ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SecondBreakfast]

So, I remember being very uncomfortable last year with Fiona being a Cat 4 so far north… what do we think about this intensity if/when Lee gains some latitude? I saw a tweet about expanding wind fields as a powerful hurricane loses intensity, and remembering that this affected Sandy’s surge as she underwent ETT… I’m worried.

Guess my weekend plans will be hurricane prep and talking my head off about this storm.

[weeniepatrol]

I have a feeling this will be a big-ass monster when it gets close to the coast

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

Previous NHC discussion already showed a doubling of the 50-kt wind field in all quadrants by the 10th

[Iceresistance]

Rain rate of nearly 80 mm/hr at NW eyewall

[Hurricane2022]

012530 1716N 05214W 6967 02823 //// +073 //// 049141 145 128 078 01
012600 1715N 05213W 6922 02795 //// +094 //// 051133 144 152 055 01
012630 1714N 05212W 7146 02440 //// +127 //// 053102 119 157 035 01

[ElectricStorm]

Holy cow 155kt+ SFMR

[GCANE]

I don't think recon will see a secondary wind speed max inbound since the outer towers are on the south and west.
May see some slight bump outbound though.

[dukeblue219]

Holy cow 155kt+ SFMR

Yeah I don't know about this one. I can buy 140 but 155 without flight level winds supportive? We shall see...

[eastcoastFL]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

The data shows the odds of an impending EWRC are increasing. I haven’t heard anyone say they’ve spotted one though.

The eye has shrunken on IR, it is usually a sign, but it hasn't gotten any smaller rapidly or any indication for an outer eyewall on satellite or MW passes.
Recon may make another pass soon; they are the concrete truth to confirm if there is an outer eyewall or not (double wind maxima)

I’m just talking about this

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... leERC.html

[CrazyC83]

Based on all that data, I would go with 145 kt for the intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

Holy cow 155kt+ SFMR

Yeah I don't know about this one. I can buy 140 but 155 without flight level winds supportive? We shall see...

Yeah I'd probably go 140-145 but it definitely appears to be a Cat 5 now

[GCANE]

Cat 5 SFMR

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like HAFS forecasts of 100%+ mixing from 700mb to surface are materializing.

[Teban54]

NW FL145 SFMR 157

This feels like that Ian recon pass where someone had to ask if the "160 FL" was in mph or kts.

[eastcoastFL]

Based on all that data, I would go with 145 kt for the intensity.

Insane, that’s what like 165MPH?

[CrazyC83]

Based on all that data, I would go with 145 kt for the intensity.

Insane, that’s what like 165MPH?

Yes, that would be 165 mph.

[Iceresistance]

Here is the chart

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgX8Q.png

[WalterWhite]

Flight level is supporting 130 knots, but SFMR is supporting 155 knots. Weird

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Single most impressive recon pass since Dorian. 180 mph SFMR is absolutely insane.

[aspen]

Yeah this is a 5. A shame the barometer broke, we’ll have to wait for the eye drop to see how fast this is deepening.

[GCANE]

Looks like they got a secondary wind max outbound.