ARB: Deep Depression (SEVEN 07A)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Subtrop
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 445
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:45 pm

ARB: Deep Depression (SEVEN 07A)

#1 Postby Subtrop » Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:33 pm

97A INVEST 221213 0000 12.3N 73.0E IO 15 0
Last edited by Subtrop on Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:51 am

97A INVEST 221213 0600 12.5N 72.5E IO 20 1007

The remnants of TC Mandous emerged from Southern India. It actually looks pretty good right now (maybe even better than it did in the BoB), exhibiting a well-defined LLCC and banding features. Models show it may briefly reach tropical storm intensity within the next couple of days before weakening.

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#3 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:35 am

Looks like it's already a TD, to me. Would not be renamed Mandous, as IMD gives a new name for cross-overs.
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:54 pm

This thing already has an inner core structure, and JTWC and IMD are basically ignoring it (still a disturbance by them).
I had a feeling this was going to ramp up quickly after seeing how organized it looked yesterday.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#5 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:42 pm

Image
Image
45 - 55 kts. Wake up JTWC!
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#6 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:57 am

Any recent ASCAT pass over 97A?
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ARB: INVEST 97A

#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:53 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Any recent ASCAT pass over 97A?


No recent pass overhead. IMD says it's only a depression (up to 27 kt winds). Not even a "deep depression" (28-33kt winds). Not sure what they're looking at. Appears to be a TC, to me. Dvorak up to 3.0 for this weak depression.
1 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: ARB: Depression (INVEST 97A)

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:36 pm

Image
Image
WDIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.6N 68.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 678 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAGGEDLY
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 141656Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
SCATTEROMETERY AND IS CORROBORATED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T3.0.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07A IS TRACKING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STR TO
THE NORTH. IT RAPIDLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LIKELY
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO THIS FIRST WARNING.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME, CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
SUPPORTING THE RAGGED FLARING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TOGETHER
WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR. AS SUCH, TC 07A IS EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED. WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OVER WATER
SHOULD OCCUR BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. ALL INTENSITY MODELS PROJECT A MAINTENANCE OF
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA, SO THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: ARB: Depression (SEVEN 07A)

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:14 am

JTWC made some major changes to the working best track. 07A is now analyzed to have reached TS intensity on 12/13 18Z, and peaked at 50kts on 12/14 00Z-06Z (when MW showed an inner core structure).
07A SEVEN 221215 1200 14.1N 66.5E IO 40 999
07A SEVEN 221215 0600 13.9N 67.2E IO 45 1001
07A SEVEN 221215 0000 13.6N 67.9E IO 45 1000
07A SEVEN 221214 1800 13.5N 68.5E IO 45 1001
07A SEVEN 221214 1200 13.5N 69.2E IO 45 999
07A SEVEN 221214 0600 13.4N 69.9E IO 50 999
07A SEVEN 221214 0000 13.2N 70.5E IO 50 994
07A SEVEN 221213 1800 12.9N 71.3E IO 35 1003
07A SEVEN 221213 1200 12.6N 71.8E IO 20 1007
07A SEVEN 221213 0600 12.5N 72.5E IO 20 1007
07A SEVEN 221213 0000 12.5N 73.3E IO 15 1010
07A SEVEN 221212 1800 12.3N 74.0E IO 15 1010
07A SEVEN 221212 1200 12.3N 75.1E IO 15 1010
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ARB: Depression (SEVEN 07A)

#10 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:27 am

Officially, IMD says it's a "deep depression", meaning they say it has winds of 28-33 kts. Scatterometer data had a number of 40kt vectors. I guess they don't look at that.
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests