WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 127.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 694 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS, TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED FROM 55 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATED AND AXISYMMETERIZED. A 230916Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE
THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MUCH LARGER UPPER-LEVEL EYE IN
THE 91GHZ BAND. THE LAST SIX HOURS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE FILLED IN BRIEFLY
AS CONVECTION WANED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
CIRCULATION, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO
CLEAR OUT ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AGENCY FIX
POSITIONS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 AND T5.0, THE AIDT ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ADT
VALUES ARE SHOOTING UPWARD BEYOND T5.4 (99 KNOTS) BY 231300Z,
LIKELY A LEADING INDICATOR OF THINGS TO COME. THE WIND RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED LARGER BASED ON A 230906Z SMAP PASS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) DEPICT AN
EXTREMELY POWERFUL WARM CORE, WITH A DIVERGENT CYCLONIC ROTATION
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO 100MB PROVIDING AN USUAL BUT EXTREMELY
EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW EXTENDS TO ABOUT 23N LATITUDE AND
IS ABOUT TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN KYUSHU. ONCE
THIS LINK UP OCCURS, EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST. SHEAR REMAINS
NONEXISTENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC
WATERS. THE STAGE IS SET FOR NEAR-TERM RI.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 231130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE LATEST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST,
AND MAY BE SUGGESTIVE OF THE LONG AWAITED TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST, BUT THE 1200Z SOUNDINGS AT ISHIGAKIJIMA, AND KAGOSHIMA
SHOW STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVELS, WHILE
SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH KOREA SHOW SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT, INDICATING
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM KYUSHU THROUGH
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
PERSIST IN BREAKING THE RIDGE NORTH OF TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS, WHICH WILL INDUCE TY 05W NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 72, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION AND REORIENT, TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
CENTERED NEAR TOKYO WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO PUSH FURTHER
POLEWARD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 12, TURNING GRADUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST BY TAU 36,
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON BY TAU 48, MOVING
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 96, AND THEN LANDFALL IN EASTERN
CHINA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WELL GRAB THE
POPCORN FOLKS, THE DOKSURI SHOW IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ONCE
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A CUTOFF LOW TO THE NORTH IS ESTABLISHED.
ONCE THIS CHANNEL CONNECTS TO THE UPPER LOW, AND TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RI,
INCREASING FROM 80 KNOTS TO AT LEAST 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A FASTER
PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE TRENDS SEEN IN JUST THE PAST TWO HOURS SINCE
THE SYNOPTIC HOUR. AFTER REACHING THE PEAK, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO DECREASED
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF
TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP AND
CONGEAL AROUND A LUZON STRAIT, SOUTHWEST TAIWAN SCENARIO, WITH
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 DECREASING TO 185NM BETWEEN THE NAVGEM
ON THE LEFT AND GFS ON THE RIGHT. OF NOTE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
TRACKER HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND WHILE REMAINING
THE EASTERNMOST TRACKER, IS NOT THAT MUCH OF AN OUTLIER ANY LONGER.
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER HAS ALSO MOVED A BIT TO THE EAST
AND THE NOW LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, THE
SUPER-ENSEMBLE (ECENS, CMC, GEFS, MOGREPS) MEAN HAS ALSO CONVERGED
ONTO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MEAN, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEIR
MEANS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO,
THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE TIMING
OF THE PEAK. THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RI
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 85 PERCENT, AS DO THE RIPA, RIDE, FRIA AND
DTOP RI AIDS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL RI SCENARIO.
THE JTWC FORECAST PEAKS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
RIDE MODEL WHICH GOES TO 135 KNOTS, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS CLOSER TO TAIWAN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 127.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 694 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS, TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED FROM 55 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATED AND AXISYMMETERIZED. A 230916Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE
THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MUCH LARGER UPPER-LEVEL EYE IN
THE 91GHZ BAND. THE LAST SIX HOURS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE FILLED IN BRIEFLY
AS CONVECTION WANED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
CIRCULATION, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO
CLEAR OUT ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AGENCY FIX
POSITIONS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 AND T5.0, THE AIDT ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ADT
VALUES ARE SHOOTING UPWARD BEYOND T5.4 (99 KNOTS) BY 231300Z,
LIKELY A LEADING INDICATOR OF THINGS TO COME. THE WIND RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED LARGER BASED ON A 230906Z SMAP PASS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) DEPICT AN
EXTREMELY POWERFUL WARM CORE, WITH A DIVERGENT CYCLONIC ROTATION
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO 100MB PROVIDING AN USUAL BUT EXTREMELY
EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW EXTENDS TO ABOUT 23N LATITUDE AND
IS ABOUT TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN KYUSHU. ONCE
THIS LINK UP OCCURS, EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST. SHEAR REMAINS
NONEXISTENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC
WATERS. THE STAGE IS SET FOR NEAR-TERM RI.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 231130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE LATEST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST,
AND MAY BE SUGGESTIVE OF THE LONG AWAITED TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST, BUT THE 1200Z SOUNDINGS AT ISHIGAKIJIMA, AND KAGOSHIMA
SHOW STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVELS, WHILE
SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH KOREA SHOW SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT, INDICATING
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM KYUSHU THROUGH
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
PERSIST IN BREAKING THE RIDGE NORTH OF TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS, WHICH WILL INDUCE TY 05W NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 72, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION AND REORIENT, TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
CENTERED NEAR TOKYO WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO PUSH FURTHER
POLEWARD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 12, TURNING GRADUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST BY TAU 36,
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON BY TAU 48, MOVING
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 96, AND THEN LANDFALL IN EASTERN
CHINA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WELL GRAB THE
POPCORN FOLKS, THE DOKSURI SHOW IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ONCE
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A CUTOFF LOW TO THE NORTH IS ESTABLISHED.
ONCE THIS CHANNEL CONNECTS TO THE UPPER LOW, AND TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RI,
INCREASING FROM 80 KNOTS TO AT LEAST 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A FASTER
PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE TRENDS SEEN IN JUST THE PAST TWO HOURS SINCE
THE SYNOPTIC HOUR. AFTER REACHING THE PEAK, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO DECREASED
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF
TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP AND
CONGEAL AROUND A LUZON STRAIT, SOUTHWEST TAIWAN SCENARIO, WITH
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 DECREASING TO 185NM BETWEEN THE NAVGEM
ON THE LEFT AND GFS ON THE RIGHT. OF NOTE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
TRACKER HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND WHILE REMAINING
THE EASTERNMOST TRACKER, IS NOT THAT MUCH OF AN OUTLIER ANY LONGER.
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER HAS ALSO MOVED A BIT TO THE EAST
AND THE NOW LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, THE
SUPER-ENSEMBLE (ECENS, CMC, GEFS, MOGREPS) MEAN HAS ALSO CONVERGED
ONTO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MEAN, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEIR
MEANS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO,
THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE TIMING
OF THE PEAK. THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RI
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 85 PERCENT, AS DO THE RIPA, RIDE, FRIA AND
DTOP RI AIDS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL RI SCENARIO.
THE JTWC FORECAST PEAKS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
RIDE MODEL WHICH GOES TO 135 KNOTS, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS CLOSER TO TAIWAN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
