ATL: LEE - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Not sure I buy the GFS and its weaker solution compared to other models. Of course the GFS might be right but I'll believe it when I see it.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
GFS is showing more ridging with each run.
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Coolcruiseman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Interesting potentialities with each run. However being more than 10 days out annd until we have a center formed …
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18Z GFS showing a stall north of the Caribbean near the Bahamas just like the 12Z Euro showed.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Man, really hits the brakes after 200 hours... Weak steering environment. Nothing is set in stone here and lots of options are in play.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Euro & GFS both basically drift 95L around in 8-10 days just E of Bahamas. If 95L comes in over NE Caribbean it could end up very near CONUS. This one kinda shaping up as a classic Cape Verde that could impact many.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
ICON hates 95L. It’s been trending weaker over the last day or two, favoring the wave behind it. So far the Euro, CMC, and even the GFS still favor 95L.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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DunedinDave
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I pray this doesn’t turn into another Dorian. I don’t like that slowdown near the Bahamas.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Ok, so it looks like the Carolinas may have to watch out this time?
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
This thing is blocked. Not good.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
No shortwave in sight to kick this thing Northeast. Nothing coming across the midwest at all. It's just stuck off the SE coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Euro and GFS at 10 days. Long way out. They seem to deviate after 168hrs with the shortwave. Euro brings in a shortwave from Canada. GFS keeps it further north.
Last edited by blp on Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stratton23
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Yeah to say the 500 mb height pattern ahead is going to be difficult and complex would be an understatement, especially with no big trough to kick this thing out now
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z GFS… Landfall NC
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tgttxhbZ/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh120-348.gif [/url]
18z GFS… Landfall NC
Obviously it's just one run, but... So much for all the OTS calls.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Model trends seem to be gradually adjusting to what the CFS was warning about last week for September overall pattern.
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Spacecoast
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Ots a few hours agoBlown Away wrote:
18z GFS… Landfall NC
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