ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dpep4]

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.

Gonna blow right by Cat 6

[cheezyWXguy]

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.

Gonna blow right by Cat 6

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/06/Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven.jpg

Someone tell that girl on Tiktok

/s

[eastcoastFL]

[SconnieCane]

Hurricane Donna 1960, when a mid level ridge axis set up just to its north, turned westward and crept along at 8 mph for almost 3 days north of the Greater Antilles. Relevant here? Not likely. But-

https://s.w-x.co/wu/donna-track.gif

Now that...is a track for the ages. Northern Leewards, Turks/Caicos, Bahamas, Keys, SW FL, NC and New England. I think you'd be able to hear the sound of every weather forum server exploding.

Despite all the intense activity in recent years, the U.S. continues to get remarkably lucky with a lack of high-end landfalls from CV long-trackers (apart from Irma, and even that manged to thread the needle between a super-sized Andrew and a surge disaster for SW Florida [which Ian ultimately became]), with nearly all of them coming from homebrewed/close-in RI'ers including Michael, Ida and Ian.

[weeniepatrol]

Absolutely HISTORIC discussion posted (emphasis is mine) for posterity.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected
to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but
it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as
the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively
blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast. Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future.

[Teban54]

925.3mb extrap

You know how active the discussion is when this gets buried.

[CaribJam]

What is the possible impact from Hurricane Lee on southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands?

This is a very good question, the most probable scenario is no direct impacts but obviously rough seas, high surfs, and rip currents are going to be an issue. Fortunately not only is the subtropical high unlikely to be established too far west (enabling the beginning of a northward turn), A SW-NE oriented ridge is beginning to nose into the vicinity of the Bahamas/Cuba in the medium range. This feature will act to really hinder any additional westward movement until Lee reaches the western periphery of the subtropical high and begins to gain more latitude.

All that being said, this is still a day 4-5 forecast and some ensemble members do get close enough to the region for there to be some concern of a direct impact so I do thing anyone in that region should be on guard, as unlike locations further north (Bermuda, NE US, Canada) Lee would likely be near peak intensity in that vicinity.

Thanks much. This seems to be a "wait and see" situation for that entire region.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde just measured 929/18. Pressure now 927 mb.

[CryHavoc]

Dropsonde just measured 929/18. Pressure now 927 mb.

Can't wait to see what Lee does tonight with the warmed waters and nothing in his way.

[CryHavoc]

Convection perhaps not looking quite as intense for the time being, the NW CDO seems to be shrinking a bit.

[mantis83]

looks like perhaps some light southwesterly shear impinging on lee

[Woofde]

What an absolute monster of a storm, I'm very curious to see what we wake up to tomorrow. This is just an unprecedented storm. I remember everyone being shocked at Dorian. Now here we are looking at a storm with potential to pass it. Absolutely wild

[CryHavoc]

Pretty minimal banding as well for such a well-developed storm. Just a hard consolidated CDO with a band or two to each quadrant. Wonder if the CDO will grow tonight with no EWRC forecast?

[psyclone]

This is a remarkable peak season system. It's a joy to watch it go crazy while safely offshore.

[CryHavoc]

This is a remarkable peak season system. It's a joy to watch it go crazy while safely offshore.

Practically a dream system to those of us that just want to watch the 'canes blow. Even if it results in a bit less traffic than usual.

Edit: It would be insensitive to forget to mention that I am a bit worried about Atlantic Canada. Esp as the storm continues to nudge S and W of the target track.

[verruckt]

Anyone have any idea if / when data from the recon flights today will make it into the models?

[IcyTundra]

Anyone have any idea if / when data from the recon flights today will make it into the models?

Not sure but I heard someone say that 06Z should have a lot of the recon data inputted.

[Hurricaneman]

This is a remarkable peak season system. It's a joy to watch it go crazy while safely offshore.

Practically a dream system to those of us that just want to watch the 'canes blow. Even if it results in a bit less traffic than usual.

Edit: It would be insensitive to forget to mention that I am a bit worried about Atlantic Canada. Esp as the storm continues to nudge S and W of the target track.

I honestly wouldn’t rule out eastern New England yet, the models are adjusting west and as long as that happens eastern New England could get it pretty bad if this keeps adjusting west

[CryHavoc]

This is a remarkable peak season system. It's a joy to watch it go crazy while safely offshore.

Practically a dream system to those of us that just want to watch the 'canes blow. Even if it results in a bit less traffic than usual.

Edit: It would be insensitive to forget to mention that I am a bit worried about Atlantic Canada. Esp as the storm continues to nudge S and W of the target track.

I honestly wouldn’t rule out eastern New England yet, the models are adjusting west and as long as that happens eastern New England could get it pretty bad if this keeps adjusting west

To be honest, I'm trying not to think those thoughts and just hope it continues to not be likely as the models show.

[AJC3]

Hi, gang. I don't really feel like cleaning any more sidebar from this thread right now, so...