ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ianswfl]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_10L/web/last24hrs.gif

She’s definitely putting things together

Seems more south and east than it's supposed to be! I wouldn't be shocked at a tampa bay area landfall from this.

[Fancy1002]

I just hope nothing goes wrong with the recon planes instruments.

[Bocadude85]

Don’t think the SE shifts are done, she still appears to be drifting southeast.. if I was in Tampa I’d be ready for a major.. I’m thinking this may be the end to Tampa’s lucky streak.. just don’t see this going into the big bend, either she fails to significantly develop and goes into the bend as a tropical storm or Tampa Bay and south is in for a major.. just my two cents of course.

[Keldeo1997]

WHAT????

[tropicwatch]

HH is in the air, yay!

[FLLurker32]

Don’t think the SE shifts are done, she still appears to be drifting southeast.. if I was in Tampa I’d be ready for a major.. I’m thinking this may be the end to Tampa’s lucky streak.. just don’t see this going into the big bend, either she fails to significantly develop and goes into the bend as a tropical storm or Tampa Bay and south is in for a major.. just my two cents of course.

What model supports the idea that a Big Bend landfall = tropical storm?

[Fancy1002]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145550230352318505/image.png

WHAT????

That’s a………… yeah.

[Hurrilurker]

So let's say that the storm does drift more S/E before turning north. One can assume that would lead to a more S landfall along Florida's west coast. But what does it mean for intensity? For one, it would have to traverse a larger cross-section of land over Cuba. For another, what does a more eastern and/or slower pace mean for SSTs and shear?

[Fancy1002]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145550230352318505/image.png

WHAT????

I can’t tell if that’s an eye, or if that’s half of an eye being built.

[eastcoastFL]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_10L/web/last24hrs.gif

She’s definitely putting things together

Seems more south and east than it's supposed to be! I wouldn't be shocked at a tampa bay area landfall from this.

It’s a tough one to forecast. If it meanders longer than expected before the trough picks it up there’s a chance it ends up more south and east.

[IcyTundra]

Don’t think the SE shifts are done, she still appears to be drifting southeast.. if I was in Tampa I’d be ready for a major.. I’m thinking this may be the end to Tampa’s lucky streak.. just don’t see this going into the big bend, either she fails to significantly develop and goes into the bend as a tropical storm or Tampa Bay and south is in for a major.. just my two cents of course.

Idk about that I think it is going to have a very good chance of being a major hurricane wherever it hits if anything it could be stronger if it hits the Big Bend because it will have more time over water. Biggest takeaway is that both areas should be preparing for a major hurricanel landfall.

[FLLurker32]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145550230352318505/image.png

WHAT????

Look at it, almost all grown up. Jokes aside, that’s a concerning image.

[Bocadude85]

Don’t think the SE shifts are done, she still appears to be drifting southeast.. if I was in Tampa I’d be ready for a major.. I’m thinking this may be the end to Tampa’s lucky streak.. just don’t see this going into the big bend, either she fails to significantly develop and goes into the bend as a tropical storm or Tampa Bay and south is in for a major.. just my two cents of course.

What model supports the idea that a Big Bend landfall = tropical storm?

No model, just going of Florida hurricane history in that area, I could be way off.

[eastcoastFL]

So let's say that the storm does drift more S/E before turning north. One can assume that would lead to a more S landfall along Florida's west coast. But what does it mean for intensity? For one, it would have to traverse a larger cross-section of land over Cuba. For another, what does a more eastern and/or slower pace mean for SSTs and shear?

I’d guess it would be weaker at landfall not so much because of Cuba but having less time over water. Big bend landfalls gives the Storm optimal time over warm shallow water, I would think…in my amateur opinion.

[Hurricane2022]

Now at 50 kt and is forecasted to reach 95 kt!!

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 90SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


NNNN

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145550230352318505/image.png

WHAT????

What radar site is that from?

[Keldeo1997]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145550230352318505/image.png

WHAT????

What radar site is that from?

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/GUI/vi ... n/ppi_refl

[wx98]

They're effectively now forecasting a Cat 3 near landfall by upping it to 110 mph just offshore.

[Coolcruiseman]

Looks like it sucked out about all the juice from the Yucatan.
Needs to start sucking juice out of the water.
Judging from the wind speed recorded at the buoy, it just may be able to do that.
The longer it sits here the more juice it gets.
Remember this is not a stagnant body of hot water.
There is a strong current and a nearly limitless supply of energy.
Wilma RI'd and went to Cat 5 here.

That is definitely not a good scenario. Especially if it’s possible no matter where on the west coast it landfalls.

[tolakram]

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280257
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg