNpM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/y3buBQm.png

this track...
Reminds me of something specific that happened in 2012... :double:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:52 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/MpvPNpM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/y3buBQm.png

this track...
Reminds me of something specific that happened in 2012... :double:

Bopha became a TS at 155.9E, while 90W is located as of 12Z at 157.0E.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:00 pm

12z GFS with SuperTyphoon to Vietnam.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:15 pm

In the early stage to begin the organization proccess.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:In the early stage to begin the organization proccess.

https://i.imgur.com/X5dfbzS.gif

Is it possible that we'll see something significant come of this, maybe something around 115 - 145 mph in the future?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:38 pm

Ensembles are quite bullish on a Mindanao landfall. Can't say the same for the model runs themselves. GFS and CMC seem to barely develop this until reaching the WPS/SCS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:31 am

Operational models maybe underestimating this given what the ensembles say. Like Noru GFS in the long range was hyping it as an intense storm only to back off as it neared formation, and this one is more far away from landfall...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 2:53 am

EPS 00z, I count only two TS members just before landfall, still we must watch for an unexpected RI.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:28 am

Reminds me a bit of Tembin in 2017. Models were bullish on a Philippine landfall but later on backed off. I don't know what's holding this back but I don't see enough consistency. At the same time, models have notoriously underestimated Rai and Noru. Seeing probably a tropical storm for now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:25 am

Looks better but the low is to the NE of convection. 12z GFS has no development.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:35 pm

The projected track on ensembles are so south, it's entering Kate territory (passed way south of Palau)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:20 pm

18Z GFS(v16 presumably) is back to development...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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