ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

[ElectricStorm]

Pass barely supports 100kts, maybe closer to 95kts

[brad512]

Wow, and I had a feeling I was maybe being too harsh on it

[GeneralChow]

Damn 957Mbs. Missed it by one (956). Center is 18.85W 55.9N. This moving West.

[dukeblue219]

Pass barely supports 100kts

And the center looks to be south of 19N, too

[CentralTxAggie]

I was measuring model predictions of Lee's 39 mph wind field size as it passes east of Cape Cod. I get 270/270/215/230 (NE/SE/SW/NW). That would put Cape Cod in 40-45 mph winds and coastal Maine at 30-40 mph winds as it heads toward Halifax. Wind field will be more than twice what it is now, but the winds will not be nearly as strong near the center. Even if it had the same pressure as now, the winds would be lower due to the expanded pressure gradient.

Watching closely, will be in Ellsworth, ME next week...in our RV!

[Meteorcane]

Wow absolutely gutted by the shear today... would have thought it would be a little more resilient with how robust a core it had built up yesterday (although like some pointed out it never had an ULAC directly overhead. I guess (largely) motion-perpendicular shear can still really wreck established (but small) cores.

We will see what state this ends up in after it comes out of the enhanced shear zone (probably around this time tomorrow), you would expect it would be able to recover a bit, but this is a major disruption to the overall core dynamics obviously.

[abajan]

Not sure if this has already been shared:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/OwQl35PszLI[/youtube]

[PavelGaborik10]

From some of the most impressive deepening to some of the most impressive unexpected weakening I can remember.

This thing has its work cut out for it if it wants to remain even a minimal cat 3, I'm having doubts.

[Chris90]

Microwave imagery (few posts above) shows a larger eye starting to build in the lower levels, but it's not really present in the mid levels yet. If Lee can build upwards with that larger eye he might be able to fight off the shear a bit better, or if the shear lets up enough he might be able to quickly reorganize and start deepening again once the inner eye dies, which shouldn't take too much, shear has been going full Apollo Creed on the original eye for hours now. I would anticipate another round of deepening and a second peak within the next 48-72 hours.

[Tekken_Guy]

It would just be our luck if this thing weakened to the point it misses the weakness, gets in the gulf and comes back to life.

That’s very unlikely to happen and it doesn’t look like shear will really knock it off course.

[cstrunk]

It would just be our luck if this thing weakened to the point it misses the weakness, gets in the gulf and comes back to life.

I'd like to hear more thoughts about this. I recall that weaker storms trend left, and stronger storms trend right. With a significantly weaker Lee, how does that impact the track?

[dukeblue219]

Little trouble finding the center there, eh?

[cycloneye]

Pressure at VDM is 958 mbs and ragged eye.

537
URNT12 KWBC 082354
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 08/23:15:06Z
B. 18.90 deg N 055.89 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 958 mb
E. NA
F. RAGGED EYE
G. E09/10/8
H. 95 kt
I. 236 deg 5 nm 23:13:58Z
J. 352 deg 90 kt
K. 241 deg 7 nm 23:13:20Z
L. 89 kt
M. 060 deg 9 nm 23:17:33Z
N. 138 deg 107 kt
O. 060 deg 12 nm 23:18:12Z
P. 26 C / 2456 m
Q. 25 C / 2404 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0513A LEE OB 04
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 060 / 12 NM 23:18:12Z

[viberama]

Don't forget all the fuel Franklin used up. SST's are lower in the area that Lee is forecast to transverse.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be getting its core back together, could be the same strength while doing this and could deepen quite quickly tomorrow as it looks like shear is finally lessening

[galaxy401]

From some of the most impressive deepening to some of the most impressive unexpected weakening I can remember.

This thing has its work cut out for it if it wants to remain even a minimal cat 3, I'm having doubts.

By having doubts do you mean that it could keep weakening until Tropical Storm or will it even restrengthen? Feel like that phrase is vague.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to be getting its core back together, could be the same strength while doing this and could deepen quite quickly tomorrow

We'll see, I think we might see some continued weakening for a bit but shear could lessen in about 24 hours so I think we'll see another strengthening phase starting around then, as long as the shear doesn't stick around longer than expected.

[ThunderForce]

It does look like Lee is shaping up a bit again on the Tropical Tidbits IR radar, but the wind shear really did a number. It doesn't look like Lee's been moving north much, if at all, the past hour or so either which is worrisome given the possible track implications down the line... but it's hard to tell with the eye gone.

[brad512]

I remember someone posting the shear map yesterday and I saw the red at ~25kts just ahead of it, and remember thinking this is about the only thing that makes the environment for Lee potentially less than perfect, I thought it wouldn't affect it this much but I guess its small core just couldn't handle the disruption.