ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Deep convection over the center again.

[cycloneye]

A. 04L (CINDY)

B. 24/0000Z

C. 13.4N

D. 49.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 2113Z SSMIS PASS
GAVE GOOD CENTER FIX. INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST OVR LLCC LAST FEW HR WITH
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -89 C. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO
IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Hurricane2022]

There's any recent ASCAT or Microwave pass over Cindy ?

[Kingarabian]

ADT up to 3.5

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1672437469231579137

[Hurricane2022]

I can't wait to see if this... survives to DMIN
I mean, if this manages to become a hurricane when the recon arrives

[Teban54]

Rotating hot towers!

[Category5Kaiju]

This morning: "Wow, Cindy looks horrible, dry air and shear will definitely kill it for good!"

This evening: "We might have a hurricane very soon!"

I love tracking the tropics; it's quite fascinating to say the least to see a storm struggle, only for it to get its act together hours later.

[aspen]

It’s strange that the NHC is favoring the dissipation scenario and rejecting the idea of Cindy’s survival in the 5am discussion. All the global models, along with the HWRF, now show Cindy recovering post-shear to various degrees. Euro and CMC are weak, GFS and HWRF show hurricanes, ICON is smack in the middle.

This reminds me of Beryl ‘18 — similar track and timing, and also regenerated in the subtropics. However, there’s a chance for Cindy to get much stronger than Beryl once it’s out of the tropics.

[Hammy]

It’s strange that the NHC is favoring the dissipation scenario and rejecting the idea of Cindy’s survival in the 5am discussion. All the global models, along with the HWRF, now show Cindy recovering post-shear to various degrees. Euro and CMC are weak, GFS and HWRF show hurricanes, ICON is smack in the middle.

This reminds me of Beryl ‘18 — similar track and timing, and also regenerated in the subtropics. However, there’s a chance for Cindy to get much stronger than Beryl once it’s out of the tropics.

My guess is they're taking the cautious middle road of sorts, given there's no precedent for what the models are showing, and they could easily be wrong this far out. I suspect they'll adjust within the next day or two if the models remain consistent.

[cycloneye]

The pulsating of convection up and down continues with the shear blowing from the NW. The center is almost exposed on the NW side.

[cycloneye]

No change at 12z.

AL, 04, 2023062412, , BEST, 0, 156N, 524W, 50, 1001, TS

[wxman57]

50 kts seems quite generous. Lots of shear is exposing the center.

[aspen]

NHC still isn’t convinced by the regeneration scenario, even though the operational 00z Euro shows it, along with the rest of the globals and most of the hurricane models.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

It appears that recon may be having communication issues. Of course...

P.S. Comms issues appear resolve. Some 30-35 kt winds SE quadrant. Similar FL winds, though.

[CyclonicFury]

Based on recon this is MUCH weaker than anticipated. Only 1010 mb dropsonde at the center with 11 kt winds.

[Landy]

Latest pass shows 59kt FL winds paired with 50kt SFMR winds, can support a 50kt estimate with ... 1009mb pressure.

[Sciencerocks]

59 knt flight level/50 knt smrf. So I'd go 50 knots...