ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

Has NHC ever revised an operationally tropical cyclone into a subtropical cyclone in a Tropical Cyclone Report?

IIRC, a few synoptic points for Lee 2011 were changed from tropical to subtropical in the TCR.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Gonna have to respectfully disagree with them naming this one which I rarely do. Not even close to being Tropical imo. Probably will increase awareness though for some folks so probably for the best.

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'
It had recon data to support the upgrade.

It's subtropical at best

The nhc says otherwise:

Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The strongest winds aren't even near the 'center'. This is a hybrid at best. But I'm not going to argue about it any more. Regardless it was probably the right call for awareness.

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[xironman]

The proto CDO is expanding nicely

[Nimbus]

The NHC will decide shortly, but assuming the forecast does become a hurricane at landfall, I'd think it would be a Hurricane Warning from Bogue Inlet to Oregon Inlet (incl. Pamlico Sound) and a Hurricane Watch from Oregon Inlet to the NC/VA line (incl. Albemarle Sound).

Definitely going to be some damaging core winds at landfall and power outages for hundreds of miles along the track. Hurricane status might get people to notice, that area has weathered some pretty strong winter systems but hurricane force winds are tougher on the roof.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Woofde]

The strongest winds aren't even near the 'center'. This is a hybrid at best. But I'm not going to argue about it any more. Regardless it was probably the right call for awareness.

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Imo that's just a cause of the convection being separated from the very center. That doesn't necessarily mean it isn't tropical. It's clearly working its way over the center. I agree with NHC this is tropical now.

[weeniepatrol]

It's important to remember that cyclones exist on a spectrum and whilst human nature is to paint broad strokes by labeling them into specific categories, this isn't always necessarily the most accurate way of approaching things.

This system clearly has some nontropical characteristics and origin, but it also very clearly has tropical characteristics too.

GFS analysis:

[syfr]

She's going to enter cooler SST's (by a few deg C anyway) in a short while as she nears the coast.

Moving right along though

[tolakram]

Also remember the NHC mission is not to be meteorologically accurate, it's to protect lives and property.

latest

[xironman]

She's going to enter cooler SST's (by a few deg C anyway) in a short while as she nears the coast.

Moving right along though

Hard to track though, the latest VDM is to the SW

[WalterWhite]

I see no reason why this cannot intensify into a hurricane. It will remain in warm waters for at least 12 more hours, and it only needs 5 more knots to become a hurricane.

[NC George]

Quick observation from Eastern NC (Washington), I'm just a few blocks off the Pamlico Sound. According to the 5pm map, we should be well within the TS force winds, and we're just getting a few gusts, and the peak of those aren't even hitting minimum TS force.

[Ubuntwo]

The strongest winds aren't even near the 'center'. This is a hybrid at best. But I'm not going to argue about it any more. Regardless it was probably the right call for awareness.

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They're only 30 miles or so out. You get eyewalls broader than that! Let alone a sloppy gyre type storm like Isaias, where max winds can be hundreds of miles out. Just a month ago Franklin in the Carib had max winds >200 miles from the coc. And that tight RMW would be remarkable for an ET or even subtropical cyclone.

(TS Franklin w/ Hispaniola for scale )

[sponger]

Surprised a Hurricane Warning was not issued.

[sikkar]

Monster seas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW_S5RT ... loreOceans

[Iceresistance]

Saw this in the NHC discussion

The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today.

[Sciencerocks]

Also remember the NHC mission is not to be meteorologically accurate, it's to protect lives and property.

latest
https://i.imgur.com/CY9Tb4N.png

Looks like a tropical storm so I think they made the right call.

[Sciencerocks]