WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

This looks like a big storm! I'd say 110 knots.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/LimWeather/status/1683315207836438529

[Hurricane2022]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5859/5p0sWC.gif

This looks like a big storm! I'd say 110 knots.

This is basically a bigger and similar copy of Hurricane Mitch and STY Zeb!!

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1683330223780003840

[Hayabusa]

00z

[Hayabusa]

Very close

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1683317823295361024

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 126.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS CERTAINLY PUT ON A SHOW OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FROM 65 KNOTS 24 HOURS AGO, TO
115 KNOTS AT PRESENT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED, CLOUD FILLED 25NM WIDE EYE, WHICH HAS
SHRUNK IN SIZE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT HAS ALSO BECOME LESS
DEFINED. A 240458Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A VERY CLEAR
LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MUCH LARGER
89GHZ EYE FEATURE. THE 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS
STILL OPEN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE, WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT ISSUE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY A LINGERING EFFECT OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT IS STUBBORNLY REMAINING IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A STATIONARY BANDING COMPLEX (SBC) ARCING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLANK AND CONNECTING WITH THE EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT, AS WELL AS A SLIVER OF A DEVELOPING MOAT ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THESE FEATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITY FOR TY 05W GOING FORWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ON THE HIGHER
END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE VERY AGGRESSIVE ADT ESTIMATES, MORE IN LINE WITH THE
DPRINT (112 KTS) AND DMINT (113 KTS) ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE
BRIEFLY PEAKED AROUND 240130Z BASED ON THE EYE AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY COOLED AND WARMED
RESPECTIVELY. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
LARGER BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND AMSR2 WINDSPEED
MEASUREMENTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF KYUSHU, AS WELL AS A
CHANNEL EASTWARD INTO A WEAKENING TUTT-CELL TO THE EAST. SSTS
REMAIN VERY WARM (29-30C) BUT OHC VALUES ARE TRENDING LOWER AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND AMSR2 DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 120 KTS AT 240448Z
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 240530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER HAVING PERSISTED IN A WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKING
A TURN ONTO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, THOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OR IS JUST A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS FINALLY
BROKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM CHINA AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT SITS SOUTH OF KYUSHU. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO TRACK
ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A TRACK THAT SKIRTS THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AROUND TAU 36, THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST OF
TAIWAN, TO A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF XIAMEN, CHINA AROUND TAU
96. TROCHOIDAL MOVEMENT OR WOBBLES ABOUT THE MEAN TRACK CAN BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM REACHES PEAK
INTENSITY BUT THE OVERALL TRACK VECTOR WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST. IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHERE IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE LOW TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24 HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL CHOKE OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LEAVING JUST THE
MESOSCALE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A
WESTWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF THE SBC AND THE
MOAT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYEWALL IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) IS IN THE
OFFING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HAFS-A
MODEL PACKAGE AS WELL, WHICH SHOWS AN EWRC IN FULL SWING BY TAU 30.
HENCE A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
IS LIKELY AS HIGH AS WE'LL GET BEFORE THE EWRC, AND INTERACTION
WITH THE TERRAIN OF LUZON COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER,
DECREASING SSTS, INCREASED SHEAR AND DECREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
CHINA. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, WHICH MAY DISSIPATE FULLY BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE NOW JUST 75NM WIDE AT
TAU 48, INCREASING TO 150NM BY TAU 72. THE GFS REMAINS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AND HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST, CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN TAIWAN, WITH THIS RUN BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGE IS CONTAINED WITHIN A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED CLUSTER AROUND
THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK. ENSEMBLE MEANS, AS WELL AS THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
MEAN AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS (EXCEPT GFS)
SHOWING ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE EWRC FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY THE RIPA, RICN AND RIDE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE STILL TRIGGERED, TAKING THE PEAK TO
AN UNREALISTIC 150 KNOTS BY TAU 24, THOUGH THIS IS CONSIDERED VERY
UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST HUGS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[aspen]

This definitely looks to be making a run at STY intensity. Early on I was skeptical this would get any stronger than a Cat 3 because it looked like it would be too broad. While it is quite a large system, the circulation and core have contracted to a size that isn’t prohibitive of RI.

[Kingarabian]

It sure does look like a STY. Looks to be on its way to a T7.0 as well.

[cycloneye]

TXPQ25 KNES 241211
TCSWNP

A. 05W (DOKSURI)

B. 24/1130Z

C. 16.5N

D. 125.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT ARE 6.0 BASED
ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN T-NUMBER TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Hayabusa]

06z

[cycloneye]

WP, 05, 2023072412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1258E, 120, 935, TY

[cycloneye]

It looks like a westward jog bring it closer to Luzón.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 125.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 569 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
HAVING TURNED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO, TYPHOON
(TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS NOW PICKED UP SPEED, TO ABOUT 9 KNOTS,
THOUGH IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO EXHIBIT SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES ON
THE NORTHWEST TRACK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS INDICATES THE SYSTEM WENT
THROUGH A SHORT WEAKENING CYCLE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BURST OF
INTENSIFICATION WHICH PEAKED RIGHT AT 1200Z, WITH THE EYE
TEMPERATURE REACHING 20C AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -75C, WITH THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE 25NM WIDE EYE.
HOWEVER, OVER JUST THE LAST HOUR, THE ROBUST EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PULSE. A 241314Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE STATIONARY BANDING COMPLEX (SBC) WHICH WAS PRESENT IN EARLIER
IMAGERY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM, AND THE ASSOCIATED MOAT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR DEVOID OF
CONVECTION, NOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THIS SETUP MARKS THE EARLY STAGES OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, THE GPM IMAGE NOTED ABOVE AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF AN EYE FEATURE IN A 240952Z RCM-3 SAR IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
LIGHT OF THE ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATE OF 119 KNOTS. THE SAR WINDSPEED
MEASUREMENTS SHOWED A MAX OF 100 KNOTS, BUT DUE TO THE VERY HIGH
INCIDENCE ANGLE ABOVE 50 DEGREES, THESE WINDS THESE WINDS MAY BE A
FEW
KNOTS TOO LOW. THE SYSTEM IS STILL TAPPING INTO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF KYUSHU, WITH EASTWARD OUTFLOW
BEING ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15N 130E. SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW AND SSTS ARE NEAR
30C,
PROVIDING AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST EAST OF CENTRAL HONSHU.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 241130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE RIDGE PATTERN STEERING TY DOKSURI TO THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO FIRM UP, WITH THE PRIMARY STR CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF TOKYO, EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO LINK UP WITH THE
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF TY 05W. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE COMPLEX WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
BUT REMAIN ORIENTED ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS THROUGH
TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS THEREAFTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TY 05W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXACT ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF TY 05W, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WOBBLES
FREQUENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TYPHOONS, INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE EXACT TRACK IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON BY TAU 24,
THEN TRACK SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN AFTER TAU 48, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR XIAMEN AFTER TAU 72. FROM AN
INTENSITY PERSPECTIVE, THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY ALREADY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY, OR WILL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WHILE SHEAR,
OUTFLOW AND OCEAN CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE THE ONSET OF
THE EWRC. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PROCESS HAS ALREADY STARTED OR WILL IMMINENTLY. ONCE
THE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION (SEF) PROCESS STARTS IN EARNEST,
THE INTENSITY WILL DROP QUICKLY, THOUGH THE DURATION OF THE CYCLE
AND THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING IS UNPREDICTABLE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE EWRC, WITH A SLOW
PACE OF WEAKENING TO TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER. THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES PASSING
TAIWAN, WILL RESULT IN A MORE RAPID PACE OF WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 TO
THE WEST OF SHANGHAI.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE 1200Z RUN IS
TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED AND IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. EVEN THE NAVGEM HAS NOW JOINED THE PACK, MEANING THERE
ARE NO LONGER ANY DETERMINISTIC OR ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS
INDICATING A TRACK OVER LUZON. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GRADUALLY
EXPANDS TO 105NM BY TAU 48, AND 165NM BY TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE EASTERN OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF TAIWAN BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 THEN RECURVING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE NAVGEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND, LIE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, DEEP INTO SOUTHERN CHINA.
THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, TRACK WOBBLES AND VARIATIONS IN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE STEERING RIDGE INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS, LEADING TO AN OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY GENERAL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN BUT THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
TIMING OF ONSET, DURATION, AND IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE EWRC,
THE FORECAST IS MADE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Teban54]

[doomhaMwx]

It's tracking notably west of the 12Z JTWC forecast track. Even when accounting for a slight parallax effect from Himawari-9 satellite, this difference from the forecast is significant. Increasing chances of a direct hit on the NE tip of Mainland Luzon.

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/Sausius_wx/status/1683516804977623044

[Hurricane2022]

TPPN10 PGTW 241831

A. TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI)

B. 24/1750Z

C. 16.86N

D. 125.14E

E. ONE/HMWRI9

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1314Z 16.53N 125.57E GPMI


RAE

??