ATL: LEE - Models

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k4YSQsp4/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh192-366.gif [/url]

18z GFS… Landfall NC

Ots a few hours ago

Classic giant Cape Verde hurricane…

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k4YSQsp4/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh192-366.gif [/url]

18z GFS… Landfall NC

Ots a few hours ago

Classic giant Cape Verde hurricane…

Intensity looking very impressive but like the track, things can change quickly this far out

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure if I’m right but the GFS ensembles shifted left here…

[captainbarbossa19]

Not sure if I’m right but the GFS ensembles shifted left here…

Some of the members are bringing this close to Florida now.

[jlauderdal]

Not sure if I’m right but the GFS ensembles shifted left here…

Some of the members are bringing this close to Florida now.

Couple more cycles of this trend and fema has a problem

[SFLcane]

Not sure if I’m right but the GFS ensembles shifted left here…

Some of the members are bringing this close to Florida now.

Couple more cycles of this trend and fema has a problem

This should quite done the fish talk. Things are getting interesting folks.

[jlauderdal]

Some of the members are bringing this close to Florida now.

Couple more cycles of this trend and fema has a problem

This should quite done the fish talk. Things are getting interesting folks.

Gfs is all over the place,lets see how the euro deals with it, its been hanging tough so if it changes its tune, watch out

[hohnywx]

Couple more cycles of this trend and fema has a problem

This should quite done the fish talk. Things are getting interesting folks.

Gfs is all over the place,lets see how the euro deals with it, its been hanging tough so if it changes its tune, watch out

One could argue it already has

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1698415497560100875

[ScottNAtlanta]

This should quite done the fish talk. Things are getting interesting folks.

Gfs is all over the place,lets see how the euro deals with it, its been hanging tough so if it changes its tune, watch out

One could argue it already has

https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1698415497560100875

It's the classic JB pattern
Ridge over Troubled Water
Forces things west because they cant get out

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1698497124319592784

[CyclonicFury]

The SHIPS guidance is interestingly not that bullish, it shows an increase in westerly/northwesterly shear as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952023 09/04/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 51 51 53 56 57 57 58 58 61
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 51 51 53 56 57 57 58 58 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 43 46 49 51 53 55 56 57 59 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 14 11 16 16 19 18 19 16 26 24 24 19 21 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 3 0 3 0 -1 0 0 3 -1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 80 72 66 63 49 35 29 16 8 322 295 281 278 278 275 258 232
SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 157 156 158 163 160 151 153 157 162 161 166 166 171 167 164
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 66 67 68 66 65 61 60 61 60 64 63 67 67 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 26 24 28 27 24 29 16 12 19 9 6 -7 -18 -27 -16
200 MB DIV 14 2 -30 -46 -39 11 40 40 34 7 19 -6 19 12 41 20 70
700-850 TADV 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 -9 -11 -10 -14 -13 -9
LAND (KM) 1414 1541 1674 1714 1681 1673 1580 1458 1407 1288 1041 791 511 375 362 451 452
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.7 18.0 19.1 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.2 32.5 33.6 34.9 37.5 40.0 42.6 45.1 48.0 51.1 54.4 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 11
HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 28 37 29 33 35 58 45 50 65 48 91 73 75 68

[zzzh]

18Z eps is weaker.

[AtlanticWind]

OOz GFS much stronger this run.

10 mb lower at 60 hours out

[IcyTundra]

19 MB stronger through 78 hours

[Ianswfl]

19 MB stronger through 78 hours

Touch south too

[Stratton23]

GFS really explodes this thing, 949 mb at hour 126….

[AutoPenalti]

No way this doesn’t turn north…

[Meteorcane]

Hilarious how the ICON has basically lost this system, when the vast majority of the remainder of guidance is only getting stronger.

Much better run so far from the GFS for evading land... and looks like may avoid the Turks and Caicos as well, with the eastern US/western Atlantic trough trending a little stronger.

[SFLcane]

No way this doesn’t turn north…

Yup should recurve pretty easily here.