ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

What especially concerns me, at least from a Tampa perspective, is unlike Ian, Idalia is currently expected to make landfall just north of the city (rather than south). That subtle difference would put Tampa in the dirty side.

[Jr0d]

I guess one bit of good news if it goes further south like it's now predicted is that looking at the new track, we only have to worry about one landfall as opposed to an east coast rider which it had looked like earlier. It will be heading out to sea after exiting Florida. So at least there is that.

There is a chance(albeit slim) that it gets left behind off the SE CONUS, then pushed back west into the east coast when high pressure fills back in. Unlikely but not impossible.

The way Idalia keeps improving, it may be a hurricane by the time recon gets there.

I am now under a TS watch in Key West. While we will like just get outer rain bands, I am doubt it will be anywhere near as impactful as Ian where Key West high end tropical storm conditions and well over 4 feet of surge on the south facing side.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

[Ianswfl]

I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.

Was on Ana Maria Island earlier today. Sea temp was 89 degrees. Not good.

20 miles offshore Venice was hitting 92 degress, YES 20, miles offshore away from land about 10 days ago. The Gulf has cooled a bit with that clouds and rain we had last week. Also getting into sept so it will cool a tad due to just the sun angel too. A month ago this thing would been hitting even hotter waters.

[LandoWill]

This is my favorite link for new people
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

NHC said they didn't change the track. but they did... you can see it change on sfwmd radar... fun to watch the eye wobbles on it later on or not so much

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind Eric Webb says that Idalia will become a large storm in coverage in the eastern GOM, so it will carry a wider storm surge with it.
4-7' foot storm surge in the Tampa Bay area is not out of the question even if landfall is still near Cedar Key.

[tropicwatch]

Something to keep in mind Eric Webb says that Idalia will become a large storm in coverage in the eastern GOM, so it will carry a wider storm surge with it.
4-7' foot storm surge in the Tampa Bay area is not out of the question even if landfall is still near Cedar Key.

I am glad I am not in the crosshairs on this one in the panhandle. Hope it brings us some rain.

[tolakram]

This is my favorite link for new people
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

NHC said they didn't change the track. but they did... you can see it change on sfwmd radar... fun to watch the eye wobbles on it later on or not so much

Track is unchanged, forecast points changed and the lines connecting them moved. Following lines is a bad idea, this is why.

[chaser1]

This is my favorite link for new people
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

NHC said they didn't change the track. but they did... you can see it change on sfwmd radar... fun to watch the eye wobbles on it later on or not so much

Of note is the increased period of northeasterly trajectory. So essentially, any delay in "lift off" out of the Caribbean may play a significant factor in the storm's eventual point of landfall.

[LandoWill]

This is my favorite link for new people
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

NHC said they didn't change the track. but they did... you can see it change on sfwmd radar... fun to watch the eye wobbles on it later on or not so much

Track is unchanged, forecast points changed and the lines connecting them moved. Following lines is a bad idea, this is why.

weird. on mine it shows "landfall" switching counties. of course we know this will change.

[Ianswfl]

This is my favorite link for new people
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

NHC said they didn't change the track. but they did... you can see it change on sfwmd radar... fun to watch the eye wobbles on it later on or not so much

Of note is the increased period of northeasterly trajectory. So essentially, any delay in "lift off" out of the Caribbean may play a significant factor in the storm's eventual point of landfall.

What's got me concerned for Tampa. And thing is we might not know until late Tue morning. It will be too late then.

[FLpanhandle91]

Some banding becoming evident within the CDO. Also pulling in moisture from the SE.

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

[emeraldislenc]

I think water temp over 86 can be a dangerous situation for strengthening hurricanes so even if it cooled off to 87 from
From 92 is still dangerous.

[Hugo1989]

What especially concerns me, at least from a Tampa perspective, is unlike Ian, Idalia is currently expected to make landfall just north of the city (rather than south). That subtle difference would put Tampa in the dirty side.

I’m in South Tampa about 5 miles from the water and Ian was not that bad we thought it could. The story with Idalia is a complete different movie making landfall north of us.

[Kingarabian]

T3.5. I would go 60kts, but likely winds arent there yet.

[CrazyC83]

It feels like just in the last 6-12 hours the narrative has changed. Instead of a Hermine-like situation, we're dealing with something that could be closer to Ian. Maybe not quite as strong, but still very dangerous.

[Fancy1002]

I think we’re about to see another burst of convection, just in time for the planes.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What especially concerns me, at least from a Tampa perspective, is unlike Ian, Idalia is currently expected to make landfall just north of the city (rather than south). That subtle difference would put Tampa in the dirty side.

I’m in South Tampa about 5 miles from the water and Ian was not that bad we thought it could. The story with Idalia is a complete different movie making landfall north of us.

That's been a thought on my mind as well. With Ian, it was always the expectation that if it had made landfall north of Tampa, it would have been weakening due to shear. Instead, it went strong and south of Tampa, lessening the impacts.

A good analog could be the 1896 Cedar Key hurricane in terms of track and intensity right now. That storm brought greater impacts to Tampa than Ian did, despite going further north.