ATL: LEE - Models

[Stratton23]

Given the major inconsistencies on the placement and strength of the eastern US trough, its going to be at least another 5-6 days before we can confidently say if this is a fish storm or not, still major uncertainty remains

[AtlanticWind]

No way this doesn’t turn north…

Yup should recurve pretty easily here.

Yes , but this is still so far out in time. Basically la la land.

[Meteorcane]

Canadian a little closer to the Bahamas, but otherwise similar story to the 00Z GFS. Still not within 7 days and the system hasn't organized yet so not written in stone, but still the favored solution looks like a recurve. Fortunately this isn't the case where we are banking on one fortuitously timed shortwave breaking up an extended period of ridging, rather in this case the longwave pattern favors a trough over the eastern US so it would really be an "unlucky" scenario to get a ridge temporarily building in rather than the reverse.

[mantis83]

stronger troughing on guidance tonight, should recurve safely away from land, but a good ace producer

[Category5Kaiju]

So it looked like it wanted to recurve...then a huge ridge comes in and kind of blocks the storm?

So a pseudo-recurve?

[IcyTundra]

Ridge building in mid recurve maybe not OTS.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z looks like it wants to go to jersey

[AtlanticWind]

Canadian a little closer to the Bahamas, but otherwise similar story to the 00Z GFS. Still not within 7 days and the system hasn't organized yet so not written in stone, but still the favored solution looks like a recurve. Fortunately this isn't the case where we are banking on one fortuitously timed shortwave breaking up an extended period of ridging, rather in this case the longwave pattern favors a trough over the eastern US so it would really be an "unlucky" scenario to get a ridge temporarily building in rather than the reverse.

Just don’t see how the “favored solution is a recurve” when the 18 z Gfs had this hitting the US and this run is barely off N Carolina.

[Stratton23]

Yeah that GFS run is not a safe recurve by any means, thats cutting it way too close for comfort for the carolinas

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah anyone who looks at this pattern and thinks this is a safe recurve is just incorrect.

[Cpv17]

Yeah anyone who looks at this pattern and thinks this is a safe recurve is just incorrect.

https://i.imgur.com/lAYObKN.png

Yikes! That’s a scary look.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's also kind of concerning is that assuming the GFS's most recent run verifies, this future system will likely have no issues with thermodynamics, even if it is off the coast of the Eastern Seaboard. Look at how warm the waters are up there. In fact, there is even a small region of 30+ C water near North Carolina/Virginia's latitude!

[Meteorcane]

Canadian a little closer to the Bahamas, but otherwise similar story to the 00Z GFS. Still not within 7 days and the system hasn't organized yet so not written in stone, but still the favored solution looks like a recurve. Fortunately this isn't the case where we are banking on one fortuitously timed shortwave breaking up an extended period of ridging, rather in this case the longwave pattern favors a trough over the eastern US so it would really be an "unlucky" scenario to get a ridge temporarily building in rather than the reverse.

Just don’t see how the “favored solution is a recurve” when the 18 z Gfs had this hitting the US and this run is barely off N Carolina.

The ensemble clusters favor troughing over the eastern US (historically the most robust predictor of the day 8-10 mean height fields) in the day 8-10 period see (https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/wk ... egstr=EAST), although you could argue clusters 3/4 (which are dominated by GEFS and CMCE members) are less enthusiastic.

At the end of the day we are talking about a 240 hour forecast, there could certainly be a thumb ridge that builds overhead and pushes it back west, or forces the east coast trough to take on a negative tilt, preventing a total recurve... but the longwave pattern not one that favors that solution so it is a lower probability, if we were in a western US trough east coast ridge longwave pattern it would be a different story.

[mantis83]

Canadian a little closer to the Bahamas, but otherwise similar story to the 00Z GFS. Still not within 7 days and the system hasn't organized yet so not written in stone, but still the favored solution looks like a recurve. Fortunately this isn't the case where we are banking on one fortuitously timed shortwave breaking up an extended period of ridging, rather in this case the longwave pattern favors a trough over the eastern US so it would really be an "unlucky" scenario to get a ridge temporarily building in rather than the reverse.

Just don’t see how the “favored solution is a recurve” when the 18 z Gfs had this hitting the US and this run is barely off N Carolina.

The ensemble clusters favor troughing over the eastern US (historically the most robust predictor of the day 8-10 mean height fields) in the day 8-10 period see (https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/wk ... egstr=EAST), although you could argue clusters 3/4 (which are dominated by GEFS and CMCE members) are less enthusiastic.

At the end of the day we are talking about a 240 hour forecast, there could certainly be a thumb ridge that builds overhead and pushes it back west, or forces the east coast trough to take on a negative tilt, preventing a total recurve... but the longwave pattern not one that favors that solution so it is a lower probability, if we were in a western US trough east coast ridge longwave pattern it would be a different story.

agree strongly with this

[IcyTundra]

00Z model guidance is very bullish on the intensity could be a major by Friday if the GFS and hurricane models are right.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued.

[mantis83]

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued.

yup, a safe recurve well east of the coast is looking more and more likely

[weeniepatrol]

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued.

yup, a safe recurve well east of the coast is looking more and more likely

we got it after the first ten times

[Hurricane Mike]

Anything is possible but everyone seems pretty definitive early on so they may be on to something. Perhaps I should join the bandwagon. I guess I just didn't think the long-range models showed a convincing enough set-up for a system to be quickly swept to sea without at the very least slowing down near the Bahamas. 

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued.

yup, a safe recurve well east of the coast is looking more and more likely

Climo heavily favors a miss of the CONUS from a TCG in the E MDR in Sept, especially with it not La Niña. Climo based odds are somewhere around 80% of no CONUS hit, easily the best bet. However, the problem this far out, especially with no TC center to track yet, is that nobody knows for sure that this won't be one of the 20% that do hit. It isn't as if the chance were something tiny like 5%. Also, if TCG doesn't occur until the W MDR, then that 80% stat becomes irrelevant.

Over the next few days we should get a clearer picture. We need to make sure that this won't be a pretty rare long tracking Sep El Niño US hit like Florence of 2018, Ivan of 2004, and Frederic of 1979. Granted, those three were all during a weak El Niño. However, 2023's much stronger El Nino has yet to act much like one.

One thing I will say about the GFS is that it may have a left bias these days based on how it did with Ian and Idalia. Any thoughts about this?

Edit: 0Z UKMET (goes out 168 hours) is nearly identical to its prior run trackwise though it is weaker. 0Z EPS is pretty similar to its prior couple of runs strongly favoring no NE Caribbean, Bahamas, or CONUS hit.