SconnieCane wrote:869MB wrote:Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture. Just 24 to 36 hours ago, I really didn't think such a pattern would ever materialize. But now, I'm not quite so sure. The latest Operational GFS and Euro runs are kind of trending in that direction but in different manners. Nonetheless, most of us have been doing this long enough to know to never take mid to long-range upper patterns verbatim, and calling Fish Storm or CONUS strike based upon these models is premature. With that being said, I have the Hugo upper-level pattern memorized and will be very closely observing how the models resolve the pattern over the forthcoming days.
The U.S. 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Mean between 8/15/1989 and 8/19/1989...
https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/comphour.cEycrb_WAj.gif
12Z Euro run at 240hrs..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090312&fh=12
For those of you not familiar with Hurricane Hugo, here's a link for reference...
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo
https://www.weather.gov/images/ilm/climate/hugo/Hugo_track2.png
An aside, but I've long been curious about the "135 MPH" often attributed to Hugo's SC landfall. With the way NHC's kt-to-MPH conversion and rounding works, 135 MPH would never be operationally reported in an advisory. It would either be 115 kt = 132.3 MPH-rounds down to 130 MPH (the 2012 tweaks to the SSHWS made this the low end of Category 4, rather than having it remain within Category 3 by 1 MPH as previously); or 120 kt = 138.1 MPH-rounds up to 140 MPH. So which one was Hugo?
When Hugo was 115kt the conversion to mph was 135mph, as were all 115kt cat4s prior to 2012, so that it would fit within the category when rounding to 5mph increments.
