ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

spoke too soon, they did bump it back north and west slightly.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[tolakram]

11am forecast

[LandoWill]

Can see the slight track change on the SWFLMD Radar

https://i.imgur.com/7X4Ovon.gif

Seems slight but its a millions and millions and millions dollar change

Which is why the slight changes matter. in before the "don't follow the line"

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1696149535582740787

[Sciencerocks]

[d3v123]

Can breathe a little easier in St. Pete, I hope?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Shear looks to be decreasing

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon just found FL winds of 55kt on the west side for the first time. Windfield gradually improving

[eastcoastFL]

Western Cuba radar station for those who might be interested

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Nimbus]

Can breathe a little easier in St. Pete, I hope?

This was the 00Z Euro 500 mb steering wind chart at 24 hours.
Ridge to the east is trending stronger on the GFS 06Z, but we are getting down to the point the official forecast probably won't swing much.

[underthwx]

I gotta tip my hat to all of you here on 2K, for providing real time, up to the minute information, for everyone in the path of this cyclone. For you members in harms way, and everyone, please be sure to take the necessary steps to protect yourselves, your families, from this storm. Even tho this cyclone is imminent, many of you in tbe path of Idalia, are busy here on the forum, providing vital information to our guests. Be sure to allow yourselves the opportunity to prepare. Yall are absolutely essential during cyclone events, and I have respect for each and everyone of yall. Thankyou for your service to the community. Be safe, be well my friends.

[eastcoastFL]

24hr Microwave image

[GCANE]

At the north -end of the Loop Current, CAPE = 8500.
I have never seen CAPE that high before.
Spreading into the east GOM.
Off shore Tampa Bay, CAPE = 5000

[eastcoastFL]

At the north -end of the Loop Current, CAPE = 8500.
I have never seen CAPE that high before.
Spreading into the east GOM.
Off shore Tampa Bay, CAPE = 5000

What are you think for tornado threats across the peninsula in the coming days?

[GCANE]

At the north -end of the Loop Current, CAPE = 8500.
I have never seen CAPE that high before.
Spreading into the east GOM.
Off shore Tampa Bay, CAPE = 5000

What are you think for tornado threats across the peninsula in the coming days?

Feeder bands for sure, EF1 to EF2 as the bands come on shore.
Could be anywhere from the Glades to the Armpit

[Beer Belly]

For her to sit there this long and still being draining energy from the water speaks to the depth of the thermocline. Not only is the water hot, but it is hot to an appreciable depth.

[tolakram]

Can breathe a little easier in St. Pete, I hope?

Tampa area is under a hurricane warning. That's the info you should work with, not a line or a cone. I understand your statement is not that serious, just wondering if you can worry less, but if you're under a warning, decide not to act and end up getting hit ... not a situation I would want to be in. I would have my mini vacation planned well inland and hope I can get back home once it passes.

[eastcoastFL]

At the north -end of the Loop Current, CAPE = 8500.
I have never seen CAPE that high before.
Spreading into the east GOM.
Off shore Tampa Bay, CAPE = 5000

What are you think for tornado threats across the peninsula in the coming days?

Feeder bands for sure, EF1 to EF2 as the bands come on shore.
Could be anywhere from the Glades to the Armpit

Sounds about right, I saw a mention of it in our local area discussion this morning and thought I better ask you.

[underthwx]

This is a portion from the 10 am NHC discussion of Idalia....."A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected, as another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States."....so hopefully, Idalia will pass by quickly...

[Nimbus]

At the north -end of the Loop Current, CAPE = 8500.
I have never seen CAPE that high before.
Spreading into the east GOM.
Off shore Tampa Bay, CAPE = 5000

What are you think for tornado threats across the peninsula in the coming days?

Feeder bands for sure, EF1 to EF2 as the bands come on shore.
Could be anywhere from the Glades to the Armpit

That is a good point to remember the squalls bring strong winds down to the surface hundreds of miles out form the center.

Tracking the eyewall may not be too difficult after we reach hurricane status.
If the eyewall tracks up route 98 towards the State capital at landfall the forecaster signature will probably read Tate.