ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nigel Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...NIGEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Bands starting to wrap up the east side of the core now. Looking a lot more consolidated than it did this morning. Shouldn’t take long to reach hurricane status for real at this rate

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 15, 2023091806, , BEST, 0, 261N, 504W, 65, 987, HU

Good morning, Hurricane Nigel!

[abajan]

Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2023

...NIGEL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 50.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's dealing with some dry air. It should be able to mix that out soon but might delay the onset of RI for a bit

[cycloneye]

Looks like it's dealing with some dry air. It should be able to mix that out soon but might delay the onset of RI for a bit

Also may delay or even not be cat 3 with the timing getting short to blossom.

[Woofde]

A trick of the eye?

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely got some dual hot towers going on now. Probably don’t have to wait til tomorrow for RI if this continues

[ChrisH-UK]

NIgel Is trying to get wrapped up in it convection. Nigel's best chance for strengthening looks to be in the next 24 hours before shear takes effect

Source - https://col.st/t03Ff

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Nigel saw my last post and decided to get it together Looks a lot better than a few hours ago

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely seeing a banding-type eye popping out from time to time. My guess is 115 knot peak.

[aspen]

Still looks to be dealing with some dry air. I’m expecting a 90-100 kt peak, similar to Paulette and Earl. With this structure and time limit, I don’t expect anything more than a Cat 3.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still looks to be dealing with some dry air. I’m expecting a 90-100 kt peak, similar to Paulette and Earl. With this structure and time limit, I don’t expect anything more than a Cat 3.

Agreed. It seems like in cases like this where the storm’s moist envelope is surrounded by dry air, the pulse-up phase starts to tap into more of its surrounding environment, causing it to entrain dry air. Pretty sure this is what we saw with Lee at times (mid level shear exacerbated it) and a few others in recent years

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The chance to be cat 3 are diminushing as it remains at 70kt and time gets shorter to intensify before it gets to shear and cold waters.

AL, 15, 2023091818, , BEST, 0, 276N, 518W, 70, 982, HU

[WalterWhite]

The chance to be cat 3 are diminushing as it remains at 70kt and time gets shorter to intensify before it gets to shear and cold waters.

AL, 15, 2023091818, , BEST, 0, 276N, 518W, 70, 982, HU

Why is Nigel not intensifying? This storm seems to be a disappointment so far.

[cycloneye]

The chance to be cat 3 are diminushing as it remains at 70kt and time gets shorter to intensify before it gets to shear and cold waters.

AL, 15, 2023091818, , BEST, 0, 276N, 518W, 70, 982, HU

Why is Nigel not intensifying? This storm seems to be a disappointment so far.

Some dry air penetrating and not letting the inner core organize

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The key part of discussion about why the delay to intensify. Still has time to go up in intensity.

Despite seemingly conducive environmental conditions for
strengthening, Nigel's intensification appears to have been
disrupted, possibly by dry air entrainment related to some mid-level
shear. If the hurricane can solidify its inner core during the next
day or so, the very warm SSTs and relatively low shear should allow
for some strengthening in the near term. The NHC forecast has been
slightly lowered from the previous one but still shows Nigel peaking
near major hurricane intensity in 36-48 h.