ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mesoamv/2023/10L/plots/plot.gif

You can see the wind field is pretty large to the east

Definitely east of 85 now.

[skillz305]

I’m pretty sure that mega burst of convection towards the CoC will pull the CoC East under it. Models don’t compensate for these things in real time. Just BOLO regardless of where you are in Florida.

[GCANE]

Latest microwave sounding showing that she is pulling more heat out of the water.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mesoamv/2023/10L/plots/plot.gif

You can see the wind field is pretty large to the east

Definitely east of 85 now.

So whatcha think Caneman? Is this thing gonna need to have another path correction based on the eastern location of the center compared to the initial model initiations? Do you think the landfall could change much if so?

[Michele B]

Land interaction with cuba wil just spread the windfield to the east.

Can you explain why this is?

[eastcoastFL]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mesoamv/2023/10L/plots/plot.gif

You can see the wind field is pretty large to the east

Definitely east of 85 now.

It appears to be but I’m struggling to pinpoint the center on visible.

[Ianswfl]

Land interaction with cuba wil just spread the windfield to the east.

Can you explain why this is?

I wonder if it adjusts more east and expanded windfield if this cranks up enough if SWFL will be like the east coast in Irma and get hurricane force gusts for hours? While that won't cause severe structure damage it will cause a lot of power outages.

[eastcoastFL]

Steadily strengthening over the past 12 hours

[FLpanhandle91]

Convection still struggling to rotate upshear. It's getting there though.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is a portion from the 10 am NHC discussion of Idalia....."A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected, as another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States."....so hopefully, Idalia will pass by quickly...

Yes, I"m so glad this is expected to be fast mover, as opposed to crawling slowly and dumping tons of rain like some storms in the past have done.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

From the models thread, chris_fit wrote:
HWRF Trend... Slower and weaker.
https://i.imgur.com/y59NmXB.gif

So my question is:
Wouldn't slower movement likely result in a more easterly path, giving the dip in the jet more time to dig and have greater influence on Idalia's path/landfall?

[MetroMike]

Pinellas County right on the coast only is having zone A evacuated at this point! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

[underthwx]

Land interaction with cuba wil just spread the windfield to the east.

Can you explain why this is?

I was curious as well, so I read this, it's a segment from, "Hurricanes Science and Society"....
Interaction between a Hurricane and the Land

"As a hurricane approaches land, portions of the outer circulation start to include air originating over land. This land-based air is cooler and drier than the air in the hurricane that originated over water. This portion of the circulation over land is initially efficient in transporting the cooler, drier air towards the center of the hurricane because of the increased friction over land relative to over the ocean .In the right-front quadrant of the hurricane, the variation in inflow can help create areas of strong air convergence in the lower troposphere. These convergence zones provide a favorable environment for outer rainbands that are capable of severe weather, including tornadoes, well before the storm center crosses the coast."....I hope this helps....

[eastcoastFL]

Convection still struggling to rotate upshear. It's getting there though.
https://i.imgur.com/9WuIJoW.gif

I’ve been watching this radar also and I do wonder how good the radar set up is. Could it be missing something ?

[eastcoastFL]

Pinellas County right on the coast has not issued any evacuation orders yet! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

Probably going to wait for 5pm

[fllawyer]

Pinellas County right on the coast has not issued any evacuation orders yet! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

Probably going to wait for 5pm

Appears they have already issued evac orders:

https://pinellas.gov/news/idalia-county-orders-mandatory-evacuations-of-zone-a-mobile-home-residents/

[eastcoastFL]

Pinellas County right on the coast has not issued any evacuation orders yet! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

Probably going to wait for 5pm

Appears they have already issued evac orders:

https://pinellas.gov/news/idalia-county-orders-mandatory-evacuations-of-zone-a-mobile-home-residents/

Thanks. Makes sense

[MetroMike]

Probably going to wait for 5pm

Appears they have already issued evac orders:

https://pinellas.gov/news/idalia-county-orders-mandatory-evacuations-of-zone-a-mobile-home-residents/

Thanks. Makes sense

Corrected post TY

[hiflyer]

Interesting


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[canebeard]

For us here in the north tampa area. I ain't gonna lie, i am -removed- it follows their west trend they started at 11am

Not likely, but a possibility: based on 12 z GFS trend: sharpening, retrograding upper trough in w Gulf in 2 days, ends up cutting off a closed low near Texas coast. Partially caused by expanding outflow from hurricane. If this happens, landfall will be further west and stronger storm. How about Mexico Beach? Murphy's law.

And by the way, Franklin and Idalia say:-- El Nino be damned.