ATL: LEE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#101 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:00 pm

18Z GFS is coming in weaker than the 12Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#102 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:15 pm



JMA shows a much deeper ridge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#103 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:16 pm

Not sure I buy the GFS and its weaker solution compared to other models. Of course the GFS might be right but I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#104 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:26 pm

Image

GFS is showing more ridging with each run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#105 Postby Coolcruiseman » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:33 pm

Interesting potentialities with each run. However being more than 10 days out annd until we have a center formed …
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#106 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:35 pm

18Z GFS showing a stall north of the Caribbean near the Bahamas just like the 12Z Euro showed.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#107 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:35 pm

Man, really hits the brakes after 200 hours... Weak steering environment. Nothing is set in stone here and lots of options are in play.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#108 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:37 pm

Euro & GFS both basically drift 95L around in 8-10 days just E of Bahamas. If 95L comes in over NE Caribbean it could end up very near CONUS. This one kinda shaping up as a classic Cape Verde that could impact many.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#109 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:38 pm

ICON hates 95L. It’s been trending weaker over the last day or two, favoring the wave behind it. So far the Euro, CMC, and even the GFS still favor 95L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#110 Postby DunedinDave » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:44 pm

I pray this doesn’t turn into another Dorian. I don’t like that slowdown near the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#111 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:49 pm

Ok, so it looks like the Carolinas may have to watch out this time?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#112 Postby blp » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:49 pm

This thing is blocked. Not good.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#113 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:51 pm

No shortwave in sight to kick this thing Northeast. Nothing coming across the midwest at all. It's just stuck off the SE coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#114 Postby blp » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:01 pm

Euro and GFS at 10 days. Long way out. They seem to deviate after 168hrs with the shortwave. Euro brings in a shortwave from Canada. GFS keeps it further north.

Image

Image
Last edited by blp on Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#115 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:04 pm

Yeah to say the 500 mb height pattern ahead is going to be difficult and complex would be an understatement, especially with no big trough to kick this thing out now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#116 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:11 pm

Image

18z GFS… Landfall NC
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#117 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tgttxhbZ/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh120-348.gif [/url]

18z GFS… Landfall NC

Obviously it's just one run, but... So much for all the OTS calls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#118 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:13 pm

Image

Model trends seem to be gradually adjusting to what the CFS was warning about last week for September overall pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#119 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:24 pm

18z GEFS: Trough probability @198hr....
Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#120 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:28 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

18z GFS… Landfall NC
Ots a few hours ago
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